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Missouri 58, Murray State 14: Beyond the box score

By Bill Connelly
Bill Carter

Confused? Visit the Advanced Stats glossary here. Or just skip to the words. I won't be offended. (Okay, I'll only be a little offended.)

Missouri 58, Murray State 14
Murray St. Missouri Murray St. Missouri
Close % 67.3% STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position % 26.7% 57.5% Success Rate 31.3% 53.3%
Leverage % 45.3% 50.6% PPP 0.41 0.54
S&P 0.721 1.076
TOTAL
EqPts 25.9 67.5 PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate 40.0% 61.0% Success Rate 44.1% 63.6%
Close PPP 0.47 0.80 PPP 0.50 0.89
Close S&P 0.869 1.415 S&P 0.938 1.530
RUSHING TURNOVERS
EqPts 11.8 35.7 Number 3 1
Close Success Rate 39.1% 65.4% Turnover Pts 10.1 4.0
Close PPP 0.52 0.78 Turnover Pts Margin -6.1 +6.1
Close S&P 0.906 1.429
Line Yards/carry 3.86 4.14 Q1 S&P 1.125 1.553
Q2 S&P 0.546 1.167
PASSING Q3 S&P 0.181 1.545
EqPts 14.2 31.8 Q4 S&P 0.438 0.743
Close Success Rate 40.7% 57.6%
Close PPP 0.43 0.83 1st Down S&P 0.816 1.453
Close S&P 0.837 1.404 2nd Down S&P 0.453 1.332
SD/PD Sack Rate 0.0% / 14.3% 0.0% / 10.0% 3rd Down S&P 0.791 1.138
Projected Pt. Margin: Missouri +47.7 | Actual Pt. Margin: Missouri +44

Because it's already Wednesday (I'm always running way behind in the first week), and because the Trib has already done the targets-and-catches part anyway, we'll keep this brief. Well, my version of brief, anyway.

Five Thoughts

  1. Murray State's yards per play, first 3 drives: 7.1. After: 2.1. That matches up pretty well with Q1 S&P and rest-of-game S&P, no?

  2. Here are the target-and-catch numbers broken out into standard downs and passing downs (note: this is only for when the game was deemed "close", i.e. within 24 points in the first half, 21 in the third quarter):

    Standard Downs
    Dorial Green-Beckham: 5 targets, 3 catches, 75 yards
    Bud Sasser: 4 targets, 3 catches, 30 yards
    Jaleel Clark: 4 targets, 3 catches, 30 yards
    L'Damian Washington: 3 targets, 2 catches, 28 yards
    Jimmie Hunt: 3 targets, 2 catches, 26 yards
    Darius White: 2 targets, 2 catches, 44 yards
    Sean Culkin: 1 target, 1 catch, 6 yards

    Passing Downs
    Marcus Lucas: 4 targets, 3 catches, 23 yards
    Jaleel Clark: 1 target, 1 catch, 12 yards
    Bud Sasser: 1 target, 1 catch, 11 yards
    DGB: 1 target, 1 catch, 8 yards
    Henry Josey: 1 target, 1 catch, 2 yards

    So James Franklin went with the less-proven (or just younger) guys on standard downs, then leaned on the senior rock (Lucas) on passing downs.

  3. Passing downs were an issue last season, to put it kindly. Obviously Murray State's defense isn't the best litmus test, but it's still encouraging to see a 64 percent success rate on passing downs.

  4. Field position domination. This is reflected in average starting field position as well: Mizzou averaged a start at the 35-yard line, and Murray State averaged the 23. (Andrew Baggett is going to be an incredible weapon in that regard this year.)

  5. Again, Murray State isn't very good. Obviously. But 4.14 line yards per carry is tremendous. Then again, Mizzou averaged 4.45 against SE Louisiana last year, so let's hold that thought for another week...

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