It's game time, y'all.
December 10th, 11 am
Mizzou Arena @ COMO
Scorch Trials v2
Mark Neely & Kara Lawson
Tiger Radio Network
Mike Kelly, Gary Link
Keeping an eye on the Four Factors! For a quick explanation on what they mean: Click Here!
I broke down the four factors in the preview, but this game is no cake walk... for either team. Arizona has just a 77% confidence in KenPom which basically means Mizzou has a one in four shot to win. Or to put in another way:
@SamTSnelling So…You’re saying Mizzou has the same chance as 538 gave to Trump to win? And the Cubs?— Matt Sveum (@isveum) December 9, 2016
That's a realistic chance! Not probably, but certainly possible. And people accuse me of being negative!
The 3 keys from the preview are:
Arizona’s eFG%: Missouri is the #3 ranked eFG% defense. Part of this is due to it’s #1 ranked 3pt defense, but Mizzou had held opponents to just 40% eFG%. This stat takes 3 point shooting into account when figuring FG%, so it adds value to a 3pt make basically. If Arizona is able to push that number over 50%, it’s hard to see Missouri winning.
Blocked shots: Eh, rebounds are obvious, but the bigger impact will likely come in shots altered or blocked by the size advantage of the Wildcats. Mizzou gets their shot blocked a lot, on almost 13% of their shots. They average around 62 shots a game which accounts to about 8 blocks per. Less of that would be good, more of it would be bad.
Push Pace: We know Missouri isn’t very good. They won’t have many advantages in this game but the ones they will have is the ability to play more players than Arizona. Get the Wildcats into foul trouble or simply exhaust Arizona and you have a chance.
If Missouri is going to pull off the upset, it's going to take a big effort and they're going to have to get a lot of breaks to go their way. It's really unlikely that the Tigers pull the upset, but for all the talent and size the Wildcats have, this is their first true road game of the season, so Mizzou Arena (if the crowd is good) could play a big role. From Chris Bohkay's slightly snarky piece this morning:
But Mizzou has a chance, and that chance hinges on one thing. That one thing, is YOU Mizzou fans.
Right now you’re asking yourself, how can I, a lone person do anything to affect this game today? How can I make a difference?
First off, I’m not blaming the last two years and change on you, but come on, if it’s not the players, and it’s not the coach, maybe it is you and it is time to look in the mirror and accept responsibility for your role in this whole thing. Actually, I am blaming you. This is YOUR fault!
I mean, Kim Anderson even admits this is at least partially your fault.
I enjoyed the read, but beware, snark lies ahead.
Let's go Tigers, surprise us and beat Arizona! M-I-Z!
Does Mizzou Win today?
This poll is closed
Never a doubt!
100% Mizzou win!