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Study Hall: Missouri 65, SEMO 61

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Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Your Trifecta: J3, Teki, Shamburger.
Your full-season Trifecta standings: Teki 10 points, Clark nine, Shamburger eight, J3 six, Wright four, Rosburg two, Allen 1, Isabell 1, Post 1.

Sam has already said most of what needs to be said, but I'll chip in a few notes.

Missouri 65, SEMO 61

Mizzou
SEMO
Pace (No. of Possessions) 57.6
Points Per Possession (PPP) 1.13 1.06
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.48 1.15
2-PT FG% 48.3% 54.3%
3-PT FG% 53.3% 33.3%
FT% 56.5% 35.7%
True Shooting % 60.1% 51.6%
Mizzou SEMO
Assists 10 10
Steals 4 7
Turnovers 12 9
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.17 1.89
Mizzou SEMO
Expected Offensive Rebounds 9.6 11.4
Offensive Rebounds 8 12
Difference -1.6 +0.6
  • It's reassuring that Mizzou can indeed get hot from 3-point range at times, and the Tigers thankfully did last night. But I find my eyes going to three specific places each time I put one of these tables together: BCI, rebound differential, and 2-point shooting. The first two are directly tied to effort and backcourt competence; the third is basically about easy buckets. They are far more in your control, I think, than 3-point shooting. And all of those three categories went in SEMO's favor yesterday. Without a good 3-point streak, and without awful free throw shooting from SEMO, Mizzou doesn't win.

  • Hey, hey! 'Only' 40 fouls and 37 free throw attempts! Huzzah! Second-lowest totals of the season, I believe!

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player
AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Johnathan Williams III 20.4 0.62 33 Min, 18 Pts (5-9 FG, 0-2 3PT, 8-14 FT), 11 Reb (4 Off), 1 Ast, 1 Blk, 3 TO, 2 PF
Montaque Gill-Caesar 16.6 0.53 31 Min, 15 Pts (5-9 FG, 2-3 3PT, 3-3 FT), 2 Reb, 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO, 2 PF
Keith Shamburger 10.4 0.27 39 Min, 11 Pts (4-5 FG, 3-4 3PT), 2 Reb (1 Off), 3 Ast, 4 TO, 3 PF
Tramaine Isabell 7.8 0.31 25 Min, 8 Pts (2-6 FG, 2-3 3PT, 2-2 FT), 2 Reb, 3 Ast, 2 TO
Ryan Rosburg 4.7 0.22 22 Min, 4 Pts (2-5 FG), 3 Reb (1 Off), 2 Ast, 2 PF
D'Angelo Allen 4.3 0.27 16 Min, 3 Pts (1-2 FG, 1-1 3PT, 0-2 FT), 5 Reb, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF
Namon Wright 0.7 0.05 14 Min, 4 Pts (2-5 FG, 0-2 3PT), 2 PF
Deuce Bello -1.2 -0.09 13 Min, 2 Pts (1-2 FG, 0-2 FT), 1 Reb, 1 Blk, 5 PF
Keanau Post -1.8 -0.25 7 Min, 0 Pts (0-1 FG), 1 Reb, 2 PF
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
Poss.
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Johnathan Williams III 33% 41% 3.1 20% 30% 41% 10%
Montaque Gill-Caesar 24% 46% 2.2 30% 46% 13% 10%
Keith Shamburger 14% 48% 2.4 66% 19% 0% 15%
Tramaine Isabell 21% 36% 3.8 64% 22% 6% 7%
Ryan Rosburg 14% 45% 2.6 70% 30% 0% 0%
D'Angelo Allen 15% 23% 1.0 0% 42% 37% 21%
Namon Wright 22% 36% 1.2 0% 100% 0% 0%
Deuce Bello 13% 32% 1.0 0% 53% 47% 0%
Keanau Post 9% 0% 0.5 0% 100% 0% 0%
  • And if J3 doesn't come up big, Mizzou loses regardless of SEMO's shooting. That was the J3 we've been wanting to see for a while. He and Gill-Caesar could be one hell of a combination soon.

  • Once again, though, the problem is still that Kim Anderson has absolutely no idea who is going to show up from game to game. Williams was excellent, and Teki scored 15 points on nine FG attempts. Shamburger certainly shot well, too. But Shamburger and Isabell had six turnovers, Bello fouled out in 13 minutes, Wright didn't have the outside touch this time (which will happen), and ... Keanau Post. Yuck.

Summary

Just out of curiosity:

Freshmen: 86 minutes (43%), 29.4 Adj. GS points (47%)
Sophomores: 33 minutes (17%), 20.4 Adj. GS points (33%)
Juniors: 35 minutes (18%), 3.5 Adj. GS points (6%)
Seniors: 46 minutes (23%), 8.6 Adj. GS points (14%)

So even without the suspended Wes Clark, freshmen/sophomores logged 60 percent of Mizzou's minutes and accounted for 80% of Mizzou's production while only two juniors/seniors even avoided negative Adj. GS totals. And we wonder why this team struggles for wide swaths of time (and will continue to do so)?

That Williams and Gill-Caesar stepped up and helped Mizzou avoid another disaster was a very positive thing moving forward. That Wes Clark got himself suspended again -- one certainly has to assume he's on his last strike now -- was as frustrating as anything else that happened on the court. (We'll see if he's available for the Oklahoma game on Friday.) One can see a potentially strong Big Three of sorts emerging with them, but Clark has to stay in uniform for that to come to fruition. Without him, Mizzou's a team that isn't good at many things.

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.