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Mizzou Wrestling: Preview vs. Okie State (part 2) and Live Thread

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We wrap up our look at this evening's dual opponent

Willie Miklus' ability to score bonus points is likely a key to a potential Mizzou win
Willie Miklus' ability to score bonus points is likely a key to a potential Mizzou win
The Beef

Missed Part 1?  Now you haven't

The Beef – And we’re back!  When we left off yesterday, the Tigers were staring down some tough matches at the light weights.  Now we move on to what may very well be the match of the night, with Daniel Lewis going up against #1 Alex Dieringer.  They have not faced one another, and Lewis has defeated most of their common opponents, but Dieringer has DESTROYED the group they hold in common (2 decisions of 8-1 and 6-1, 2 majors, 1 tech and 5 falls).

What do you think we see here?

BST - Dierenger hasn't lost in 2 years. Hes most likely going to be a 3X NCAA champ. I'm still really excited about this match. I think Lewis has what it takes to go out there, say eff it, and give the Cowboy a bit of a run. By no means am I saying that Lewis will beat him. But I think he can score some points, keep with within 5, and keep it to a respectable decision against the consensus 165lber (and maybe the Hodge trophy winner this year).

Shaffe - I’m super stoked to see how Lewis stacks up against Dierenger, but I don’t harbor much hope for Daniel to pull off the victory. As I project the dual though I show that Mizzou will need an upset somewhere to try and steal this thing and as amazing as Dierenger is (and he’s pretty damn impressive), this is actually one of the three weights Mizzou might have a shot at flipping. We got cheated a bit out of Miklus/Dean two weeks ago, but there’s no way Brian Smith doesn’t throw his talented redshirt freshman out there against one of the best wrestlers in the country at any weight.

The Beef - So on to 174, and another highly-rated match between Kyle Crutchmer (who is somewhere between #1 per Wrestlestat and #3 per Intermat) and Blaise Butler.  We lamented earlier that Butler seems to be headed a bit in the wrong direction on the season.  These two saw one another last year at the NCAA’s with Crutchmer taking a 5-2 decision. Honestly, I’d be good with the same outcome here, but what do you guys see happening here?

Shaffe - 174 would be the third match, along with McGhee at 125 and Lewis at 165, that I see a possible upset for the Tigers. Butler has disappointed us a bit lately but I think he is capable of beating Crutchmer, who is probably a bit more vulnerable than Dieringer on a skill basis. I don’t think Crutchmer will be able to major Butler for what it’s worth, so if Mizzou does get what they need up to this point Blaise should be able to limit the damage and make room for Miklus and Cox to stage a comeback.

BST - I think this might be the closest match of the entire dual. Both guys have been around. They both have an NCAA resume' and have faced each other on the big stage. I'm saying that Butler comes out, fired up, and gets the win here. He knows his opponent, and is hopefully healthy heading into the match. I don't think Blaise is happy with his performance lately, and he will get things back on the right track, heading down the stretch of the dual season.

The Beef - The journey continues to 184, where there may be some question about who Miklus sees.  Intermat has Nolan Boyd as the ranked (#19) wrestler, but wrestlestats believes Miklus will see Jordan Rogers.  Last time out for the Pokes, it was Nolan Boyd who scored an 11-4 win over his WVU opponent.  Will we need a Miklus pin here to have a shot in this dual?  And can he do it?

BST - Seriously Beef? You are asking if Willie Freakin' Miklus can pin an over matched opponent? You're G-D right he can! I think he'll go out there and go for the pin too. Willie ain't messin' around, hes antagonizing opposing fans (which I think is hilarious) and hes kickin' ass. It continues in Stillwater.

Shaffe - I don’t think Mizzou NEEDS a pin, but a major decision is probably the minimum required here. I think Miklus easily picks up the major and I wouldn’t ever count him out of the possibility of a pin.

The Beef - I think if anyone (for Mizzou) has an overmatched opponent, it is J’Den.  And considering we’ve not yet spoken about the HWY slot, I think that either J’Den or Miklus (and potentially both) will large results to balance out what I perceive is Okie State having the edge overall.  J’Den has been VERY aggressive of late, and even when he gives up a deep single off the shot against his CMU opponent and he is put on his butt and is sitting on his free leg, he still managed to push forward and blow throw his opponent for a really impressive takedown.  Can we assume the aggression will continue on Friday?

BST - Yeah. I think J'den has really taken this team on his back this year. He doesn't have 2 Sr. AA's to set the pace. He is the guy out there, pushing the offense, looking for team points, and getting guys fired up. He will continue that this weekend and do whatever it takes to get the team win.

Shaffe - I think we see J'Den hunt for a tech fall here but it'll be difficult for him to get it. This is probably going to be a case of Cox wrestling a guy who will have no interest in pushing any sort of pace so it'll take some big point moves or some crazy chain wrestling like we saw two weeks ago against the Cornell heavyweight.

The Beef - Finally, to HWY, where we saw Romero do a decent job last week of fighting off a potential fall against a solid, CMU opponent to lose a decision.  However, his level of competition takes a major step up this week to #5 Austin Marsden.  Part of me hopes the dual does not start at 125 so it does not finish here, but to me, anything but a pin or tech would be a decent result here.

BST - Agreed. Just don't get pinned. If he gives up 6, and its the last match of the day, there might not be any way around that for Mizzou to get the victory.

Shaffe - I concur with Beef, keep things under 15 points and wrestle the full 7 minutes. I think Romero, much like whoever Cox will face at 197, can do a good enough job to avoid the tech fall but the big question with him is whether he can avoid getting pinned. It might be rather interesting to see if this is the last match of the dual.

The Beef - So let’s finish it off here.  Run back through your picks and give me the final score of the dual.   I’ve got it tied coming to the final match at HWY, so I have the Tigers losing 20-16.

BST - I have it a straight up, 20-20 tie.

The Beef - So who wins it on criteria then?

3.15 Breaking Ties in Dual Meets and Team-Advancement Tournaments

When two teams finish in a tie in a dual meet or a team-advancement tournament, the following criteria shall be applied to determine a winner:

3.15.1 Greater number of victories.

Note: Forfeits, defaults and disqualifications count toward total number of victories.

3.15.2 Combined total number of falls, forfeits, defaults and disqualifications.

3.15.3 Total match points scored only from decisions, major decisions and technical falls.

3.15.4 First takedown.

BST - I believe OkSt. would take it on having the pin at HWT, in my scenario.

Shaffe - I guess I’ll be the pessimist of the bunch and say I’ve got 21-14 Cowboys marked down for now. I see Oklahoma State taking down major decisions at 141, 157, and 285 go along with victories at 125, 165, and 174. For Mizzou I see decisions at 133 and 149 and major decisions at 184 and 197. However if the Tigers can steal one at 125/165/174 and pick up one other team point somewhere else then it’s a 17-17 final. With a break for Mizzou early in this match we could be looking up criteria or counting bonus points to find a winner.  I see single point opportunities at 141 (Manley holds things to a decision), 149 (Mayes majors his opponent), and 184/197 (tech fall or pin instead of a major decision).

The Beef – Well done gents.  If our readers have stuck with us long enough, let’s go ahead and say this will also serve as the live thread for the match.  And while we wait for the action to kick off, go ahead and check out FloWrestling for their preview and coverage of the dual tonight