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A brief history of returning first-team all-conference QBs

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Drew Lock is the 35th Power 5 QB in the past decade to earn first-team honors and come back the next year.

NCAA Football: Tennessee at Missouri
Drew Lock: the only returning first-team all-conference quarterback from a Power-5 conference.
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Lock is the only first-team all-conference quarterback from a Power-5 conference that is back this season to defend the title.

Lamar Jackson? Gone. As are J.T. Barrett, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

Since 2007, Lock is the 35th quarterback from a Power-5 team to be a first-team all-conference selection (according to the coaches or the media) one season, then return the next year.

Who are the other 34, you may ask? Well, here they are. Separated by conference:

SEC

  • Jalen Hurts, Alabama -- 2016
  • Dak Prescott, Mississippi St. -- 2014
  • Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M -- 2012
  • Tyler Wilson, Arkansas -- 2011
  • Tim Tebow, Florida -- 2008
  • Tim Tebow, Florida -- 2007

ACC

  • Lamar Jackson, Louisville -- 2016
  • Deshaun Watson, Clemson -- 2015
  • Jameis Winston, Florida St. -- 2013
  • Tajh Boyd, Clemson -- 2012
  • Tajh Boyd, Clemson -- 2011
  • Josh Nesbitt, Georgia Tech -- 2009
  • Russell Wilson, NC State -- 2008

Big Ten

  • J.T. Barrett, Ohio State -- 2016
  • J.T. Barrett, Ohio State -- 2014
  • Braxton Miller, Ohio State -- 2013
  • Taylor Martinez, Nebraska -- 2012
  • Braxton Miller, Ohio State -- 2012
  • Dan Persa, Northwestern -- 2010
  • Denard Robinson, Michigan -- 2010
  • Daryll Clark, Penn State -- 2008
  • Todd Boeckman, Ohio State -- 2007

Big 12

  • Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma -- 2016
  • Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma -- 2015
  • Trevone Boykin, TCU -- 2014
  • Bryce Petty, Baylor -- 2013
  • Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma St. -- 2010
  • Sam Bradford, Oklahoma -- 2008
  • Chase Daniel, Missouri -- 2007

Pac-12

  • Jake Browning, Washington -- 2016
  • Luke Falk, Washington St. -- 2015
  • Marcus Mariota, Oregon -- 2013
  • Marcus Mariota, Oregon -- 2012
  • Andrew Luck, Stanford -- 2010

Now, the more important question when it comes to Lock and possible ramifications for the 2018 Tigers. What have these other 34 quarterbacks done for an encore?

Some took a step up. Some pretty much stayed the same. Most took at least a little step back when it came to production.

Here’s how those broke down, based solely on total yards and touchdowns from one year to the next:

Step Up (11)

  • Barrett, 2017
  • Mayfield, 2017
  • Mayfield, 2016
  • Watson, 2016
  • Mariota, 2014
  • Mariota, 2013
  • Boyd, 2012
  • Weeden, 2011
  • Clark, 2009
  • R. Wilson, 2009
  • Daniel, 2008

Mixed Results (5)

  • Jackson, 2017
  • Miller, 2013
  • Luck, 2011
  • Robinson, 2011
  • Tebow, 2009

Step Back (18)

  • Browning, 2017
  • Hurts, 2017
  • Falk, 2016
  • Barrett, 2015
  • Boykin, 2015
  • Prescott, 2015
  • Miller, 2014
  • Petty, 2014
  • Winston, 2014
  • Boyd, 2013
  • Manziel, 2013
  • Martinez, 2013
  • T. Wilson, 2012
  • Persa, 2011
  • Nesbitt, 2010
  • Bradford, 2009
  • Boeckman, 2008
  • Tebow, 2008

(Barrett 2015, Miller 2014, Martinez, Nesbitt and Bradford all had injuries that derailed their follow-up seasons. Boeckman had Terrelle Pryor.)

On the whole, on a per-game basis, per-game stats for the year of the first-team honor for these 34 signal-callers didn’t change all that much to the next season.

  • Year Of: 18.9-of-29.2 (64.5%), 250.4 yards (8.57 per), 2.22 TD (7.61%), 0.63 INT (2.14%), 157.35 rating, 47.5 rush yards, 0.71 TD, 298.0 total yards, 2.94 total TD
  • Year After: 19.6-of-29.7 (66.1%), 255.8 yards (8.62 per), 2.23 TD (7.52%), 0.69 INT (2.34%), 158.71 rating, 37.7 rush yards, 0.59 TD, 293.6 total yards, 2.82 total TD

Here’s a bit of bad news, though: these quarterbacks’ teams have a win percentage of .038 worse in Year 2 than in Year 1, which translates to about a half win less over a 13-game season.

In fact, only seven quarterbacks on the list saw their team’s record improve the next season: 2017 Mayfield, 2014 Mariota, 2014 Miller (but it was Barrett who was doing the winning, as Miller was out for the year), 2012 Boyd, 2011, Robinson, 2011 Weeden and 2008 Tebow.

So the story of quarterbacks like Lock from the past decade has been one of just about even production from one year to the next on slightly worse teams.

Which is kind of what Daniel did on the Tigers of 2007 and 2008. History repeating, 10 years later?

Here’s the whole spreadsheet, if you want a look: