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WBB: Analyzing the 5-0 Start

For the third time in six years, the Mizzou women are off to a 5-0 start. We take a look inside the numbers to see how the Tigers have reached this point and preview today and tomorrow's games.

Sierra Michaelis has been a key contributor for the Tigers
Sierra Michaelis has been a key contributor for the Tigers
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Robin Pingeton's charges are off to a 5-0 start, and none of the games have been particularly close. The smallest margin of victory was 13 over Wake Forest, which is the best team they've played so far this year. Missouri is ranked 24 in the Sagarin ratings, while Wake Forest is at 84. As a side note, a look at the top of the ratings shows that #1 UConn is rated 10 points better than the #2 team. There is some serious disparity at the top in women's hoops.

Let's take a look at how Mizzou got off to this perfect start. They opened the season with a 71-55 victory at Missouri State. Sophie Cunningham led the team in scoring and adjusted game score in her first game as a Tiger:

Number Player Min REB ORB AST FGM FGA FTM FTA PF STL TO BLK PTS GAME SCORE Adj GS GS/M
3 Cunningham, S 25 10 5 5 7 11 7 8 4 3 4 1 23 24.3 32.0 1.28
22 Frericks 21 10 2 0 5 7 4 5 4 1 1 1 14 13.6 17.9 0.85
11 Cunningham, L 30 3 0 5 3 6 1 2 0 1 3 0 10 9.0 11.9 0.40
24 Michaelis 25 6 0 3 4 9 2 2 0 2 4 0 10 7.2 9.5 0.38
12 Hudyn 27 13 3 1 1 3 0 0 3 1 3 3 2 5.0 6.6 0.24
1 McDowell 11 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2.3 3.0 0.28
4 Porter, Bri 7 1 1 0 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 1 2 2.0 2.6 0.38
2 Stock, Morgan 9 1 1 0 1 6 1 2 1 1 0 0 3 0.1 0.1 0.01
10 Porter, Cierra 12 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.01
15 Shephard 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1.4 -1.8 -1.84
10 Stock, Maddie 17 2 0 1 1 5 0 0 3 1 2 0 2 -2.0 -2.6 -0.15
13 Robinson 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 -2.4 -3.2 -1.05
1 Doty 12 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 4 0 4 0 3 -3.7 -4.9 -0.41

Next up, the Tigers dominated Arkansas-Pine Bluff 85-34. The Porter sisters led the way as Mizzou held UAPB to the lowest score of any opponent in five years:

Number Player Min REB ORB AST FGM FGA FTM FTA PF STL TO BLK PTS GAME SCORE Adj GS GS/M
4 Porter, Bri 15 8 5 0 6 11 4 6 0 3 0 1 16 18.0 19.0 1.27
21 Porter, Cierra 22 6 1 3 4 6 4 5 1 0 1 2 12 13.3 14.0 0.64
3 Cunningham, S 20 6 1 3 5 9 0 0 0 3 2 0 11 12.0 12.7 0.63
22 Frericks 20 6 0 2 4 6 3 4 2 0 0 0 11 10.4 11.0 0.55
20 McDowell 15 3 3 1 4 7 2 2 0 0 1 0 10 8.5 9.0 0.60
24 Michaelis 16 2 1 2 3 6 0 0 0 2 2 0 7 6.4 6.7 0.42
23 Robinson 13 2 0 1 2 5 1 2 1 1 1 0 7 4.8 5.1 0.39
10 Stock, Maddie 13 4 1 1 1 5 0 0 1 3 2 0 3 2.8 3.0 0.23
1 Doty 16 4 0 2 1 1 0 0 4 1 1 0 2 2.7 2.8 0.18
15 Shephard 10 1 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2.3 2.4 0.24
11 Cunningham, L 17 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0.3 0.3 0.02
2 Stock, Morgan 15 2 1 0 1 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.01
12 Hudyn 8 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -0.8 -0.8 -0.11

Two days later, Wichita State came to visit, and the Shockers were handed a 57-37 defeat.  Sierra Michaelis led the way with a healthy 0.99 adjusted game score per minute:

Number Player Min REB ORB AST FGM FGA FTM FTA PF STL TO BLK PTS GAME SCORE Adj GS GS/M
24 Michaelis 19 4 1 2 4 7 2 2 1 2 1 0 13 13.3 18.7 0.99
22 Frericks 32 6 1 2 5 9 2 3 2 0 2 1 12 8.8 12.4 0.39
3 Cunningham, S 37 5 0 2 3 6 4 4 3 2 3 1 10 8.4 11.8 0.32
21 Porter, Cierra 17 4 1 0 3 5 5 6 0 0 4 2 11 7.3 10.3 0.60
2 Stock, Morgan 11 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 1 0 1 2 3.7 5.2 0.47
4 Porter, Bri 11 1 0 1 1 3 1 2 1 2 0 0 3 3.5 4.9 0.45
23 Robinson 10 1 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 3.0 4.2 0.42
12 Hudyn 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 1.6 2.3 0.23
10 Stock, Maddie 12 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 0.8 0.07
1 Doty 16 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 1 2 0 2 0.5 0.7 0.04
20 McDowell 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 -3.5 -4.9 -0.99
11 Cunningham, L 20 3 0 1 0 1 0 0 4 0 6 0 0 -6.7 -9.4 -0.47

This was followed by the game most casual followers of women's basketball team heard about. Sophie Cunningham exploded for 42 points against Wake Forest, breaking the almost 30 year old Mizzou record for points in a game in a 94-81 Tiger victory. Sophie's effort was not of the Clarence Gilbert high volume shooting variety, either. In a very well rounded effort, the McDonald's All-American averaged an astounding adjusted game score per minute of 1.52:

Number Player Min REB ORB AST FGM FGA FTM FTA PF STL TO BLK PTS GAME SCORE Adj GS GS/M
3 Cunningham, S 33 8 3 4 13 18 10 12 3 3 3 0 42 39.0 50.2 1.52
21 Porter, Cierra 22 3 0 5 3 5 8 10 3 0 0 1 14 14.8 19.1 0.87
24 Michaelis 24 5 0 0 7 12 0 0 4 0 2 1 18 11.0 14.2 0.59
22 Frericks 37 12 6 1 2 10 5 8 4 2 1 3 9 9.8 12.6 0.34
23 Robinson 12 0 0 2 1 3 3 4 1 0 0 0 6 4.9 6.3 0.53
10 Stock, Maddie 10 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0.6 0.8 0.08
20 McDowell 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.3 0.4 0.05
12 Hudyn 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.7 -0.9 -0.30
1 Doty 7 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1.1 -1.4 -0.20
4 Porter, Bri 11 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -2.8 -3.6 -0.33
11 Cunningham, L 33 1 2 6 0 5 3 4 3 0 6 0 3 -2.8 -3.6 -0.11

In my season preview, one of the keys to watch for was whether Missouri was able to play inside out this year:

Does Mizzou play more inside out? Pingeton has stated this is her preferred approach, but her teams, led by the graduated Morgan Eye, have been outside gunners first and foremost. With a healthy roster of post players to supplement 2ndteam All SEC Jordan Frericks on the inside, we may see a different dynamic this year.

Wake Forest's big and talented inside players kept that from happening. Jordan Frericks struggled mightily trying to score inside (although she did rebound well despite her size disadvantage). What opened up the Mizzou offense was outside shooting, specifically that of Sierra Michaelis. Excellent ball movement and skip passes got Michaelis several good looks which she drilled. With the Deacons forced to pay more attention to Michaelis, Sophie Cunningham got some space and took advantage of it. Mizzou's first 30 points were scored by Michaelis or Cunningham.

On Tuesday, the Tigers trounced SIU-Edwardsville, 75-46. All the reserves got lots of playing time against an overmatched opponent. There was some concern voiced by the coaches and the team about a sloppy second half, and Mizzou did get outscored 31-25 in the second half. That is pretty nitpicky considering the Tigers were up 24-7 after the 1st quarter and 50-17 at half. Kayla McDowell, Sophie Cunningham, and Jordan Frericks led a total team effort in this one:

20 McDowell 22 7 3 0 4 8 2 2 0 1 2 2 11 10.7 13.1 0.60
3 Cunningham, S 17 2 0 1 3 5 2 2 1 0 0 0 10 8.6 10.5 0.62
22 Frericks 15 9 6 0 3 4 3 5 1 1 4 0 9 8.3 10.2 0.68
4 Porter, Bri 21 3 1 0 0 4 8 8 0 1 1 1 8 7.2 8.8 0.42
2 Stock, Morgan 17 2 2 0 5 11 0 0 2 1 3 0 14 6.9 8.4 0.50
23 Robinson 11 0 0 2 2 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 6 4.7 5.8 0.52
1 Doty 21 3 0 2 0 1 1 2 2 5 2 0 1 4.4 5.4 0.26
15 Shephard 14 2 0 2 1 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 3.6 4.4 0.31
11 Cunningham, L 13 4 0 4 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 2.9 3.5 0.27
21 Porter, Cierra 7 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 4 2.7 3.3 0.47
24 Michaelis 13 0 0 1 2 6 0 0 1 1 2 0 6 1.9 2.3 0.18
12 Hudyn 14 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 5 1 0 2 0 1.0 1.2 0.09
10 Stock, Maddie 15 1 0 2 1 7 0 0 2 1 1 0 2 -1.6 -2.0 -0.13

This weekend the Tigers are in Marago, CA for the Hilton Concord Thanksgiving Classic. Today's opponent, Northeastern, probably won't provide too much of a challenge, as they are rated in the same neighborhood as Wichita State and SIU-E by Sagarin. Today's game is at 2:00 p.m. and can be watched online here. That conflicts with the football game, so I imagine viewership will be low, but I wanted to give you the option if you wanted to watch a game Mizzou was likely to win.

Tomorrow's game is a different story. The Gaels of St. Mary's will probably provide the stiffest challenge of the non-conference slate. They are rated 65th by Sagarin and are led by Sydney Raggio, who averages 17.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg. The Gaels are balanced, featuring four other players in double figures and another at 9.0 ppg. Saint Mary's has won the last three of these tourneys, defeating Iowa State and Alabama along the way. The game will start Saturday at 4:00, or 30 minutes after the completion of the first game, and can be watched here.

We will check back in next week with the results of this weekend's games and some season stats analysis as Mizzou crosses the midway point in the non-conference season.