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Lock Should Put Up Big Numbers in Final Game

Expect big things from Drew Lock Monday, as Oklahoma State has the 100th-ranked defense in the country.

Missouri v Tennessee Photo by Donald Page/Getty Images

Monday marks the final time Missouri quarterback Drew Lock will don the black and gold.

While it’ll surely be a sad sight seeing the Lee’s Summit product step off the field for the final time as a Tiger, it’s fair to expect that to come after yet another dominant game by him in a convincing victory.

Oklahoma State’s defense ranks as the 100th-best unit in the country, allowing a staggering 437.1 yards per game and 51 touchdowns total. The Cowboys’ secondary is the weaker half of their defense, as the unit ranks 108th in the nation in yards allowed (260 ypg) and 95th in team pass efficiency defense (141.43) — all while “limiting” opposing quarterbacks to a 62 percent clip.

Now, I’m no math major and didn’t take any classes past Algebra II, but if I’m doing my math correctly here, that adds up to what should be a huge game from the SEC single-season touchdown leader.

And sure, Lock hasn’t quite lived up to the preseason hype where he was projected to possibly become the first Missouri player nominated for the Heisman since Chase Daniel in 2007, and the favorite to become the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. However, he’s still had an impressive senior campaign during which he made the All-SEC Second-Team behind Heisman-runner-up Tua Tagovailoa.

Lock ranks 17th in the country in points responsible per game (15.7), 19th in passing yards per game (3,125), 23rd in touchdown passes (25) and 38th in passing efficiency (145.6).

Oklahoma State has played five quarterbacks with a better passing efficiency rating than Lock. To compare this as best I can, I’ll take a look at the two quarterbacks with the closest ratings to Lock in Texas’ Sam Elhinger and Iowa State’s Brock Purdy.

Elhinger had a solid game in a 38-35 shootout loss, completing 22-of-42 passes (52.4%) for 283 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Purdy played efficiently in the Cyclones’ 48-42 win in Stillwater — 18-for-23 (78.3%) for 318 yards and four scores.

It’s fair to think Lock will produce similar numbers to Elhinger and Purdy, as he sits just behind the two in passer efficiency rating, just below Elhinger and 21 spots above Purdy in points responsible for per game, three spots above Elhinger and 63 spots above Purdy in passing yards and is tied with Elhinger and 25 spots above Purdy in touchdown passes.

Monday’s game should be a fun shootout, and I fully expect Lock to come out on top with one of his best performances as a Tiger.