Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.
We’re coming off a frustrating week. We identified Tennessee as the “best bet” of the week, but I thought we had a winner in Ole Miss, too. Unfortunately, the Rebels had a brutal finish to the first half and their defense did not live up to expectations against Auburn. They failed to cover despite the 14-point win, so we finished the week 1-1.
Record ATS by week:
- Week 1: 4-7
- Week 2: 0-2
- Week 3: 3-0
- Week 4: 0-2-1
- Week 5: 1-1
- Week 6: 1-2
- Week 7: 1-1
- Season Total: 10-15-1 ATS
Week eight is another short slate with only four SEC lines to choose from, so let’s get right to it.
WORTH A LOOK:
Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+3.5) - 6:30 pm on SEC Network
- If you’re a Mizzou fan, you have basically watched Texas A&M-lite all season. The Aggies almost exclusively play close games, regardless of opponent. They lost to Appalachian State at home by three, beat Arkansas at home by two, and lost to Alabama on the road by four. Sensing a theme here? The only games that went multiple scores in one direction or the other were their home-opener against Sam Houston State (31-0), and their road trip to Mississippi State when the Aggies were playing with their backup quarterback (42-24). I’ve been underestimating South Carolina all season, and I guess it’s about time I stop. The win at Kentucky is enough for me to buy in, especially to their defense. South Carolina not only covers, but wins outright, 20-17.
BK’S BEST BETS:
Ole Miss (+1.5) @ LSU - 2:30 pm on CBS
- I continue to not know what to do with LSU. I don’t think they’re very good. But they’re already 5-2 and have a real chance to finish the year with 9 or 10 victories, depending on what happens in this game. Man, Jayden Daniels sure would look good in a different Tigers uniform, but I digress. If Ole Miss’ defense can slow down the LSU running game, they should be in good shape. Florida’s defense is atrocious, and that result last week told us more about the Gators than it did LSU. I think last week was a situation where Ole Miss was overlooking Auburn toward this showdown. We’ll get the best of Lane Kiffin, and the Rebels win on the road, 27-20.
Vanderbilt (+15) @ Mizzou - 3:00 pm on SEC Network
- Is Vanderbilt good? Nope. But they might be just good enough to cover this spread. The Commodores are coming off a horrific 55-0 shutout between the hedges last week, but the week prior they led Ole Miss at half, and they were reasonably competitive against a legit top-25 opponent in Wake Forest. Vanderbilt’s true freshman quarterback AJ Swann has been very un-freshman-like. He’s only taken five sacks in 141 dropbacks, he’s also yet to throw an interception and he’s only fumbled once in six games. Unfortunately, there’s not much else to write home about for Vanderbilt. The Commodores’ defense has been the worst in the SEC. So this game will be strength on strength (Missouri’s defense against Vanderbilt’s offense) and weakness on weakness (Missouri’s offense vs. Vanderbilt’s defense). If you want to see one specific area which could determine the outcome of the game, it’s finishing drives (again). Missouri struggles to finish its drives that reach the red zone, an area where Vanderbilt has actually been quite successful this season (77 percent TD rate for Vanderbilt vs. 56 percent TD rate for Missouri). I think Missouri wins, but Vanderbilt has a real chance to keep this closer than any of us would like. Mizzou wins, 31-20.
NO STRONG LEAN:
- Mississippi State @ Alabama (-21.5) - 6:00 pm on SEC Network
UT-Martin @ Tennessee - 11 am on SEC Network
Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.