Missouri's bowl push begins, and Middle Tennessee is in no way a cupcake

Here are today's Mizzou Links.

By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Oct 18, 2016, 4:50am CDT

"We’ve been told these are the four games — if we really want to make it to a bowl, which we do — these are the four games we have to shine in," sophomore right tackle Paul Adams said. "We can’t have any hiccups. If we do have a hiccup, we have to make up for it in our last two (at No. 18 Tennessee and versus No. 17 Arkansas). Personally, I want to go 6-0 in the next six games, and I’m sure everyone on the team does as well." [...]

"It would mean a lot," Scherer said in response to an earlier question. "It’s another game that myself and the rest of the seniors get to play in a Missouri uniform. Those are dwindling down, so to have an extra one would be awesome."

-- KC Star: Push for bowl eligibility picks up for Mizzou during next four games

Considering the variance of the points on the scoreboard, and considering what has felt like an up-and-down season so far, Missouri is basically exactly where it was supposed to be midway through the season. At the beginning of the season, Mizzou ranked just past 50th in S&P+; now, the Tigers rank 49th. Two months ago, I had the Tigers with a slightly better than 50 percent chance of reaching a bowl; now, they're at 59 percent.

The Arkansas game is a tossup at the moment (from a stat perspective, the Razorbacks have been quite lucky in three wins this year, and they're currently only four spots higher than Mizzou), but still, the next four games are obviously the key to Mizzou's bowl chances. Not only are they against lesser teams, but they're also going to show us pretty clearly where the Tigers' collective head is at after these two particularly humbling losses.

One other potentially surprising note from the S&P+ ratings, by the way: MTSU is 52nd, only three spots behind Mizzou. The Blue Raiders are a legitimately strong team and should be viewed as such. This Saturday's game is potentially the hardest of the coming weeks:

MTSU: 59% win probability (projected score: 33-29)
Kentucky: 73% (34-23)
South Carolina: 70% (30-21)
Vanderbilt: 81% (33-18)

Keep that in mind. When you see headlines below like "Tigers 'not good enough' to treat Middle Tennessee like a cupcake opponent," realize that a) this is correct, of course, and b) MTSU is not bad enough to be treated like a cupcake. Mizzou better be ready. (It kind of feels like saying this is both reassuring and terrifying. And yes, I still hate that this game is Homecoming. But you didn't ask, did you...)