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Study Hall: Oklahoma 82, Missouri 63

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We can see pretty clearly what a good version of this Missouri team is going to look like, but without semi-decent play from the 5 spot, we're just not going to see Good Mizzou very often.

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Your Trifecta: J3, Wright, Teki.

Your full-season Trifecta: Teki 11 points, J3 nine, Clark nine, Shamburger eight, Wright six, Rosburg two, Allen one, Isabell one, Post one.

Youngsters: encouraging. Rosburg and Post: horror show. Kind of a broken record at this point, huh?

Oklahoma 82, Missouri 63

Mizzou
Oklahoma
Pace (No. of Possessions) 68.1
Points Per Possession (PPP) 0.93 1.20
Points Per Shot (PPS) 1.07 1.52
2-PT FG% 37.2% 61.8%
3-PT FG% 56.3% 50.0%
FT% 50.0% 62.5%
True Shooting % 50.4% 67.2%
Mizzou Oklahoma
Assists 11 16
Steals 7 10
Turnovers 16 14
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.13 1.86
Mizzou Oklahoma
Expected Offensive Rebounds 12.9 9.1
Offensive Rebounds 9 8
Difference -3.9 -1.1
  • Basically, for Missouri to be a solid team this year, I thought the Tigers needed to get about 10-13 points per game and 6-9 rebounds per game from Ryan Rosburg and Keanau Post. They're averaging 6 & 7 for the season, and against Arizona, Purdue, and Oklahoma, they're averaging 5 & 5. (Against just Purdue and Oklahoma, that's 2 & 2.) They're 15-for-38 from the field and 11-for-25 from the line. Post's shooting percentages aren't awful (last night notwithstanding), but he can't get shots. Rosburg can get shots and misses them.

    It's not like Mizzou would be a spectacular team with good bigs, but ... the Tigers are pretty awful with these bigs, at least against teams with athleticism on the interior. The rebounding could have been worse yesterday, but Rosburg and Post shot 0-for-5 with two turnovers, and Mizzou shot 37% from inside the 3-point range while OU shot 62%.

    Or to put it another way, Mizzou should never lose by 19 while shooting 9-for-16 from 3-point range. But a total void in the interior gave them a way.

    I feel bad anytime I go off on specific players or units. Rosburg and Post both seem like solid guys and good representatives of the school. And it's not their fault they have to play this much. Jakeenan Gant is still out (and isn't totally a "big" anyway), D'Angelo Allen is both undersized and raw and not ready to take over in the middle, and ... there just aren't any other options. But against teams with good length, Mizzou is playing 4-on-5 at the moment ... and most of those four are freshmen and sophomores.

  • And yeah, a lot of OU's quality 2-point shooting came because of post-steal transition. Mizzou had a decent (not great) 11 assists, but when your opponent has basically as many steals as you have assists, you're probably not going to win.

  • Oh, and 18-0 runs are bad. Except for when they're good.

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

Player
AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Johnathan Williams III 19.4 0.65 30 Min, 16 Pts (6-11 FG, 1-1 3PT, 3-4 FT), 8 Reb (4 Off), 2 Stl, 1 Blk, 5 TO, 3 PF
Namon Wright 16.7 0.79 21 Min, 12 Pts (5-8 FG, 2-3 3PT), 1 Ast, 2 Stl, 1 TO, 2 PF
Montaque Gill-Caesar 15.4 0.51 30 Min, 15 Pts (6-16 FG, 2-5 3PT, 1-2 FT), 6 Reb (1 Off), 2 Stl, 1 TO, 1 PF
Wes Clark 9.0 0.47 19 Min, 8 Pts (3-7 FG, 2-3 3PT), 3 Ast, 1 TO, 1 PF
Keith Shamburger 4.7 0.16 30 Min, 5 Pts (2-3 FG, 1-1 3PT), 2 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 TO, 2 PF
Tramaine Isabell 2.9 0.57 5 Min, 2 Pts (1-3 FG, 0-2 3PT), 1 Ast, 1 Stl, 1 PF
Deuce Bello 2.0 0.13 15 Min, 3 Pts (1-1 FG, 1-1 3PT), 2 Reb, 1 TO, 3 PF
Keanau Post -2.5 -0.50 5 Min, 0 Pts (0-2 FG)
D'Angelo Allen -2.9 -0.15 19 Min, 2 Pts (1-5 FG), 3 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 TO, 2 PF
Ryan Rosburg -5.2 -0.20 26 Min, 0 Pts (0-3 FG, 0-2 FT), 3 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 2 TO, 1 PF
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
Poss.
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Johnathan Williams III 30% 36% 2.1 0% 51% 26% 23%
Namon Wright 22% 54% 2.1 40% 54% 0% 7%
Montaque Gill-Caesar 30% 32% 1.9 0% 81% 14% 5%
Wes Clark 21% 43% 3.9 69% 27% 0% 4%
Keith Shamburger 10% 42% 2.3 75% 13% 0% 13%
Tramaine Isabell 31% 39% 5.1 66% 34% 0% 0%
Deuce Bello 7% 46% 0.4 0% 50% 0% 50%
Keanau Post 20% 0% 1.2 0% 100% 0% 0%
D'Angelo Allen 19% 21% 2.9 63% 27% 0% 11%
Ryan Rosburg 12% 6% 1.5 43% 22% 20% 15%
  • J3 had what I'll call an encouragingly sloppy game last night. He had nearly one-third of Mizzou's far-too-many turnovers, but he committed them while also trying to take over the game. He got to the line a couple of times, he shot 6-for-11 from the field, he grabbed four offensive rebounds, he had a couple of steals.

    Since coming back from Hawaii, Williams is averaging 17 PPG and 9.5 RPG and is shooting 11-for-18 from the free throw line. He's trying to assert himself, and it's working out more than it's not. When you're doing other good things, I'll look the other way when you have a bad turnovers game.

  • J3 and Teki are beginning to form a lovely combo. With J3 asserting himself, Gill-Caesar doesn't have just hurl himself into the lane as much -- after shooting 24 2-pointers in the first two games, he's averaging just 5.5 2-point attempts per game since, and he's getting to the line a solid amount. Oh, and since shooting 2-for-12 from 3-point range in those first two games, he's 9-for-19. There's a strong inside-outside combo forming there, especially if Namon Wright is going to play like he has the last four games.

  • It was encouraging that Wes Clark was even on the court -- he's been suspended just enough that one gets a bit of an "Is this it for him?" dread feeling when he's suspended again. But whatever he did wasn't that serious, I guess, and he only missed one game. His ceiling is obvious, and it's impossible not to be excited about what a foursome Clark-Wright-Teki-J3 could be in 2015-16, or even later in 2014-15, if everybody keeps their head on straight and sticks around. Of course, that's still 4-on-5, but it's a damn fine four.

Summary

Freshmen and sophomores: 62% of minutes against OU, 96% of production. This is just going to take time. There are no shortcuts, and in basketball, that's particularly frustrating, as there's a game every three days. We can see pretty clearly what a good version of this Missouri team is going to look like, but without semi-decent play from the 5 spot, we're just not going to see Good Mizzou very often.

---

AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Basketball-Reference.com: Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.