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NCAA Bracketology, Selection Sunday edition: Rock-M-Tology

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So I'll try to have a complete bracket ready to post for this afternoon's NCAA Bracket Party thread, but for now we'll just cover the basics: who's in and out, and what are the stakes for today's remaining games?

Today's Stakes

CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY
Sat, Mar 14, 2015
Atlantic Ten Conference Championship
noon CT
(5) VCU (25-9, 12-6 A10) vs (2) Dayton (25-7, 13-5 A10) Stakes: VCU could escape 8-9 line with a win. Dayton's probably stuck there regardless.
Southeastern Conference Championship
noon CT
(2) Arkansas (26-7, 13-5 SEC) vs (1) Kentucky (33-0, 18-0 SEC) Stakes: maybe arkansas threatens to get a 4-seed with a win?
Sun Belt Conference Championship
noon CT
(2) Georgia Southern (22-8, 14-6 SBC) vs (1) Georgia State (23-9, 15-5 SBC) Stakes: winner's in. Georgia state's probably a 14 with a win, georgia southern's probably a 15.
American Athletic Conference Championship
2:15 p.m. CT
(6) Connecticut (20-13, 10-8 AAC) vs (1) SMU (26-6, 15-3 AAC) stakes: UConn steals a bid with a win (and if the Huskies get in, let's just assume they win the whole damn thing. this is the most important game of the day.
Big Ten Conference Championship
2:30pm CT
(3) Michigan State (23-10, 12-6 Big 10) vs (1) Wisconsin (30-3, 16-2 Big 10) stakes: Wisconsin potentially locks up a 1-seed with a win. But since this is so late in the day, their status will probably be locked in regardless*.

* It's a joke that games are allowed to start this late in the day. We're asking the committee to be perfect, and they basically have to make generalizations about the late-Sunday games. Dumb.

Last Few In

So the way I see it right now, if UConn loses, two of these four teams get in: Indiana, Old Dominion, Ole Miss, Temple. My guess is that's Ole Miss and Temple right now. If UConn wins, only one gets in.

And it's taken me until now to say this, but ... wow, does this bubble stink. Every year I say that "this year's bubble is the worst ever," and the fact that I wasn't saying it in February probably means it doesn't, but ... it does.

Oklahoma State (17-13)
Texas (20-13)
Georgia (21-11)
Purdue (21-12)
Davidson (23-7)
BYU (23-9)
LSU (22-10)
Boise State (23-8)
Colorado State (26-6)
Ole Miss (20-12)
Temple (23-10)

First Few Out

Indiana (20-13)
Old Dominion (24-7)
UCLA (20-13)
Miami (21-12)
Tulsa (22-9)
Murray State (25-5)
Texas A&M (20-11)

The Likely Seeds

1 - Kentucky, Villanova, Wisconsin, Duke
2 - Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas
3 - Iowa State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Baylor
4 - Oklahoma, Northern Iowa, North Carolina, Louisville
5 - West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgetown, SMU
6 - Wichita State, Utah, Butler, Michigan State
7 - Providence, Oregon, VCU, San Diego State
8 - Iowa, Xavier, Cincinnati, Dayton
9 - Ohio State, St. John's, NC State, Oklahoma State
10 - Texas, Georgia, Purdue, Davidson
11 - BYU, LSU, Play-In Teams (Boise State, Colorado State, Ole Miss, Temple)