Where should Drew Lock want to go in the NFL Draft?

Drew Lock’s going to be a first-round pick.

If there was any doubt as to that fact before the Senior Bowl (which...was there?), he certainly erased it by performing in such a way that drew rave reviews.

Now that we’ve established this baseline of fact for the post, let’s talk about where Lock should want to go in the first round. I realize that, in the real world, it all has to do with which teams are picking when and what needs they have (Baker Mayfield did a solid by taking Cleveland off the board for him last year), but in the world of pseudo-mathematical football analysis in which I traffic, we’re going to approach this question from a standpoint of which teams have been the best to their young quarterbacks? And which draft positions have been the best to said young quarterbacks?

We looked at all 30 of the quarterbacks drafted by 20 franchises in the first round from 2009-18 (quick, name the 12 who haven’t picked a first-round quarterback since 2009...ok, too late) and found this:

By Team

Arizona Cardinals

Josh Rosen (10th, 2018)
Career w/team: 217-of-393, 2278 yards, 11 TD, 14 INT, 66.7 rating; 138 rush yards; 3-10 record (1 year, 14 games/13 starts)

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson (32nd, 2018)
Career w/team: 99-of-170, 1201 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT, 84.5 rating; 695 rush yards, 5 TD; 6-1 record (1 year, 16 games/7 starts)

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen (7th, 2018)
Career w/team: 169-of-320, 2074 yards, 10 TD, 12 INT, 67.9 rating; 631 rush yards, 8 TD; 5-6 record (1 year, 12 games/11 starts)
EJ Manuel (16th, 2013)
Career w/team: 319-of-547, 3502 yards, 19 TD, 15 INT, 77.5 rating; 324 rush yards, 4 TD; 6-11 record (4 years, 28 games/17 starts)
Totals: 488-of-867, 5576 yards, 29 TD, 27 INT, 74.0 rating; 955 rush yards, 12 TD, 11-17 record (5 years, 40 games/28 starts)

Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton (1st, 2011)
Career w/team: 2321-of-3891, 28469 yards, 182 TD, 107 INT, 86.4 rating; 4808 rush yards, 58 TD; 68-53-1 record (8 years, 123 games/122 starts)

Chicago Bears

Mitchell Trubisky (2nd, 2017)
Career w/team: 485-of-764, 5416 yards, 31 TD, 19 INT, 87.7 rating; 669 rush yards, 5 TD; 15-11 record (2 years, 26 games/starts)

Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield (1st, 2018)
Career w/team: 310-of-486, 3725 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 93.7 rating; 131 rush yards; 6-7 record (1 year, 14 games/13 starts)
Brandon Weeden (22nd, 2012)
Career w/team: 438-of-784, 5116 yards, 23 TD, 26 INT, 71.8 rating; 155 rush yards; 5-15 record (2 years, 23 games/20 starts)
Johnny Manziel (22nd, 2014)
Career w/team: 147-of-258, 1675 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT, 74.4 rating; 259 rush yards, TD; 2-6 record (2 years, 15 games/8 starts)
Totals: 895-of-1528, 10516 yards, 57 TD, 47 INT, 79.2 rating; 545 rush yards, TD; 13-28 record (5 years, 52 games/41 starts)

Denver Broncos

Tim Tebow (25th, 2010)
Career w/team: 167-of-353, 2383 yards, 17 TD, 9 INT, 75.1 rating; 887 rush yards, 12 TD; 8-6 record (2 years, 23 games/14 starts)
Paxton Lynch (26th, 2016)
Career w/team: 79-of-128, 792 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT, 76.7 rating; 55 rush yards; 1-3 record (2 years, 5 games/4 starts)
Totals: 246-of-481, 3175 yards, 21 TD, 13 INT, 75.5 rating; 942 rush yards, 12 TD; 9-9 record (4 years, 28 games/18 starts)

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford (1st, 2009)
Career w/team: 3372-of-5405, 38526 yards, 237 TD, 129 INT, 88.4 rating; 1020 rush yards, 14 TD; 66-75 record (10 years, 141 games/starts)

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson (12th, 2017)
Career w/team: 471-of-709, 5864 yards, 45 TD, 17 INT, 103.1 rating; 820 rush yards, 7 TD; 14-8 record (2 years, 23 games/22 starts)

Indianapolis Colts

Andrew Luck (1st, 2012)
Career w/team: 2000-of-3290, 23671 yards, 171 TD, 83 INT, 89.5 rating; 1590 rush yards, 14 TD; 53-33 record (6 years, 86 games/starts)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Blake Bortles (3rd, 2014)
Career w/team: 1561-of-2632, 17646 yards, 103 TD, 75 INT, 80.6 rating; 1775 rush yards, 8 TD; 24-49 record (5 years, 75 games/73 starts)
Blaine Gabbert (10th, 2011)
Career w/team: 414-of-777, 4357 yards, 22 TD, 24 INT, 66.4 rating; 186 rush yards; 5-22 record (3 years, 28 games/27 starts)
Totals: 1975-of-3409, 22003 yards, 125 TD, 99 INT, 77.4 rating; 1961 rush yards, 8 TD; 29-71 record (8 years, 103 games/100 starts)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes (10th, 2017)
Career w/team: 405-of-615, 5381 yards, 50 TD, 13 INT, 111.7 rating; 282 rush yards, 2 TD; 13-4 record (2 years, 17 games/starts)

Miami Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill (8th, 2012)
Career w/team: 1829-of-2911, 20434 yards, 123 TD, 75 INT, 87.0 rating; 1210 rush yards, 6 TD; 42-46 record (6 years, 88 games/starts)

Minnesota Vikings

Christian Ponder (12th, 2011)
Career w/team: 632-of-1057, 6658 yards, 38 TD, 36 INT, 75.9 rating; 639 rush yards, 7 TD; 14-21-1 record (4 years, 28 games/26 starts)
Teddy Bridgewater (32nd, 2014)
Career w/team: 551-of-851, 6150 yards, 28 TD, 22 INT, 86.3 rating; 398 rush yards, 4 TD; 17-11 record (3 years, 30 games/28 starts)
Totals: 1183-of-1908, 12808 yards, 66 TD, 58 INT, 80.6 rating; 1037 rush yards, 11 TD; 31-32-1 record (7 years, 58 games/54 starts)

New York Jets

Sam Darnold (3rd, 2018)
Career w/team: 239-of-414, 2865 yards, 17 TD, 15 INT, 77.6 rating; 138 rush yards, TD; 4-9 record (1 year, 13 games/starts)
Mark Sanchez (5th, 2009)
Career w/team: 1028-of-1867, 12092 yards, 68 TD, 69 INT, 71.7 rating; 342 rush yards, 12 TD; 33-29 record (4 years, 62 games/starts)
Totals: 1267-of-2281, 14957 yards, 85 TD, 84 INT, 72.8 rating; 480 rush yards, 13 TD; 37-38 record (5 years, 75 games/starts)

Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz (2nd, 2016)
Career w/team: 923-of-1448, 10152 yards, 70 TD, 28 INT, 92.5 rating; 542 rush yards, 2 TD; 23-17 record (3 years, 40 games/starts)

St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams

Sam Bradford (1st, 2010)
Career w/team: 1032-of-1760, 11065 yards, 59 TD, 38 INT, 79.3 rating; 244 rush yards, 2 TD; 18-30-1 record (5 years, 49 games/starts)
Jared Goff (1st, 2016)
Career w/team: 772-of-1243, 9581 yards, 65 TD, 26 INT, 94.7 rating; 175 rush yards, 4 TD; 24-14 record (3 years, 38 games/starts)
Totals: 1804-of-3003, 20646 yards, 124 TD, 64 INT, 85.7 rating; 419 rush yards, 6 TD; 42-44-1 (8 years, 87 games/starts)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis Winston (1st, 2015)
Career w/team: 1183-of-1922, 14628 yards, 88 TD, 58 INT, 87.8 rating; 794 rush yards, 9 TD; 21-33 record (4 years, 56 games/54 starts)
Josh Freeman (17th, 2009)
Career w/team: 1144-of-1967, 13534 yards, 80 TD, 66 INT, 78.8 rating; 922 rush yards, 4 TD; 24-35 record (5 years, 60 games/59 starts)
Totals: 2327-of-3889, 28162 yards, 168 TD, 124 INT, 83.2 rating; 1716 rush yards, 13 TD; 45-68 record (9 years, 116 games/113 starts)

Tennessee Titans

Marcus Mariota (2nd, 2015)
Career w/team: 1015-of-1605, 12004 yards, 69 TD, 42 INT, 89.4 rating; 1270 rush yards, 11 TD; 27-28 record (4 years, 56 games/55 starts)
Jake Locker (8th, 2011)
Career w/team: 408-of-709, 4967 yards, 27 TD, 22 INT, 79.0 rating; 644 rush yards, 5 TD; 9-14 record (4 years, 30 games/23 starts)
Totals: 1423-of-2314, 16971 yards, 96 TD, 64 INT, 86.2 rating; 1914 rush yards, 16 TD; 36-42 record (8 years, 86 games/78 starts)

Washington

Robert Griffin III (2nd, 2012)
Career w/team: 679-of-1063, 8097 yards, 40 TD, 23 INT, 90.6 rating; 1480 rush yards, 8 TD; 14-21 record (3 years, 37 games/35 starts)

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By Pick Position

Picks 1-8 (17 players, 70 seasons)

Matthew Stafford (1st, 2009, Detroit)
Career w/team: 3372-of-5405, 38526 yards, 237 TD, 129 INT, 88.4 rating; 1020 rush yards, 14 TD; 66-75 record (10 years, 141 games/starts)
Sam Bradford (1st, 2010, St. Louis)
Career w/team: 1032-of-1760, 11065 yards, 59 TD, 38 INT, 79.3 rating; 244 rush yards, 2 TD; 18-30-1 record (5 years, 49 games/starts)
Cam Newton (1st, 2011, Carolina)
Career w/team: 2321-of-3891, 28469 yards, 182 TD, 107 INT, 86.4 rating; 4808 rush yards, 58 TD; 68-53-1 record (8 years, 123 games/122 starts)
Andrew Luck (1st, 2012, Indianapolis)
Career w/team: 2000-of-3290, 23671 yards, 171 TD, 83 INT, 89.5 rating; 1590 rush yards, 14 TD; 53-33 record (6 years, 86 games/starts)
Jameis Winston (1st, 2015, Tampa Bay)
Career w/team: 1183-of-1922, 14628 yards, 88 TD, 58 INT, 87.8 rating; 794 rush yards, 9 TD; 21-33 record (4 years, 56 games/54 starts)
Jared Goff (1st, 2016, Los Angeles Rams)
Career w/team: 772-of-1243, 9581 yards, 65 TD, 26 INT, 94.7 rating; 175 rush yards, 4 TD; 24-14 record (3 years, 38 games/starts)
Baker Mayfield (1st, 2018, Cleveland)
Career w/team: 310-of-486, 3725 yards, 27 TD, 14 INT, 93.7 rating; 131 rush yards; 6-7 record (1 year, 14 games/13 starts)
Robert Griffin III (2nd, 2012, Washington)
Career w/team: 679-of-1063, 8097 yards, 40 TD, 23 INT, 90.6 rating; 1480 rush yards, 8 TD; 14-21 record (3 years, 37 games/35 starts)
Marcus Mariota (2nd, 2015, Tennessee)
Career w/team: 1015-of-1605, 12004 yards, 69 TD, 42 INT, 89.4 rating; 1270 rush yards, 11 TD; 27-28 record (4 years, 56 games/55 starts)
Carson Wentz (2nd, 2016, Philadelphia)
Career w/team: 923-of-1448, 10152 yards, 70 TD, 28 INT, 92.5 rating; 542 rush yards, 2 TD; 23-17 record (3 years, 40 games/starts)
Mitchell Trubisky (2nd, 2017, Chicago)
Career w/team: 485-of-764, 5416 yards, 31 TD, 19 INT, 87.7 rating; 669 rush yards, 5 TD; 15-11 record (2 years, 26 games/starts)
Blake Bortles (3rd, 2014, Jacksonville)
Career w/team: 1561-of-2632, 17646 yards, 103 TD, 75 INT, 80.6 rating; 1775 rush yards, 8 TD; 24-49 record (5 years, 75 games/73 starts)
Sam Darnold (3rd, 2018, New York Jets)
Career w/team: 239-of-414, 2865 yards, 17 TD, 15 INT, 77.6 rating; 138 rush yards, TD; 4-9 record (1 year, 13 games/starts)
Mark Sanchez (5th, 2009, New York Jets)
Career w/team: 1028-of-1867, 12092 yards, 68 TD, 69 INT, 71.7 rating; 342 rush yards, 12 TD; 33-29 record (4 years, 62 games/starts)
Josh Allen (7th, 2018, Buffalo)
Career w/team: 169-of-320, 2074 yards, 10 TD, 12 INT, 67.9 rating; 631 rush yards, 8 TD; 5-6 record (1 year, 12 games/11 starts)
Jake Locker (8th, 2011, Tennessee)
Career w/team: 408-of-709, 4967 yards, 27 TD, 22 INT, 79.0 rating; 644 rush yards, 5 TD; 9-14 record (4 years, 30 games/23 starts)
Ryan Tannehill (8th, 2012, Miami)
Career w/team: 1829-of-2911, 20434 yards, 123 TD, 75 INT, 87.0 rating; 1210 rush yards, 6 TD; 42-46 record (6 years, 88 games/starts)
Average Season: 276-of-453, 3220 yards, 20 TD, 12 INT, 86.2 rating; 252 rush yards, 2 TD; 6-7 record

Picks 9-16 (6 players, 16 seasons)

Blaine Gabbert (10th, 2011, Jacksonville)
Career w/team: 414-of-777, 4357 yards, 22 TD, 24 INT, 66.4 rating; 186 rush yards; 5-22 record (3 years, 28 games/27 starts)
Patrick Mahomes (10th, 2017, Kansas City)
Career w/team: 405-of-615, 5381 yards, 50 TD, 13 INT, 111.7 rating; 282 rush yards, 2 TD; 13-4 record (2 years, 17 games/starts)
Josh Rosen (10th, 2018, Arizona)
Career w/team: 217-of-393, 2278 yards, 11 TD, 14 INT, 66.7 rating; 138 rush yards; 3-10 record (1 year, 14 games/13 starts)
Deshaun Watson (12th, 2017, Houston)
Career w/team: 471-of-709, 5864 yards, 45 TD, 17 INT, 103.1 rating; 820 rush yards, 7 TD; 14-8 record (2 years, 23 games/22 starts)
Christian Ponder (12th, 2011, Minnesota)
Career w/team: 632-of-1057, 6658 yards, 38 TD, 36 INT, 75.9 rating; 639 rush yards, 7 TD; 14-21-1 record (4 years, 28 games/26 starts)
EJ Manuel (16th, 2013, Buffalo)
Career w/team: 319-of-547, 3502 yards, 19 TD, 15 INT, 77.5 rating; 324 rush yards, 4 TD; 6-11 record (4 years, 28 games/17 starts)
Average Season: 154-of-256, 1753 yards, 12 TD, 7 INT, 85.0 rating; 149 rush yards, TD; 3-5 record

Picks 17-24 (3 players, 9 seasons)

Josh Freeman (17th, 2009, Tampa Bay)
Career w/team: 1144-of-1967, 13534 yards, 80 TD, 66 INT, 78.8 rating; 922 rush yards, 4 TD; 24-35 record (5 years, 60 games/59 starts)
Brandon Weeden (22nd, 2012, Cleveland)
Career w/team: 438-of-784, 5116 yards, 23 TD, 26 INT, 71.8 rating; 155 rush yards; 5-15 record (2 years, 23 games/20 starts)
Johnny Manziel (22nd, 2014, Cleveland)
Career w/team: 147-of-258, 1675 yards, 7 TD, 7 INT, 74.4 rating; 259 rush yards, TD; 2-6 record (2 years, 15 games/8 starts)
Average Season: 192-of-334, 2258 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 76.4 rating; 148 rush yards, 1 TD; 3-6 record

Picks 25-32 (4 players, 8 seasons)

Tim Tebow (25th, 2010, Denver)
Career w/team: 167-of-353, 2383 yards, 17 TD, 9 INT, 75.1 rating; 887 rush yards, 12 TD; 8-6 record (2 years, 23 games/14 starts)
Paxton Lynch (26th, 2016, Denver)
Career w/team: 79-of-128, 792 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT, 76.7 rating; 55 rush yards; 1-3 record (2 years, 5 games/4 starts)
Teddy Bridgewater (32nd, 2014, Minnesota)
Career w/team: 551-of-851, 6150 yards, 28 TD, 22 INT, 86.3 rating; 398 rush yards, 4 TD; 17-11 record (3 years, 30 games/28 starts)
Lamar Jackson (32nd, 2018, Baltimore)
Career w/team: 99-of-170, 1201 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT, 84.5 rating; 695 rush yards, 5 TD; 6-1 record (1 year, 16 games/7 starts)
Average Season: 112-of-188, 1316 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT, 82.2 rating; 254 rush yards, 3 TD; 4-3 record

Top Half Average Season: 253-of-416, 2947 yards, 19 TD, 11 INT, 86.5 rating; 233 rush yards, 2 TD; 5-7 record

Bottom Half Average Season: 154-of-265, 1815 yards, 10 TD, 8 INT, 79.0 rating; 198 rush yards, 2 TD; 3-5 record

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Latest Drew Lock Mock Draft Destinations

6th, New York Giants (CBS)

There haven’t been any quarterbacks taken sixth or by the Giants in the past decade, so we’re flying blind here. We do know, though, that quarterbacks taken in the top quarter of the first round generally are considerably more prolific than the rest of the table. No duh, right? But we’re also seeing that, beyond first and second picks, things get kind of spotty: Bortles, Darnold, Sanchez, Allen, Locker and NFL PECOTA personification Tannehill. Hall of Famers, all of them.

7th, Jacksonville (NFL.com)

Allen was a seventh pick, and his rookie season was a bit up and down. All the other stuff I said earlier as far as draft position still fits for this slot, but the Jaguars have not been kind to their franchise quarterbacks...Lock can give Gabbert a call if he wants to learn a little more about that.

10th, Denver (NFL.com, SI.com)

The Broncos seem to be the leader in the clubhouse, what with everyone talking up how much John Elway is personally interested in Lock. But look at the Broncos’ previous first-round draft picks: Tebow and Lynch. Not spectacular. The 10 spot, too, has been hit or miss, with Mahomes (big hit) and Gabbert...about whom we’ve already spoken.

15th, Washington (CBS)

That whole 9-through-16 quadrant is kind of a crapshoot. Mahomes and Watson have turned out great, Gabbert, Ponder and Manuel not so much, and Rosen had a bunch of hiccups with a bad surrounding cast this season. At least it’s still in the top half, though. Quarterbacks taken in the top half of the draft have outperformed their bottom-half counterparts by about 60 percent in per-season pass yard average.