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Study Hall: Missouri 78, Elon 73

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You know how winning the lottery sometimes ruins people's lives because they don't know how to live with prosperity and all of the things that come with it?

Dak Dillon-USA TODAY Sports

Your Trifecta: Shamburger-JW3-Allen.

Your Season Trifecta Totals: Teki 11 points, Shamburger 11, J3 11, Clark nine, Wright six, Allen two, Rosburg two, Isabell one, Post one. Clark got all his points early, and J3 has gotten all his points lately.

Missouri 78, Elon 73

Mizzou
Elon
Pace (No. of Possessions) 67.5
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.16 1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.53 1.09
2-PT FG% 45.5% 35.6%
3-PT FG% 44.4% 36.4%
FT% 80.0% 70.8%
True Shooting % 60.7% 47.1%
Mizzou Elon
Assists 10 8
Steals 5 4
Turnovers 12 11
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.25 1.09
Mizzou Elon
Expected Offensive Rebounds 10.9 16.5
Offensive Rebounds 9 19
Difference -1.9 +2.5
  • A few weeks ago, it seemed obvious that Kim Anderson's first Mizzou basketball team would be one that played hard defense, hit the glass hard, and simply tried to scrape by on the offensive side of the court. We're beginning to see the opposite. In terms of the basic components listed at Ken Pomeroy's site, Mizzou ranks in the top 125 in exactly two categories: 3-point shooting and FTA-FGA. The Tigers are making 3s (something we really didn't expect to see a while back) and getting to the line ... and that's it. 

  • The defense is regressing quickly, and opponents have quickly figured out how awful the Tigers' post players are playing. (Note: I said "are playing" and not simply "are" because we know that while Ryan Rosburg isn't great, he hasn't always been this bad, so one can assume that he's at least in a little bit of a slump from which he might rebound. Might.) That's making life awfully hard. In Pomeroy's efficiency ratings, Mizzou's actually rising offensively (currently 145th) and falling defensively (171st).

  • Building a quality team is like bailing sand with your hands. There is no shovel, and for every solid amount you gather, a bunch slips right through your fingers. It isn't easy, in other words, and as Kim Anderson and his staff begin to figure things out in one area of the game, they lose their grip on another.

  • All that said ... those rebounding numbers ... yuck. Elon is 271st in Effective Height, and Mizzou is 50th. And Elon outrebounded Mizzou by 4.4 in terms of expected boards. You just can't have that. D'Angelo Allen grabbed four offensive boards, Johnathan Williams III and Rosburg combined for 11 defensive boards, and Keith Shamburger and Wes Clark combined for seven, so it's not like there was a single player who had a bad night. Elon just outhustled Mizzou, and that can't happen.

  • The ball-handling slipped away from Missouri, too. Basically, from the moment I said I thought this could be a high-quality BCI team, Missouri has ... ceased being a high-quality BCI team. Wes Clark's half-disappearance has had a lot to do with that. Remember those first three games, when he looked like a potential all-conference performer? Me neither.

  • In the end, 3-point shooting and free throws bailed this team out. Again, basically the opposite of what I assumed would win games a month ago. Tell me again why I write these posts?

  • Oh yeah, and ... 51 fouls and 54 free throws. On an early-Thursday game in December in front of four thousand people. It benefited Mizzou in this case (aside from Namon Wright's foul trouble), but ... I can't wait to actually enjoy watching college basketball again. Any ... day ... now...

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player
AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Keith Shamburger 21.2 0.59 36 Min, 16 Pts (3-6 FG, 1-3 3PT, 9-9 FT), 4 Reb, 5 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 Blk, 3 TO, 3 PF
Johnathan Williams III 17.2 0.50 34 Min, 16 Pts (3-10 FG, 1-3 3PT, 9-11 FT), 8 Reb (2 Off), 3 Ast, 1 Stl, 3 TO, 1 PF
D'Angelo Allen 16.2 0.77 21 Min, 12 Pts (5-7 FG, 2-2 FT), 7 Reb (4 Off), 3 PF
Montaque Gill-Caesar 6.6 0.23 28 Min, 10 Pts (2-6 FG, 2-2 3PT, 4-4 FT), 2 Reb, 1 Blk, 2 TO, 3 PF
Ryan Rosburg 4.6 0.24 19 Min, 2 Pts (1-1 FG, 0-2 FT), 7 Reb (2 Off), 1 Blk, 3 PF
Tramaine Isabell 4.5 0.34 13 Min, 5 Pts (2-6 FG, 1-3 3PT, 0-1 FT), 2 Stl
Namon Wright 2.9 0.21 14 Min, 6 Pts (2-3 FG, 2-2 3PT), 1 TO, 4 PF
Deuce Bello 2.5 0.18 14 Min, 5 Pts (2-3 FG, 1-2 3PT, 0-1 FT), 2 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 2 TO, 3 PF
Wes Clark 0.7 0.04 18 Min, 6 Pts (3-9 FG, 0-3 3PT), 3 Reb, 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 TO, 5 PF
Keanau Post 0.0 0.00 3 Min
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
Poss.
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Keith Shamburger 19% 49% 3.9 64% 13% 17% 6%
Johnathan Williams III 28% 36% 3.6 44% 25% 24% 7%
D'Angelo Allen 20% 65% 1.3 0% 80% 20% 0%
Montaque Gill-Caesar 18% 33% 1.2 0% 52% 30% 17%
Ryan Rosburg 5% 51% 0.4 0% 37% 63% 0%
Tramaine Isabell 26% 28% 1.6 0% 87% 13% 0%
Namon Wright 15% 46% 0.9 0% 75% 0% 25%
Deuce Bello 20% 38% 2.5 50% 26% 7% 17%
Wes Clark 29% 30% 2.7 37% 57% 0% 6%
  • Your team is falling apart, and your opponent looks like it's about to steal a huge win, and you shoot 22-for-24 from the free throw line. Well done, Shamburger, J3, and Teki.

  • Mizzou might have been outhustled, but you can't blame D'Angelo Allen for that.

  • I really hope we find out that Keanau Post has a bug, and that's why he asked out of the game.

  • I was set to complain about the whole "coaches taking players who aren't foul-prone out of the game with two fouls in the first half" thing in regard to Namon Wright. He isn't racking up the whistles overall, so it may have been worth it to keep him in the game since he had two sweet early 3-pointers. But then he ended up with four fouls in 14 minutes, so I don't figure it mattered whether he stayed in or not. He was destined not to play much in this game.

Summary

We've got a quick turnaround on the way. Xavier visits tomorrow; Pomeroy says Mizzou has about a 32 percent chance of beating the No. 35 Musketeers. Yesterday, we saw exactly how Mizzou will win if it wins and exactly how Mizzou will lose if it loses. Xavier hits the offensive glass hard and doesn't foul much, but the Musketeers do allow you to shoot some 3s. Hopefully they go in.

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AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.