Georgia 34, Missouri 0
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|Close Rate (non-garbage time)||80.8%|
|Avg Starting FP||41.9||22.3||29.8|
|Points Per Opportunity||4.25||N/A||4.70|
* A scoring opportunity occurs when an offense gets a first down inside the opponent's 40 (or scores from outside the 40).
** Leverage Rate = Standard Downs / (Standard Downs + Passing Downs)
*** When using IsoPPP, the S&P formula is (0.8*Success Rate) + (0.2*IsoPPP)
|EqPts (what's this?)||Georgia||Missouri|
|Success Rate (what's this?)||Georgia||Missouri||Nat'l Avg|
|IsoPPP (what's this?)||Georgia||Missouri||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Stats||Georgia||Missouri||Nat'l Avg|
|Line Yards/Carry (what's this?)||2.76||3.41||2.92|
|Std. Downs Sack Rt.||0.0%||7.7%||4.7%|
|Pass. Downs Sack Rt.||14.3%||12.5%||7.3%|
|Turnover Points (what's this?)||0.0||18.5|
|Turnover Margin||Georgia +5|
|Exp. TO Margin||Georgia +0.15|
|TO Luck (Margin vs. Exp. Margin)||Georgia +4.85|
|TO Points Margin||Georgia +18.5 points|
|1st Down S&P||0.497||0.404|
|2nd Down S&P||0.467||0.387|
|3rd Down S&P||0.537||N/A|
|Projected Scoring Margin: Georgia by 40.4|
|Actual Scoring Margin: Georgia by 34|
Anytime there's an "N/A" in one of your columns, that's probably bad news. That probably means there's a zero in a denominator.
Missouri had three of them: Points Per Opportunity (there were no opportunities), fourth-quarter S&P (IsoPPP, part of the S&P equation, is Equivalent Points divided by Successful Plays, and there were no successes), and third-down S&P (ditto). Guh.
Blocking when it counts
I had to check and make sure that Missouri's Line Yardage average (3.41) was correct. It was ... with an asterisk. First quarter: 1.43. Second quarter: 3.80. Third quarter: 4.5. Fourth quarter: -0.9. So the blocking was sketchy when Georgia was building a lead, then got better. This certainly builds a case that maybe Mizzou should have leaned on the run a bit more in the middle of the game when Maty Mauk was struggling to find the plot, but Mizzou had so few plays, period, that there was no chance to find any sort of play-calling rhythm regardless.
Targets and catches
Jimmie Hunt: 4 targets, 2 catches, 29 yards (7.3 per target), 2 INT
Marcus Murphy: 4 targets, 2 catches, 16 yards (4.0 per target), 2 INT
Bud Sasser: 3 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards (4.7 per target)
J'Mon Moore: 2 targets, 2 catches, 33 yards (16.5 per target)
Sean Culkin: 2 targets, 0 catches
Lawrence Lee: 1 target, 1 catch, 5 yards
Russell Hansbrough: 1 target, 0 catches
Wesley Leftwich: 1 target, 0 catches
I've wondered at times why Maty Mauk doesn't try to lean on Bud Sasser as he did Dorial Green-Beckham last year; it's not that I think Sasser is at DGB's level -- it's that he's still the best option, and throwing 50/50 balls his way is still better than scrambling into pressure or throwing to others.
I think part of it is simply that Sasser isn't even partially open a good portion of the time. He's a No. 2 getting covered by No. 1 corners. I mentioned heading into the year that I feared Mizzou didn't have a true No. 1, and that the Tigers would need to take advantage of depth over star power. And as we've seen, Mizzou only has three ready-for-prime-time receivers, and one has been hurt for the last 2+ games. (And the other two -- Sasser and Hunt -- each had drops on Saturday and in other games.) None of the backups have even come close to stepping up, though I was intrigued by what I saw from J'Mon Moore on Saturday, and I've seen just enough from Lawrence Lee to assume he'll be pretty good in 2015. (And thank goodness for that.)
So if you don't have depth and you don't have a big-time No. 1 ... you don't have much. And now you've got a quarterback who doesn't know where to look, and who seems to be missing open receivers even when they do exist. Bad times, and I don't know how you fix it mid-season.
And speaking of the QB...
No. 16 bounced back, too (eventually)
Mizzou OL coach AJ Ricker says defenses are defending Mauk similarly to ways teams played Brad Smith when Ricker was MU's center.— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) October 13, 2014
Ricker: vs Brad Smith, defenses played safeties deep, minimal blitzes, used stunts/twists up front to keep Smith in pocket.— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) October 13, 2014
Granted, they want(ed) to keep them in the pocket for totally different reasons, but it's an interesting thought. And it certainly meshes with my "more moving pockets" idea.
Havoc Rate: Georgia 25.6% (11 in 43 plays), Missouri 14.9% (13 in 87 plays)
Seven of Georgia's 11 Havoc plays (four interceptions, three sacks) were directly tied to Mauk, which obviously isn't a great look.
Aarion Penton: 3.0 (1 TFL, 1 FF, 1 PBU)
Harold Brantley: 2.0 (1.0 sacks, 1.0 other TFL)
Charles Harris: 2.0 (1.0 sacks, 1.0 other TFL)
Markus Golden: 1.5 (1.5 TFL)
Shane Ray: 1.0 (1 TFL)
Matt Hoch: 1.0 (1 TFL)
Josh Augusta: 1.0 (1 TFL)
Tyler Hunt: 1.0 (1 FF)
Donavin Newsom: 0.5 (0.5 TFL)
From the WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR!! department, one has to love seeing a true sophomore (Penton), redshirt sophomore (Brantley), and redshirt freshman (Harris) leading the way during a pretty strong defensive performance, with two other sophomores (Augusta, Newsom) getting on the board.
Obviously Georgia's rushing success rate wouldn't have been 36 percent if Todd Gurley had been playing, but the Mizzou defensive front really did do a hell of a job. Georgia also had no semblance of big plays. And while Georgia did have more success than you'd like on passing downs, the problem on those downs wasn't Georgia's 35 percent success rate ... it was Mizzou's nine percent success rate.
The good news:
Florida's defense actually ranks lower than Georgia's right now. The bad news: it's Florida's pass defense that has been the problem. The Gators' run defense has been much, much better than Georgia's. So any hope of leaning on the run to set up the pass might be problematic.
Oh we're totally beating Florida now...
Big rainbow over Columbia right now. Pinkel's in the Mizzou parking lot snapping pictures of it. "Where trouble melts like lemon drops ..."— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) October 13, 2014
Double Rainbow!! pic.twitter.com/vPTEuccAeT— Dave Matter (@Dave_Matter) October 13, 2014