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Missouri has a 74 percent chance of winning 6+ games in 2017, according to nerd math

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The Tigers are favorites in five games and the slightest of underdogs in three others.

NCAA Football: Brigham Young at Missouri Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a busy week! Over at SB Nation, I posted my updated S&P+ rankings on Thursday, and I posted updated win probabilities this morning as well.

The adjustments ended up friendly to Missouri. The combination of a recruiting bump (some late movement moved Mizzou’s rankings up a bit per 247), the addition of Nate Brown’s 2015 stats to the returning production equation (injury adjustments don’t happen until everyone’s preview is written), and other teams moving down meant the Tigers moved up six spots, from 53rd to 47th. Their win projections also shifted upward a bit.

According to S&P+...

  • Mizzou has a 73.5 percent chance of winning at least six games.
  • The Tigers have at least 80 percent win probability in each non-conference game — 80% against Purdue, 86% at UConn, 88% against Idaho, and 95% against Missouri State — and are at 51 percent, a 0.2-point favorite, against South Carolina.
  • That’s the only conference game in which the Tigers are favored, but from an odds perspective, they are likely steal another game or two because they are only the slightest of underdogs against Vanderbilt (48 percent), Kentucky (44 percent), and Tennessee (43 percent) and are projected within a touchdown of Arkansas (35 percent, or 6.6 points).
  • Their most likely record: 6-6 (25.6% chance), followed by 7-5 (24.9%), 5-7 (17.1%), and 8-4 (15.2%).

Poll

If I offered you a 6-6 Mizzou finish right now, would you take it?

This poll is closed

  • 12%
    ABSOLUTELY.
    (75 votes)
  • 25%
    I guess.
    (156 votes)
  • 30%
    Nah.
    (190 votes)
  • 32%
    HELL NO.
    (203 votes)
624 votes total Vote Now

Missouri is a projected four-touchdown winner against Missouri State, but the second game of the season against South Carolina is absolutely enormous.

The Gamecocks are projected 39th overall — 66th on offense, 25th on defense — and the game is an almost perfect tossup. Win that, and bowl eligibility becomes incredibly likely. Lose it, and the Tigers are going to have to steal two of those “slight underdogs” games in SEC play. Possible? Absolutely. But difficult.