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NCAA College Basketball bracket projections: Rock-M-Tology, 2/10/14

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Got a late start on this with the Michael Sam news, but here we go. MIZZOU'S STILL IN! I didn't expect that!

Moving Up

St. John's (15-9) - On January 16, the Red Storm were 9-8 and 0-5 in Big East play. They've won six of seven since then and took down two current tourney teams -- Providence on the road, Creighton at home -- this past week to plant themselves firmly on the bubble.

Ohio State (19-5) - Ohio State started 15-0, then lost five of six, but wins at Wisconsin and Iowa and a home trouncing of Purdue have the Buckeyes headed back in the right direction.

Arkansas (15-8) - THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME. THEY WON A ROAD GAME.

Georgetown (14-9) - Another Big East team that has risen from the dead, the Hoyas have won three in a row (including a neutral courter over Michigan State) after losing six of seven. Like St. John's, they're not in yet, but they're a hell of a lot closer than they were a week ago.

Moving Down

Harvard (18-4) - How small is the margin for error for mid-majors? Harvard lost to Yale and tumbled dramatically in both my formula here and in Pomeroy's rankings. It was like Mizzou after the Georgia loss -- they were 38th before Yale, 51st after.

Green Bay (19-5 ) - How small is the margin for error for mid-majors? Harvard Green Bay lost to Yale Milwaukee and tumbled dramatically in both my formula here and in Pomeroy's rankings.

Providence (16-8) - Well, if two Big East teams are rising, someone's falling. Providence has lost three of four and fell by 10 at home to St. John's, and they're barely missing a First Four draw this time around.

Oklahoma State (16-7) - Four losses in a row + national headlines for the wrong reason = AIIIYYYEEEEEEEEEEEE.

Last Few In

Names in italics would be among the last in without their conference's automatic bid.

Stanford (15-7)
Minnesota (15-8)
Tennessee (14-8)
California (15-8)
Providence (16-8)
Florida State (14-9)
St. Joseph's (16-7)
Missouri (16-7)
Richmond (15-8)

First Few Out

Oregon (15-8)
Toledo (19-3)
LSU (15-7)
Dayton (16-8)
Georgetown (14-9)
BYU (16-9)
Louisiana Tech (19-5)
Maryland (13-10)
St. John's (15-9)
Baylor (12-9)
Clemson (15-7)
Ole Miss (16-7)

By Conference

6 - ACC, A10, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12
5 - AAC
4 - Big East, SEC
2 - Mountain West

The Bracket

FIRST FOUR (in Dayton)

Florida State (14-9) vs. Richmond (15-8)
St. Joseph's (16-7) vs. Missouri (16-7)

Weber State (11-7) vs. Southern (10-10)
Davidson (13-11) vs. UNC-Asheville (10-11)

WEST REGIONAL (in Anaheim)

1 Arizona (23-1) vs. 16 Weber State / Southern
8 George Washington (19-4) vs. 9 SMU (19-5)
in San Diego

5 Virginia (19-5) vs. 12 Harvard (17-4)
4 Kentucky (18-5) vs. 13 North Dakota State (15-6)
in San Diego

6 Oklahoma (18-6) vs. 11 Tennessee (14-8)
3 Michigan State (20-4) vs. 14 Manhattan (17-6)
in Milwaukee

7 Memphis (17-5) vs. 10 Xavier (15-7)
2 San Diego State (19-1) vs. 15 Santa Barbara (13-6)
in Spokane

SOUTH REGIONAL (in Memphis)

1 Kansas (18-5) vs. 16 Davidson / UNCA
8 VCU (19-5) vs. 9 Colorado (18-6)
in St. Louis

5 Iowa (17-6) vs. 12 St. Joe's / Mizzou
4 Cincinnati (22-3) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (18-2)
in San Antonio

6 Saint Louis (21-2) vs. 11 Providence (16-8)
3 Wisconsin vs. 14 Delaware (18-7)
in Milwaukee

7 Gonzaga (20-4) vs. 10 Stanford (15-7)
2 Wichita State (24-0) vs. 15 Boston U. (17-8)
in St. Louis

EAST REGIONAL (in New York City)

1 Syracuse (23-0) vs. 16 Bryant U. (15-9)
8 New Mexico (18-4) vs. 9 Oklahoma State (16-7)
in Buffalo

5 Massachusetts (19-4) vs. 12 Toledo (19-3)
4 Michigan (17-6) vs. 13 Belmont (18-8)
in Spokane

6 Texas (18-5) vs. 11 California (15-8)
3 Creighton (19-4) vs. 14 New Mexico State (17-8)
in San Antonio

MIDWEST REGIONAL (in Indianapolis)

1 Villanova (21-2) vs. 16 N.C. Central (15-5)
8 North Carolina (16-7) vs. 9 Kansas State (16-7)
in Buffalo

5 UCLA (18-5) vs. 12 Florida State / Richmond
4 Ohio State (19-5) vs. 13 Green Bay (16-5)
in Raleigh

6 Louisville (19-4) vs. 11 Minnesota (15-8)
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Mercer (16-6)
in Orlando

7 Pittsburgh (20-4) vs. 10 Arizona State (18-6)
2 Florida (21-2) vs. 15 Vermont (13-9)
in Orlando

My At-First-Glance Final Four

Arizona-Kansas-Duke-Florida

Second glance: Michigan State-Wichita State-Michigan-Villanova

Missouri's inevitable path to destiny (ahem)

St. Joseph's-Iowa-Cincinnati-Kansas-Wichita State-Arizona-Florida. NO PROBLEM.

(But hey, I was prepared to make an NIT-related Path to Destiny joke here this week and didn't have to. I'll keep that one in the holster, though.)