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What to Make of Drew Lock’s NFL Fortunes Now That He’s a 2nd-Round Pick

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The former Missouri quarterback joins some very hit-and-miss company.

NFL: NFL Draft
Now that Drew Lock is a second-round draft pick, will he turn out to be a Drew Brees or a Christian Hackenberg? Or maybe a happy medium, like a Brock Osweiler?
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Before the NFL Draft, I did a post completely centered around Drew Lock’s possible NFL fortunes based on team and first-round draft position.

Then Lock went ahead and slid to Denver at No. 42 and made the exercise moot. Well, at least even more moot than it already was.

So now let’s revisit and, instead, look at all the quarterbacks who have been taken in the second round of the NFL Draft since 2000.

There have been 20. And they have had wildly diverging fortunes.

For every Drew Brees, there is a Christian Hackenberg. For every Andy Dalton, a Pat White. For every Derek Carr, a Marques Tuiasosopo.

Catch my drift?

Of those 20, and through the 2018 season, here are the percent chances that they have...
Made multiple Pro Bowls: 15.0
Started more than half a season for multiple years: 45.0
Started more than half a season for at least one year: 70.0
Started less than half a season: 20.0
Logged a winning record as a starter: 25.0
Never logged a win as a starter: 30.0
Never started: 5.0
Never played: 5.0

So based, on this small sample size, Lock has a 90 percent chance of ever starting a game at the NFL level and a 70 percent chance of ever being a team’s QB1 for at least 8 games in a regular season.

That’s cool, right?

A little less cool, though? He has less than a 1-in-2 chance of being a multi-year starter and less of a chance of making a Pro Bowl (15.0) than he does of never becoming a team’s QB1 for the majority of a season (20.0). Oh, and he has a better chance of never winning as a starting quarterback (30.0) than he does of netting a winning record as a starter (25.0).

So yes, Brees is definitely an aspirational example for Lock to point toward as he begins his NFL career.

But also remember all the Hackenbergs, Whites, Tuiasosopos, Brian Brohms and John Becks lurking in the weeds.

(Sidenote, now that I’ve brought up White and Beck: the Miami Dolphins picked a quarterback in the second round THREE STRAIGHT YEARS — Beck, Chad Henne and White. That is hilariously bad management.)

Here are all 20, in all their glory:

Pro Bowlers – 3
Derek Carr, Fresno St. (No. 36, Oakland Raiders, 2014)
Career: 1759-of-2800, 18739 yards, 122 TD, 54 INT, 88.8 rating; 413 rush yards, TD (5 years, 78 games/starts; 32-46 record)

Andy Dalton, TCU (No. 35, Cincinnati Bengals, 2011)
Career: 2443-of-3921, 28100 yards, 188 TD, 104 INT, 88.8 rating; 1148 rush yards, 18 TD (8 years, 120 games/starts; 68-50-2 record)

Drew Brees, Purdue (No. 32, San Diego Chargers, 2001)
Career: 6586-of-9783, 744347 yards, 520 TD, 233 INT, 97.7 rating; 758 rush yards, 22 TD (18 years, 264 games/263 starts; 155-108 record)

Multi-Year Starters – 6
Geno Smith, West Virginia (No. 39, New York Jets, 2013)
Career: 523-of-906, 6182 yards, 29 TD, 36 INT, 72.7 rating; 661 rush yards, 7 TD (6 years, 40 games/31 starts; 12-19 record)

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada (No. 36, San Francisco 49ers, 2011)
Career: 1011-of-1692, 12271 yards, 72 TD, 30 INT, 88.9 rating; 2300 rush yards, 13 TD (6 years, 69 games/58 starts; 28-30 record)

Chad Henne, Michigan (No. 57, Miami Dolphins, 2008)
Career: 1161-of-1959, 12960 yards, 58 TD, 63 INT, 75.5 rating; 358 rush yards, 3 TD (10 years, 68 games/53 starts; 18-35 record)

Kellen Clemens, Oregon (No. 49, New York Jets, 2006)
Career: 350-of-638, 4053 yards, 16 TD, 21 INT, 68.9 rating; 227 rush yards, 3 TD (12 years, 64 games/21 starts; 8-13 record)

Tarvaris Jackson, Alabama St. (No. 64, Minnesota Vikings, 2006)
Career: 640-of-1073, 7263 yards, 39 TD, 35 INT, 78.5 rating; 636 rush yards, 6 TD (9 years, 59 games/34 starts; 17-17 record)

Quincy Carter, Georgia (No. 53, Dallas Cowboys, 2001)
Career: 542-of-960, 6337 yards, 32 TD, 37 INT, 71.7 rating; 518 rush yards, 3 TD (4 years, 38 games/34 starts; 18-16 record)

One-Year Starters – 5
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame (No. 52, Cleveland Browns, 2017)
Career: 275-of-518, 3081 yards, 11 TD, 24 INT, 58.9 rating; 458 rush yards, 5 TD (2 years, 18 games/15 starts; 0-15 record)

Brock Osweiler, Arizona St. (No. 57, Denver Broncos, 2012)
Career: 697-of-1165, 7418 yards, 37 TD, 31 INT, 78.0 rating; 266 rush yards, 4 TD (7 years, 49 games/30 starts; 15-15 record)

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame (No. 49, Carolina Panthers, 2010)
Career: 255-of-472, 2520 yards, 7 TD, 14 INT, 61.9 rating; 102 rush yards (4 years, 22 games/14 starts; 1-13 record)

Kevin Kolb, Houston (No. 36, Philadelphia Eagles, 2007)
Career: 449-of-755, 5206 yards, 28 TD, 25 INT, 78.9 rating; 229 rush yards, 2 TD (6 years, 34 games/21 starts; 9-12 record)

Drew Stanton, Michigan (No. 43, Detroit Lions, 2007)
Career: 345-of-659, 4059 yards, 20 TD, 24 INT, 66.3 rating; 220 rush yards, 2 TD (7 years, 38 games/17 starts; 11-6 record)

Spot Starters – 4
Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois (No. 62, New England Patriots, 2014)
Career: 236-of-361, 2968 yards, 17 TD, 8 INT, 97.3 rating; 54 rush yards, TD (5 years, 26 games/10 starts; 8-2 record)

Brian Brohm, Louisville (No. 56 Green Bay Packers, 2008)
Career: 27-of-52, 252 yards, 0 TD, 5 INT; -3 rush yards (2 years, 3 games/starts; 0-2 record)

John Beck, BYU (No. 40, Miami Dolphins, 2007)
Career: 140-of-239, 1417 yards, 3 TD, 7 INT, 67.6 rating; 55 rush yards, 3 TD (2 years, 9 games/7 starts; 0-7 record)

Marques Tuiasosopo, Washington (No. 59, Oakland Raiders, 2001)
Career: 49-of-90, 554 yards, 2 TD, 7 INT; 79 rush yards (6 years, 13 games/2 starts; 0-2 record)

Never Started – 1

Pat White, West Virginia (No. 44, Miami Dolphins, 2009)
Career: 81 rush yards (1 year, 13 games)

Never Played – 1
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State (No. 51, New York Jets, 2016)