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Missouri 56, Valparaiso 41: Study Hall

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Your Trifecta: Clark-Rosburg-Allen. Two games in, five of 10 players in the rotation have landed a spot in the Trifecta so far. And Johnathan Williams III hasn't been one of them.

Dak Dillon-USA TODAY Sports

MUTIGERS.COM: Tigers Down Valpo, 56-41, for Anderson's First Mizzou Win
The Trib: Missouri, Anderson get first victory over Valparaiso
Post-Dispatch: Tigers get Anderson his first win
PowerMizzou: Win Number One
The Missourian: Missouri basketball gets its first win of the season

Missouri 56, Valparaiso 41

Mizzou
Valparaiso
Pace (No. of Possessions) 58.2
Points Per Possession (PPP) 0.96 0.70
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.12 0.89
2-PT FG% 48.5% 39.3%
3-PT FG% 23.5% 22.2%
FT% 85.7% 58.3%
True Shooting % 49.9% 40.0%
Mizzou Valparaiso
Assists 9 8
Steals 4 3
Turnovers 12 14
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.08 0.79
Mizzou Valparaiso
Expected Offensive Rebounds 10.8 11.7
Offensive Rebounds 10 6
Difference -0.8 -5.7
  • We kind of knew what to expect heading into this season, and as Sam has been writing as well, it has more or less come to fruition. This is a team that will play hard, rebound reasonably well, force some turnovers and go minutes at a time without putting the ball in the basket. Averaging 0.96 points per possession is pretty dreadful, even if holding Valpo to 0.70 is impressive.

  • I will say that the 2-point shooting has been decent. You want to be over 50%, but Mizzou's been at almost 50% in both games (for frame of reference, a 48.5% average for the season would have ranked 175th in the country last year, not great, not terrible). It could be worse. It could, for instance, be the 3-point shooting.

  • Mizzou is 9-for-40 from 3-point range in two games (22.5%) and is 23-for-84 (27.4%) if you include the exhibition games. That's horrific. Over the weekend, Keith Shamburger went 3-for-6 (50%), and the rest of the team went 6-for-34 (18%). The good news is, that's almost impossibly bad -- of 351 Division 1 teams last year, only 18 shot below 30% from 3-point range for the season. Still ... this most certainly isn't going to be a strength. Again, we knew that, but damn.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player
AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Wes Clark 19.5 0.61 32 Min, 16 Pts (4-8 FG, 2-3 3PT, 6-6 FT), 6 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 Blk, 4 TO, 2 PF
Ryan Rosburg 9.3 0.36 26 Min, 4 Pts (1-3 FG, 2-4 FT), 8 Reb (3 Off), 1 Ast, 2 Blk, 2 PF
D'Angelo Allen 7.2 0.56 13 Min, 4 Pts (2-3 FG, 0-1 3PT), 3 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 2 PF
Johnathan Williams III 6.2 0.23 27 Min, 10 Pts (5-11 FG, 0-2 3PT), 6 Reb (1 Off), 1 TO, 3 PF
Montaque Gill-Caesar 4.8 0.17 28 Min, 9 Pts (4-13 FG, 1-6 3PT), 5 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF
Keanau Post 4.2 0.38 11 Min, 4 Pts (2-3 FG), 3 Reb (1 Off), 1 Blk, 1 TO, 2 PF
Keith Shamburger 2.9 0.08 37 Min, 5 Pts (1-2 FG, 1-2 3PT, 2-2 FT), 1 Reb, 3 Ast, 4 TO, 1 PF
Namon Wright 1.3 0.11 12 Min, 0 Pts (0-2 FG, 0-1 3PT), 2 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl
Tramaine Isabell 0.6 0.05 12 Min, 4 Pts (1-5 FG, 0-2 3PT, 2-2 FT), 1 Reb, 2 PF
Deuce Bello 0.0 0.00 2 Min, 0 Pts
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
Poss.
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Wes Clark 27% 41% 3.4 37% 25% 25% 13%
Ryan Rosburg 11% 38% 1.9 42% 21% 37% 0%
D'Angelo Allen 14% 68% 2.4 66% 34% 0% 0%
Johnathan Williams III 26% 37% 1.5 0% 92% 0% 8%
Montaque Gill-Caesar 29% 27% 2.5 30% 65% 0% 5
Keanau Post 21% 45% 1.3 0% 75% 0% 25%
Keith Shamburger 11% 34% 2.5 67% 8% 10% 15%
Namon Wright 10% 16% 2.3 75% 25% 0% 0%
Tramaine Isabell 29% 28% 2.2 0% 66% 34% 0%
Deuce Bello 0% N/A 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A
  • Wes Clark is filling every line of the box score. He even made two of three 3-balls, which made him 3-for-9 for the season. Granted, he shot horribly against UMKC, but through two games I'm not sure how much better he could be playing, especially considering he's basically playing shooting guard.

  • Solid performance by Ryan Rosburg. One to two easy buckets per game, combined with six to eight rebounds and maybe a block; that's what I'm hoping for from him, and we've seen it once in two games so far. And he and Post combined for eight points and 11 rebounds.

  • Hello, D'Angelo Allen. One thing I like about the Adj. Game Score concept is that it rewards box score fillers, not just guys who score. So he takes three shots but makes the trifecta because of his work on the glass and elsewhere. (And because others didn't do enough to make the trifecta.)

  • J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. J3 is rusty. I'm just going to keep telling myself this.

  • Teki Gill-Caesar is in an interesting position this year. He's going to have to take shots whether they're falling or not because if he doesn't, I'm not sure who else will. I still hope/think that J3 comes around in the coming weeks, but until then, basically let Teki (or an open 3-point shooter) put it up, then crash the boards.

  • Two minutes for Bello. Interesting.

Summary

The first weekend of the season has basically confirmed all assumptions that we had about this team. Guys will play hard, the offense will stink out loud for long stretches, and you will be a lot healthier if you simply take any and all expectations off of the table and look at this season as one giant (and hopefully good) progress report.

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.