Arizona and Bragging Rights highlight the end of Mizzou's non-conference hoops slate

Last Friday, Mizzou announced their basketball Non-Conference schedule and then Tuesday we talked about the first segment of that schedule, yesterday we talked about the middle part, so today we'll talk about the rest. This part of the schedule might start ugly, but stick with it and I'm pretty sure there will be some wins towards the end. So here, armed with just our tempered expectations, HHKB Chris, jaeger, Jack Peglow and myself will add our thoughts to the last 5 games of the conference schedule.

For comparison's sake here (again) is your returning Tigers:

Missouri Tigers

Last Season: 9-23
KenPom: 214

We all know the story at this point, but here's the outlook.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Johnathan Williams III	29.4	11.9	90.4
Montaque Gill-Caesar	24.0	9.1	83.8
Keith Shamburger	34.1	8.8	109.9
Keanau Post	14.1	4.1	103.8
Deuce Bello	10.9	1.8	66.0
	56%	59.5%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Wes Clark	6-0	Jr	31.0	10.1	93.4
Namon Wright	6-5	So	20.2	6.8	89.3
Jakeenan Gant	6-8	So	14.1	4.9	103.4
Tramaine Isabell	6-0	So	15.1	4.1	81.0
D'Angelo Allen	6-7	So	17.0	3.3	101.7
Ryan Rosburg	6-10	Sr	16.7	3.3	93.2

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First Rock M Talks...

the Arizona Wildcats

Last Season: 34-4
KenPom: 2

There's no confirmation that the Tigers had a "Wildcat requirement" written into their non-conference scheduling rulebook, but either way the Arizona bunch should prove the Tigers toughest task to date.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
T.J. McConnell	30.5	10.4	118.3
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	28.7	11.2	113.8
Stanley Johnson	28.4	13.8	108.0
Brandon Ashley	27.8	12.2	112.3
	57.7%	61.8%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Kaleb Tarczewski	7-0	Sr	26.0	9.3	112.4
Gabe York	6-3	Sr	23.1	9.2	113.8
Elliott Pitts	6-5	Jr	14.9	3.5	116.5

From the experts...

Sam Snelling: Ok then.

If you like Mizzou's chances in this matchup, well, I'm not sure what to tell you. Arizona lost a lot from a great team a year ago, but Sean Miller has that thing rolling in Tucson and the Wildcats will be great again this year. To accompany some serious experience returning, Miller is adding three 5-star perimeter players and a 4-star big man. I can't see how Mizzou wins this game, in any way shape or form. In fact, I think there's an outside shot in most of the games on their schedule, except this one... I see this going about the same way that the Oklahoma game did a year ago. Mizzou comes out hot early, we start to believe for a moment or two, then reality sets in and Arizona wins by 18-20.

jaeger: This is an odd one. Obviously Arizona is a big time program and a great team, but I can't help but remember how the game against them went last year, when Mizzou kept it close for a while before getting whomped. I suspect it'll go much the same way, although maybe we keep it close a little longer and get whomped a little less.

HHKB Chris: Well take the training wheels back off because we're headed to the big time. Mizzou travels to Arizona for game one of a home and home series that concludes next year at a surely packed Mizzou Arena. Last year we had a bit of an amuse bouche to this game when both teams faced off in Maui, so we get one of the best teams in the country three years in a row. Last year Mizzou took quite the beating, a beating so bad that at half time Kim Anderson removed his mic and was no longer "Mic'ed up on ESPN." Let's face it, Mizzou's probably gonna take a beating but hopefully the team gets something out of it. Going on the road in a tough arena against a great team will do nothing if not build character for the rest of the season and will make trips to the Hump and Alabama seem like a walk in the park...or it could crush the young Tigers. Really at this point I just want to see some consistency of play and some attitude, even in a loss.

My farcical prediction: Arizona 80 - Mizzou 56 and may we never speak of this again.

First Rock M Talks...

the North Carolina State Wolfpack

Last Season: 22-14
KenPom: 31

The Wolfpack lost a lot in the offseason, and won't be very deep, but the returning talent is solid and there are a couple newcomers that could help right away. This won't be an easy matchup for the Tigers.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Trevor Lacy	35.9	15.7	113.9
Ralston Turner	31.6	12.8	114.4
Kyle Washington	17.8	6.8	101.6
	42.6%	60.1%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Anthony Barber	6-2	Jr	31.7	12.1	107.8
Beejay Anya	6-9	Jr	19.4	4.5	103.3
Lennard Freeman	6-8	Jr	19.5	3.6	102.7
Abdul-Malik Abu	6-8	So	19.1	6.4	102.0
Caleb Martin	6-7	So	16.6	4.8	102.7
Cody Martin	6-7	So	11.4	3.4	96.6

From the experts...

Sam Snelling: The fact that this is a home game, and that NC State is one of those teams that never seems to be playing their best unless they're at home against Duke or North Carolina. At this stage, it's also possible that NC State, a certain top 40 team to start the season, could come into Columbia and overlook the Tigers, who will likely be looking to recover from a bit of a butt-kicking in Tucson just a few days before. Of this three game stretch(AZ, NCSt, ILL), I like the Tigers chances to win this game the most. But it's still hard to see them turn the tides on a top 40ish team when they were below 200 a year ago. I'll take NC State in a close one, say by 4 points.

jaeger: NC State is good, but inconsistent. If they're on, it could get ugly, but if our front court has started to gel and NC State comes out flat, Mizzou has a real shot at this one.

HHKB Chris: Well look who it is, Mark Gottfried and the NC State Wolfpack. Gottfried is best known for pleading with Joe Lunardi to put NC State in the NCAA Tournament because apparently he thought that Joe Lunardi was the decider and not just a prognosticator with hair issues. Anyway, NC State comes to Mizzou Arena returning a home and home that began with Mizzou going to Raleigh in 2013 and beating the Wolfpack, good job Frank Haith! Since that time these two teams have headed in two different directions, NC State up, Mizzou down. NC State returns a lot of good players from a team that went to the NCAA tournament and beat the wildly inconsistent LSU and then made a piccolo player cry her eyes out when they knocked off #1 seed Villanova, destroying everyone's bracket in the process. They do lose a lot of scoring but bring a very highly touted recruiting class and look to be continuing to progress in year five of the Gottfried era. The Wolfpack bring a bigger team overall than Mizzou has faced to this point in this season so we could be seeing a slowed down methodical game, with just a touch of punch. How has Mizzou gelled and does the rotation seem strong enough at this point to compete game in and game out is what I'm looking for at this point in the season.

My epoustouflant prediction: NC State 62 - Mizzou 59 in a more than half full Mizzou Arena that gives just a taste to the team of what a rocking home crowd can do for you.

First Rock M Talks...

the Illinois Fighting Illini

Last Season: 19-14
KenPom: 69

The Illini are still rebuilding a bit under John Groce, but they're a step or two ahead of the Tigers as the Illini have talent and experience on their 2015-16 squad.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Rayvonte Rice	30.0	16.5	120.8
Ahmad Starks	24.1	7.7	97.1
Nnanna Egwu	29.8	6.5	105.1
Aaron Cosby	25.3	7.8	90.0
	54.6%	55.8%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Malcolm Hill	6-6	Jr	30.6	14.4	112.4
Kendrick Nunn	6-3	Jr	30.2	11.1	103.5
Jaylon Tate	6-7	Jr	20.4	3.6	98.5
Leron Black	6-7	So	14.8	5.0	97.8

From the experts...

Sam Snelling: Last year the Tigers absolutely got up to play the Illini in the Bragging Rights Matchup, and I'd expect the same thing to happen this year. However the Illini appear to be one year ahead of Mizzou on the rebuild, and have a talented Junior class that I'll expect them to lead them to victory in this game. On top of bringing back Hill, Nunn and Tate, Leron Black should be improved. The Illini also landed two 5th year transfers in Mike Thorne, Jr and Khalid Lewis, the latter who should help overcome the loss of Tracy Abrams. Abrams spent last year sitting out with an ACL tear and this year he'll be out with a torn Achilles. If the Illini can resolve their PG questions, they'll be a very very tough team. The emotions will be high, and the Tigers will play hard and play well, but they'll fall short, hopefully in less dramatic and heartbreaking fashion than they did a year ago.

jaeger: Leron Black can go fall in a well.

Illinois is probably a year ahead of Mizzou in the rebuilding process, but it's hard to say. Whether or not Mizzou has a good shot depends on whether we have a guy that can either slow down Malcolm Hill or keep pace with him. Either way, I think the guy in question will have to be Namon Wright.

And I swear to god, Leron. If you injure another one of our players...

HHKB Chris: Come on feel the Illinoise, part 2! Mizzou and Illinois match up again in St. Louis in the Busch Braggin Rights game (note I'm not sure they're still the sponsor but I don't care and I'm not checking), and Mizzou has got revenge on the mind. Last year Rayvonte Rice (JERK) hit a dagger of a three pointer at the buzzer that had no business going in. Also Leron Black (HUGE JERK) essentially for all intents and purposes ended former Tiger Teki Gill-Caeser's season by body slamming him to the floor. Rice is gone (GOOD) and Black is back (BOOO) and it's payback time. Illinois lost a lot of production from last year's squad that lost to Bama in the first round of the NIT and remind me a lot of what Mizzou should hope to be this year, while the Illini have taken the next step this season, that we hope from Mizzou next year. Complicated no? Anyway, on paper the matchups appear favorable to the style of play that we think will work best for Mizzou's squad, however the Illini have Malcolm Hill and we do not. Hill looks to be on the cusp of a breakout year and should be the focus of our defense, looking in your direction Namon! If Namon can keep Hill in check, there's a chance for Mizzou to steal this game. Alas, I think the Illini have just too much for this year's Mizzou squad.

My deliriously early prediction: Illinois 65 - Mizzou 60 in a good game that Mizzou loses at the line. The Scottrade Center is full and Monte Hardge comes out of nowhere to serve justice to Leron Black.

Joquè Pegleaux: This is a game that Mizzou has no business winning, which is why they're going to. After getting smashed in their previous two contests, this will be the performance that gets everyone's hopes up heading into the conference slate. Everything clicks. Everyone has their best game of the young season all at once. Mizzou puts forth a performance that will make you think, "Wow, this team might actually make some noise this season!" But oh, friends, ‘tis only a mirage. This win is the win that will make the ensuing let downs that much more painful. Get excited!

First Rock M Talks...

the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Last Season: 12-20
KenPom: 323

A bad team lost their best player from a year ago, they probably won't be better.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Marcel Mosley	35.6	17.5	101.8
DeAndre McIntyre	17.7	2.9	75.1
	%	%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Jovaughn Love	6-9	Sr	27.0	10.9	91.0
Tevin Hammond	6-0	Sr	31.1	8.3	83.5
Ghiavonni Robinson	6-3	Jr	25.4	8.3	95.4
Thaddeus Handley, Jr	6-6	Sr	18.0	5.6	92.4
Trent Whiting	6-7	Sr	17.3	4.5	94.1
Devin Berry	6-7	Jr	14.6	2.8	101.1

From the experts...

Sam Snelling: UAPB is another one of those teams who have a lot coming back from a bad team... so that makes you wonder if they'll actually improve, or just continue to be bad. Judging by their offensive ratings they'll probably continue to not be very good and Mizzou can get out of there with a comfortable win. And UAPB will leave with some cash in their pocket.

jaeger: After a run of tough games, here's a couple chances for Mizzou to get right before conference play. As long as we're not seeing a replay of last noncon and the team is playing a little bit like a team, the Tigers should be able to ride their talent advantage to a consistent win agains UA-PB.

HHKB Chris: Who feels like getting back to winning? At this point based on my predictions, Mizzou does and nothing soothes the soul like a visit from SWAC natives, UAPB, the second of three teams Mizzou will face from the state of Arkansas. That's right Kansas, we've moved on! UAPB brings back a lot from last year's team but they were awful. So this is another game that Mizzou should be able to feast on and get the best of a lower level team. Clear the bench, let's get the bigs in there and rebound rebound rebound! If we've not seen a Terrence to Jakeenan alley oop cross court dunk by this point, we're getting it this night and the crowd goes bananas.

My almost new year's eve prediction: Mizzou 72 - UAPB 50, it being between semesters and ON A TUESDAY, let's just say the lower level will be open to anyone who wants to sit wherever they want.

Jerk Preggow: This game and its subsequent contest pit Mizzou against opponents that should allow the team to continue to "build" off the momentum gained from the big win over the Illini. Which, in turn, will allow fans' expectations to rise exponentially. "Hey, things really seem to be coming together for the Tigers! If they keep this up, they may reach up and snag a few games against the conference heavyweights!" Just keep telling yourselves that. It will make it true.

First Rock M Talks...

the Savannah State Tigers

Last Season: 9-22
KenPom: 339

Savannah State seems to play a lot of guys, none of whom seem to be all that good.

Notable Losses	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Terel Hall	28.3	10.5	98.2
	%	%

Notable Returners	Ht	Yr	MPG	PPG	ORtg
Alante Frenner	6-5	Jr	24.0	9.2	86.9
Khaleen Pinkett	6-2	So	23.7	4.9	62.0
Saadiq Muhammed	6-7	Jr	21.0	6.7	83.7
Jarvaris Jenkins	6-5	Jr	20.2	7.0	91.4
Demarcus Bryant	6-4	So	15.6	4.9	85.2
Brian Pearson	6-7	Sr	21.8	6.7	102.5
Jamal Norman	6-5	So	18.0	4.2	74.4
Treyvon Francis	6-1	Sr	20.2	2.6	61.3

From the experts...

Sam Snelling: The worst team on Mizzou's schedule hopefully gets one of the Tigers best performances as you hope this team has been able to steadily build an identity throughout the non-conference season, wrapping that up and then moving on to conference. To give it's fans confidence, Mizzou needs a pretty emphatic win here to show that they'll be able to perform better than they did a year ago in conference. I'm still skeptical on this team, so I don't think this will be a runaway win, but I do think the Tigers win comfortably.

jaeger: Lastly, maybe the weakest opponent of the slate. Mizzou should run Savannah State off the court and get some solid minutes for the back end of the bench in a final tune-up before SEC play. This is a game tailor made for our big men to blow up, as we should have a significant size advantage in the paint. Get Russ Woods rolling and we'll be in a good place to start welcoming conference goes to Mizzou Arena.

HHKB Chris: Welcome to Mizzou Arena, Savannah State of the MEAC. Mizzou does seem to be playing a lot of MEAC teams this season, almost as if they're attempting to exorcise the demons of some past game against a MEAC team...Anyway, the Tigers come into town to face our Tigers and even though they bring back a ton of players (much like UAPB) they are not how can I say this...good. Mizzou will roll in their final game of the non con and first of the new year. HAPPY 2016 TIGERS! This final win should get our Tigers on the good foot as they begin SEC play looking to have a better showing than last year and you know what, they will, hopefully.

My I'm Still Hungover Post NYE Prediction: Mizzou 71 - Savannah State 50 in a sparsely attended game at Mizzou Arena because everyone's on the road back from the Sugar Bowl, dig that!

Pack Jeglow:  At this point, that Kool-Aid just looks too tasty to pass up. Go ahead, take a sip. You know you want to. Mizzou just beat Illinois, then looked damn good against two-STRAIGHT opponents. They're good now. Believe it with all of your being. Nothing can go wrong as a result, I promise. Nothing at all.

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So to wrap this up and put a big bow on it, Let's see where everyone's predictions have Mizzou sitting going into conference play.

Jack Peglow: 7 - 6

• Wofford - L
• UMES - W
• Xavier - L
• Kansas State - L
• Northwestern - L
• Arkansas State - W
• Northern Illinois - W
• Nebraska-Omaha - W
• Arizona - L
• N.C. State - L
• Illinois - W
• Arkansas-Pine Bluff - W
• Savannah State - W

jaeger: 9-4

• Wofford - W
• UMES - W
• Xavier - L
• Kansas State - W
• North Carolina - L
• Arkansas State - W
• Northern Illinois - W
• Nebraska-Omaha - W
• Arizona - L
• N.C. State - W
• Illinois - L
• Arkansas-Pine Bluff - W
• Savannah State - W

HHKB Chris: 7-6

• Wofford - W
• UMES - W
• Xavier - L
• Kansas State - L
• Northwestern - L
• Arkansas State - W
• Northern Illinois - W
• Nebraska-Omaha - W
• Arizona - L
• N.C. State - L
• Illinois - L
• Arkansas-Pine Bluff - W
• Savannah State - W

Sam Snelling: 7-6

• Wofford - L
• UMES - W
• Xavier - L
• Kansas State - W
• North Carolina - L
• Arkansas State - W
• Northern Illinois - W
• Nebraska-Omaha - W
• Arizona - L
• N.C. State - L
• Illinois - L
• Arkansas-Pine Bluff - W
• Savannah State - W

So the consensus here seems to be that Mizzou will win vs UMES, Arkansas State, Northern Illinois, Omaha, Pine Bluff and Savannah State. That's 6 wins as the floor. Wofford worries Jack and I, but Chris and jaeger seem to think the Tigers pull that out. Jack and Chris think that K-State will upend the Tigers, while jaeger and I think Mizzou wins that one. Jack is the only one who likes Mizzou in the matchup versus Illinois, and jaeger thinks the Tigers can beat NC State in Columbia. The one thing we all can agree on is that the Tigers should have at least 4 losses. So 6 wins, 4 losses, and 3 tossups. The tossup games will likely shape the outlook for the 2015-16 Tigers. Win and you might be able to get people excited about the future of the program. Lose, and it's going to be another long winter.

Tomorrow we'll hear from Jarrett Sutton on the whole schedule, and get his outlook on where things are headed.