Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.
We’re coming off another tough week. Our “worth a look” bets (Mizzou and Mississippi State) both covered the spread, but the best bets finished 1-2. Tennessee dominated, but Ole Miss forgot they had to play football in the first half and Kenucky did *gestures wildly toward box score* whatever that was.
Record ATS by week:
- Week 1: 4-7
- Week 2: 0-2
- Week 3: 3-0
- Week 4: 0-2-1
- Week 5: 1-1
- Week 6: 1-2
- Season Total: 9-14-1 ATS
It’s a short slate, so it will be a more brief look at my best bets. Let’s get to the week seven picks.
WORTH A LOOK:
Vanderbilt (+38.5) @ Georgia - 2:30 pm on SEC Network
- I think there’s a very good chance Georgia covers this spread, but they’ve been leaving some meat on the bone in recent weeks. They beat Kent State by 17, Missouri by four, and they took out their frustrations last week against Auburn. This is the type of game where Kirby Smart could easily take his foot off the gas after the first half after they’re up by five scores, ultimately allowing Vanderbilt an opportunity for the backdoor cover. It’s a huge line, but it’s probably justified when the fifth ranked offense matches up against the 107th ranked defense in SP+. Georgia handles their business, but Vanderbilt covers the spread, 45-10.
Arkansas (+3) @ BYU - 2:30 pm on ESPN
- BYU’s reputation was made on a double overtime victory at home against Baylor. But what if Baylor isn’t the team we expected them to be? The Bears have three wins this season: convincing victories at home against Albany and Texas State, and a one-score win on the road at Iowa State. They lost by double-digits at Oklahoma State. Baylor backed up the win against Baylor with a blowout loss against Oregon, and then lost last week at home against a very mediocre Notre Dame squad. Add it all up, and you have a mediocre team with a solid offense and an okay defense. Arkansas is another tough team to figure out. Their defense was supposed to be good, but they gave up 27 to Missouri State, 49 to Alabama and another 40 last week to Mississippi State. The offense sputtered last week without KJ Jefferson. Will Jefferson be back this week? It seems to be up in the air. I like the Razorbacks in this game either way, both against the spread and straight up. Woo Pig, 37-30.
BK’S BEST BETS:
Alabama @ Tennessee (+7.5) - 2:30 pm on CBS
- Are we sure Alabama is the same team they’ve been in recent years? I’m not. They’re good— very good. But this is going to be a legitimate test. Tennessee is going to be a trendy upset pick. I’m not sure I’m willing to go that far, but I certainly think they can keep this game within a touchdown. The Tide are a different team with Bryce Young at quarterback, and he’s expected back in the lineup on Saturday. That’ll help, but this is still the same team that narrowly avoided the upset on the road at Texas earlier this season. Tennessee has done everything it needed to do in order to convince the skeptics that the Vols are legit. They have three wins over ranked opponents, two of which took place on the road. Hendon Hooker has 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions through the team’s first five games. I’ll take the Vols to cover, but the Tide to pull out a narrow victory, 38-34.
Auburn @ Ole Miss (-15.5) - 11 am on ESPN
- I didn’t think about the fact that Vanderbilt could have been a trap game for Ole Miss. It was the week after a big home game against a top-10 ranked opponent, and before another big matchup against Auburn. The Rebels got off to a sluggish start with three points and two turnovers on their first three drives. They scored a touchdown on seven of their next eight drives and ultimately won by 24 points. Alabama and Georgia are still the two best teams in the SEC, but Ole Miss and Tennessee are right there behind them. Meanwhile, Auburn’s three wins this season came against Mercer, San Jose State and Missouri. They are 44th in SP+, and their offense is basically the equivalent to Missouri’s. It’s going to be tough to score against Ole Miss’ 13th ranked defense. Give me the Rebels, 34-16.
NO STRONG LEAN:
LSU @ Florida (-3) - 6:00 pm on ESPN
Mississippi State (-7) @ Kentucky - 6:30 pm on SEC Network
Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.