Projecting Every SEC Game in 2018

With SEC Media Days winding down and the season (somehow) just around the corner, it’s about time I get to my annual rite of passage: guessing.

Well, taking my Phil Steele guide and making up some formulas as cover for a semi-scientific way to pick every single regular-season game in the SEC this year, that is.

As I wrote in this space last year, my method is admittedly kind of dumb. I’ll get into it at the bottom of the post, if you care to read it.

But the proof is in the pudding. And the pudding, in this case, takes the form of a .712 correct-pick percentage overall and a .585 win percentage in conference when it comes to picking every SEC game over four of the past five years (2013-15, a break, then 2017).

That would be like your coach going 34-14 (19-13) over a four-year stretch, minus bowl games. I think that earns me an extension (unless I’m Kevin Sumlin...).

I’ll shut up now. Let’s get to the projections:

West
1. Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
2. Mississippi State (10-2, 6-2)
3. Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)
4. Auburn (8-4, 5-3)
5. LSU (6-6, 3-5)
6. Arkansas (7-5, 3-5)
7. Ole Miss (5-7, 2-6)

East
1. Georgia (10-2, 6-2)
2. South Carolina (8-4, 5-3)
3. Florida (8-4, 5-3)
4. Missouri (7-5, 4-4)
5. Kentucky (5-7, 3-5)
6. Tennessee (5-7, 1-7)
7. Vanderbilt (4-8, 1-7)

—————

So the model says Missouri is...going to have the exact same record as last year. And, really, with such a steep step up in scheduling, the 2018 Tigers could very well be a solidly improved team with little — or nothing — to show about it in the win-loss column.

Here’s how the model says the season is playing out:

Missouri (7-5, 4-4)

vs. UT Martin – W
vs. Wyoming – W
at Purdue – W
vs. Georgia – L
at South Carolina – W
at Alabama – L
vs. Memphis – L
vs. Kentucky – W
at Florida – L
vs. Vanderbilt – W
at Tennessee – W
vs. Arkansas – L

I...mostly agree with this. I think the Memphis game is a win, though, so I’ll say 8-4, 4-4. With my gut. My final answer is the model, though. So my final answer is 7-5, 4-4.

I’d also switch out that South Carolina win for a loss and that Arkansas loss for a win. With my gut, that is.

But I’m wrong 28.9 percent of the time overall and 41.5 percent of the time in conference. So a 9-3, 6-2 season would be within my margin of error.

So would a 5-7, 2-6 season (although, personally, I think the 9-3 end would be a lot more likely than the 5-7 end).

—————

Here’s every single game. YOU’RE WELCOME!

West

Alabama (11-1, 7-1)
vs. Louisville (in Orlando) – W
vs. Arkansas St. – W
at Ole Miss – W
vs. Texas A&M – W
vs. Louisiana – W
at Arkansas – W
vs. Missouri – W
at Tennessee – W
at LSU – W
vs. Mississippi St. – W
vs. The Citadel – W
vs. Auburn – L

Mississippi St. (10-2, 6-2)
vs. Stephen F. Austin – W
at Kansas St. – W
vs. Louisiana – W
at Kentucky – W
vs. Florida – W
vs. Auburn – L
at LSU – W
vs. Texas A&M – W
vs. Louisiana Tech – W
at Alabama – L
vs. Arkansas – W
at Ole Miss – W

Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)
vs. Northwestern St. – W
vs. Clemson – L
vs. ULM – W
at Alabama – L
vs. Arkansas (in Arlington) – W
vs. Kentucky – W
at South Carolina – W
at Mississippi St. – L
at Auburn – W
vs. Ole Miss – W
vs. UAB – W
vs. LSU – L

Auburn (8-4, 5-3)
vs. Washington (in Atlanta) – L
vs. Alabama St. – W
vs. LSU – L
vs. Arkansas – W
vs. Southern Miss – W
at Mississippi St. – W
vs. Tennessee – W
at Ole Miss – L
vs. Texas A&M – L
at Georgia – W
vs. Liberty – W
at Alabama – W
(Sidenote: this one’s kind of hilarious to me. Beating the top three teams in the league...only to finish 8-4.)

LSU (6-6, 3-5)
vs. Miami (in Arlington) – L
vs. SE Louisiana – W
at Auburn – W
vs. Louisiana Tech – W
vs. Ole Miss – L
at Florida – L
vs. Georgia – L
vs. Mississippi St. – L
vs. Alabama – L
at Arkansas – W
vs. Rice – W
at Texas A&M – W
(OK, last sidenote: the model was thisclose to having LSU miss its first bowl since 2000. I came up one SEC win short overall, and LSU had the closest sub-.5 win portion to round up. So it got its third SEC win and a bowl berth.)

Arkansas (7-5, 3-5)
vs. Eastern Illinois – W
at Colorado St. – W
vs. North Texas – W
at Auburn – L
vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington) – L
vs. Alabama – L
vs. Ole Miss – W
vs. Tulsa – W
vs. Vanderbilt – W
vs. LSU – L
at Mississippi St. – L
at Missouri – W

Ole Miss (5-7, 2-6)
vs. Texas Tech (in Houston) – L
vs. Southern Illinois – W
vs. Alabama – L
vs. Kent St. – W
at LSU – W
vs. ULM – W
at Arkansas – L
vs. Auburn – W
vs. South Carolina – L
at Texas A&M – L
at Vanderbilt – L
vs. Mississippi St. – L

East

Georgia (10-2, 6-2)
vs. Austin Peay – W
at South Carolina – L
vs. Middle Tennessee – W
at Missouri – W
vs. Tennessee – W
vs. Vanderbilt – W
at LSU – W
vs. Florida (in Jacksonville) – W
at Kentucky – W
vs. Auburn – L
vs. Massachusetts – W
vs. Georgia Tech – W

South Carolina (8-4, 5-3)
vs. Coastal Carolina – W
vs. Georgia – W
vs. Marshall – W
at Vanderbilt – W
at Kentucky – L
vs. Missouri – L
vs. Texas A&M – L
vs. Tennessee – W
at Ole Miss – W
at Florida – W
vs. Chattanooga – W
at Clemson -- L

Florida (8-4, 5-3)
vs. Charleston Southern – W
vs. Kentucky – W
vs. Colorado St. – W
at Tennessee – W
at Mississippi St. – L
vs. LSU – W
at Vanderbilt – W
vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) – L
vs. Missouri – W
vs. South Carolina – L
vs. Idaho – W
at Florida St. – L

Missouri (7-5, 4-4)
vs. UT Martin – W
vs. Wyoming – W
at Purdue – W
vs. Georgia – L
at South Carolina – W
at Alabama – L
vs. Memphis – L
vs. Kentucky – W
at Florida – L
vs. Vanderbilt – W
at Tennessee – W
vs. Arkansas – L

Kentucky (5-7, 3-5)
vs. Central Michigan – W
at Florida – L
vs. Murray St. – W
vs. Mississippi St. – L
vs. South Carolina – W
at Texas A&M – L
vs. Vanderbilt – W
at Missouri – L
vs. Georgia – L
at Tennessee – W
vs. Middle Tennessee – L
at Louisville – L

Tennessee (5-7, 1-7)
vs. West Virginia (in Charlotte) – W
vs. East Tennessee St. – W
vs. UTEP – W
vs. Florida – L
at Georgia – L
at Auburn – L
vs. Alabama – L
at South Carolina – L
vs. Charlotte – W
vs. Kentucky – L
vs. Missouri – L
at Vanderbilt – W

Vanderbilt (4-8, 1-7)
vs. Middle Tennessee – W
vs. Nevada – W
at Notre Dame – L
vs. South Carolina – L
vs. Tennessee St. – W
at Georgia – L
vs. Florida – L
at Kentucky – L
at Arkansas – L
at Missouri – L
vs. Ole Miss – W
vs. Tennessee – L

—————

OK, let’s “rap” for a sec. Pull up a chair and turn it around, Slater style, because we’re about to get “real.”

As far as I can tell, Missouri’s games break into four categories this season:

Pretty Sure Things (3)
vs. UT Martin
vs. Wyoming
vs. Vanderbilt

Probable Wins (5)
at Purdue
vs. Memphis
vs. Kentucky
at Tennessee
vs. Arkansas (again, this is the gut talking, not the model)

Probable Losses (2)
at South Carolina
at Florida

Pretty Sure Losses (2)
vs. Georgia
at Alabama

If you look at it that way, then you could say Missouri’s 3-2, with seven toss-ups of varying degrees. The Tigers split them 4-3, then they’re right back where they were last year. They do any better, then they end up better than they did last year.

The gut says Missouri will. The model, though, she protests.

Here’s my work, if you wanted to see:

And, if you’re reeeeeeeeeeeally in to fine print, here’s the methodology:

I take the always indispensable Phil Steele guide. I project how many times each team will face each betting line condition during their conference and non-conference slates on the season (home favorite, home underdog, road favorite, road underdog, etc.).

Then I see each team’s success in all of those conditions over the past five years -- weighting for recency — and plot out how many expected wins the team will have for each condition.

For example, with Missouri, in the SEC, I predict the Tigers will be home favorites three times, home underdogs once, road favorites once and road dogs three times. Based on weighted win percentages in each of those conditions over the past five years, I’d expect 2.2 wins in the three home favorite games, .27 wins in the one home dog game, .67 wins in the one road favorite game and .60 wins in the three road dog games.

Or 3.734 SEC wins overall.

That was the first model I ever used. It is “Model 2” on the spreadsheet.

For the model I added last year (Model 1 in your hearts, minds and spreadsheets), I took each team’s expected win percentage in non-conference and conference games over the past five years (games favored in divided by total games) weighted it for recency and saw how much the teams tended to over- or underperform its expected win percentage.

Then, I applied it to how many games I expected the teams to be favored in this year.

So for example, with Missouri, I expect them to be favored in four of eight SEC games this year, or 50.0 percent of the games. The Tigers weighted average over the past five years is overperforming by 2.90 percentage points, so that would mean winning 52.9 percent of its SEC games. Or 4.23 SEC wins.

Then I took the two models and mushed them together for a final projection. Then I started with the best projected conference record and worked all the way down the worst assigning the most likely losses given each team’s success rate in those more specialized fave/dog conditions I mentioned earlier.

Get it? No? I don’t blame you.