Missouri lost to LSU on Saturday, capping a mere 1-1 week for the Tigers and ending a five-game winning streak. The good news, however, as it pertains to NCAA Tournament projections is ... everybody else loses games, too.
Mizzou remains comfortably aligned as about a 7-seed per most bracket projections at the moment. Per TeamRankings.com, the Tigers have made the biggest positive leap over the last three weeks.
Mizzou is a projected favorite in three of its last four regular season games, though KenPom odds suggest that a 2-2 record is a hair more likely than 3-1. But the path is pretty clear: win three of four — which means avoiding upsets against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt and splitting the Kentucky and Arkansas games — and you’re at least a 7-seed.
ESPN’s resident bracketdork has Mizzou a projected 7-seed, taking on Ed Cooley’s Providence Friars. Because he now has Kansas a 1-seed, he couldn’t force the Tigers and Jayhawks into the same portion of the bracket, so Mizzou gets Duke instead.
(Kansas, by the way, is going to be an interesting test of this new RPI quadrants system. Per KenPom, the Jayhawks are barely good enough to be a 3-seed, but their résumé has aced the quadrants, and they have a shot at a 1 because of it.)
Each week, I take a broader look at the teams in Missouri’s portion of the bracket(s) using Lunardi’s projections, Jerry Palm’s (both because of the timing of release and because his are usually semi-insane and very different from Lunardi’s), and both the KenPom and RPI rankings.
Here’s a list of the teams in the range between 6-seeds and the end of the bubble, ordered loosely on who’s in the best and worst shape, bracket-wise, at the moment. As always, root against all of these teams.
There are 30 teams here, and about 28 of them will get in, minus a few more spots when upsets begin happening during Championship Week(s). Mizzou is somewhere around 19 or so spots from the end of the bubble and is probably slightly closer to being a 6-seed than an 8 at the moment. We’ll see if or how that changes if the Tigers beat Ole Miss and lose to Kentucky this week — per KenPom odds, there’s a 59-percent chance of a 1-1 week, a 29-percent chance of 2-0, and a 12-percent chance of 0-2.