The commitment of Royce Newman last night continued Missouri's torrid commitment stretch, one that began last Friday with four-star Columbia end Tre Williams and has gone on to include Christian Holmes, Bryce Banks, Tucker McCann, Trey Baldwin, Mackenzie Nworah, and Newman. In eight days, Mizzou's class went from almost empty to more than half-full
It's fair at this point, then, to ask what's left for this class.
Here's a look at my estimates for what this class will include. I've done this before, but the columns below are as follows:
a) My own personal estimate (I look at the sophomores, juniors, seniors, walk-ons, and redshirting freshman at each position to look at need, then multiply by the number of scholarships it looks like the class will have.
b) An estimate of Mizzou's needs based simply on the number of offers the Tigers have sent out at each position.
c) The average of the two.
I'm aiming high here, assuming there will be 20 non-kicker commits in this class. It's just as likely that that number ends up in the 16-19 range. Just depends on attrition. But for now, we'll make that number big so we can get a better idea of what might be left.
|Position||Bill's Estimate||Proportion of Offers||Average||Known Commits|
We've talked about this in previous posts, but this class should be pretty heavy on offensive linemen, defensive linemen, and linebackers. But while I'm estimating about nine combined signees at those positions, they have only four commitments, so there's still work to be done there. That's especially the case at defensive tackle, where Mizzou currently has no commits.
Mizzou is quite possibly done at quarterback and running back (unless the staff just finds one they really, really like later in the recruiting process) and will probably still snare a tight end at one more defensive back at some point.
What funny about Missouri recruiting is ... there's almost no point in speculating about the names that might fill these positions. Of the last seven commitments, only three (Williams, Nworah, McCann) were guys who were really on the radar screen (ours, not Mizzou's) before the last week or two. For players like Holmes, Newman, and Banks, it was basically "get an offer once the staff gets a good look at you in person, then commit almost instantly).
Perhaps the two most noteworthy names are the in-staters -- CBC running back Tre Bryant is still figuring out his decision (and we assume that the staff is still pursuing him), and four-star Rockhurst athlete A.J. Taylor is scheduled to make his announcement in about a month and a half. Besides that, we've reached full ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ stage with recruiting.
This class is taking shape a lot like the 2014 class; that one was bigger, and Mizzou had more early commits (10 from March through May), but between mid-June and the start of the season, Mizzou landed Logan Cheadle, Kenya Dennis, Roderick Winters, Lawrence Lee, Sam Bailey, Marvin Zanders, Trevon Walters, and Tavon Ross. Most of them were less-heralded out-of-staters, but quite a few half already found their way onto the two-deep (or had before dismissal/injury). When Mizzou wants you this early, the odds are pretty decent that you're pretty good.
So Mizzou has between five and 10 remaining spots on this class, and besides hopefully Bryant and Taylor, I would expect a good chunk of them to go to linemen and linebackers.
And in another week, when Mizzou's gotten another five commits or whatever, we'll reassess again then.