Mizzou Wrestling: RPI & Allotments

Beef

So BST, the NCAA made the announcement late yesterday afternoon with their final RPI rankings and conference allocations for the NCAA Tournament, which can be found here (http://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/article/2015-02-26/ncaa-announces-qualifier-allocations-2015-di-wrestling) For the uninitiated, the RPI rankings are one of the factors which will help determine seeding at the NCAA’s in a few weeks, and the allocations are what will determine (most) of who qualifies. Because wrestling conferences are a bit different in their makeup (from the P-5 conference model) and because some (Big 10) are much stronger than others (Southern Conference), the NCAA awards positions per weight class to each conference before their tournaments. So when you see "12" in the space for the Big 10 at 133, that means the NCAA’s are guaranteed to take 12 (of the 14!!) wrestlers from the conference. So…at the Big 10’s…if you come in 11th, you will go to the NCAA’s (it also presumably means the Big 10’s will have to wrestle all the way down to that spot). There are also wild card spots, but we will get into that as we go.

As you can see from the allocations grid, the MAC is just behind the EIWA as the next strongest conference behind the Big 10. Give me your first level of reaction when seeing the weight class allocations for the MAC

BST

Hmmmm, these are interesting indeed. At first glance I'd say I'm a bit surprised that the MAC got 6 at 197 and only 2 at 184. As Shaffe has already pointed out on the twitters, Synon will almost certainly have to win the MACs to make it at 133. England caught a break with the MAC getting 4 auto qualifiers at 165.

What was your first reaction to the allocations? How many do you think we'll take to the NCAAs based on these alone?

Beef

Shaffe was good enough to prepare a little spreadsheet of MAC wrestlers and their associated RPI/Coaches rankings.

Final MAC poll ranking in parenthesis, Mizzou wrestlers bolded
	RPI	Coaches			RPI	Coaches
125	2 allocations			165	4 allocations
Waters(1)	1	1		Warner(1)	8	14
Peters(2)	5	5		Moore(2)	9	12
Jeske(3)	31	26		Hightower(3)	23	23
133	1 allocation			Wohlfert	27	UNR
McGuire(4)	23	20		England(4)	28	24
Synon(1)	26	30		174	3 allocations
Kesselrig(3)	28	33		Eblen(2)	????	5
141	3 allocations			Walters(1)	15	9
Mayes(2)	5	5		Marsh(4)	20	29
Mecate(3)	15	12		Ellingwood(3)	22	32
Horan(1)	16	10		Engelkes	27	UNR
Small(4)	23	30		Maas	29	UNR
149	5 allocations			184	2 allocations
Houdashelt(1)	2	2		Dechow(2)	5	3
Richardson(2)	8	13		Miklus(1)	16	11
Claxton(4)	10	8		197	6 allocations
Heffernan(3)	16	17		Cox(1)	6	1
Barber	21	29		Wellington(2)	13	17
157	3 allocations			Abro(4)	23	20
LaVallee(2)	8	10		Beazley	24	24
Jensen(3)	21	25		Scott(3)	26	26
Zeerip(4)	27	31		Baxter	28	25
Warner	30	UNR		Minto	UNR	33
Miller(1)	UNR	5		285	4 allocations
LeCount	UNR	33		Cabell(1)	10	9
				Mellon(2)	11	12
				Henderson(3)	22	29
				Lytle(4)	25	28

Looking at that, getting six at 197 is not a huge shock, simply because the conference has a bunch of guys who have existed just off the Intermat top 20 "radar". Looking at the rankings, I think only 1 wrestler at 133 is a LITTLE unfair, but that is really what I thought the conference might get (since Synon is #1 ranked in the conference). What Synon has going for him is that the NCAA only allotted 25 spots in the class, meaning there will be 8 wild card selections. If he comes in 2nd (depending on who wins it), he might have a decent change to get back in. Yes, England being in a class that got 4 slots is helpful.

Honestly, this shapes up pretty well for us to get 10. I think we need to keep an eye on 157 because Miller from Kent State has been hurt, so he is somewhat off the RPI radar. I don’t know a ton of how the RPI is created, but seeing a wrestler like him or Delgado from Illinois (who is only 3-1 or something on the season) is not surprising. I thought Eblen would have had enough matches at this point at the weight, but I guess not (he must be close since England does, though he had that one extra tournament a few weeks ago which maybe pushed him past the threshold).

We will leave the MAC predicting until next week, but after looking at the spreadsheet, what do you think now?

BST

Dangit Beef, I love predicting!

The spread sheet shows more than anything some darn good match ups and re-matches we will hopefully get to see at the MACs. Miklus vs Dechow, Houdashelt vs Richardson, Eblen vs Walters, Mellon vs Cabell.

I agree that we are in good shape to get 10 in. That is of course the goal. We have a legit shot of winning what, 7 of the 10 weight classes at the MACs? Thats awesome.

Beef

Seven or eight really. Mellon and Cabell at HWY and LaVallee vs. Miller (potentially) at 157 would not have us favored. Mayes and Horan (maybe) could be tough, if only because Mayes has not been able to get past Horan. I agree about Miklus and Dechow, especially because Willie’s already beaten him. But we can talk about this next week.

For now, anything left in your NCAA/RPI reaction?

BST

The Big10 is freaking loaded. Like seriously loaded. I think the RPI over reacts to that a bit, but what can ya do? The Big12 got left off the list. Ha.

Beef

Oh wow…I had not even noticed that. That explains why they were not closer to 28-29 in each class for allocations. Oh West Virginia…only had one wrestler who placed 2nd in a class last year. Everyone else was 3rd or 4th. I guess I will be real curious to see how many they get in based on all wild cards.

So in lieu of that, looking at 133, Big XII has three people in the RPI (though one is 33). However, Cody Brewer from OU is sitting at #3 in the Coach’s, meaning the Big XII is looking at three (at a minimum) and maybe four if Stainbrook from WVU goes crazy. But assuming 3, that moves the number to 28, leaving 5 more wildcards.

BST

Woof, Synon needs to win the MAC. His RPI isn't going to improve any next weekend even with a 2nd place finish. He needs to win.

Beef

So looking at our performance at 133, Matt Manley defeated Hayes of ODU (4-1) and lost to McGuire (RPI 23/Coaches 20) 2-0. Synon has losses to Wolfensperger of UNI and Alber of UNI in tourneys. But he has wins over in conference over Keserling of CMU (RPI 28/Coaches 23) by a 3-2 score, a major over Carlson of NIU, a 6-0 win over Gaul of UNI (the THIRD wrestler from Northern Iowa he has wrestled) and a 2-1 OT win over Pizzuto from EMU.

He faced a gauntlet last week at the duals and lost three in a row. We will talk more next week.