DK’s Bets: SEC Bets Week Nine

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

BK is a smart man and did what most of us want to do when subjected to Eli Drinkwitz’s offense: take a long vacation from watching college football. I will be subbing in for BK’s Bets with a look at some plays around the SEC. I write about college football betting at Action Network and also contribute football thoughts here at Rock M Nation. I was sitting 25-24 ATS on the season until a brutal Week 8 (2-5) dropped me to 27-29.

We have five conference games this week, and four teams out on bye – Alabama, LSU, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. The matchups are a bit ho-hum, especially compared to the two titanic clashes looming in Week Ten. But there is still plenty of intrigue, and let’s take a look at the slate and see if we can find some opportunities to get to the window.

Best Bets:

Arkansas (-4) at Auburn, O/U 60.5 – 11 AM on SEC Network

Auburn is obviously a dumpster fire in the administration and in the football program offices. And while the on-field product is not where the partisans on The Plains believe it could be, it’s far from the mess that exists upstairs. Any Auburn player still playing at this point in the season in the era of the transfer portal is a true believer; we saw their hard-nosed effort in the comeback bid against Ole Miss.

Arkansas had hopes of being a dark horse SEC West contender, but those hopes have been dashed with their own disappointing season. The Razorbacks have a brutal pass defense that could allow Auburn’s weak passing game the extra space it needs.

Most metrics have this closer to a toss-up or even a small Auburn lean, which means the line reflects the public laughingstock that is Auburn more than the actual on-field play. Should I take the points in a game where I can back a home underdog in SEC play? Absolutely.

Missouri at South Carolina (-4.5), O/U 47 – 3 PM on SEC Network

Missouri has quietly built an outstanding defense; well, maybe not quiet to you, dear Rock M reader. The job coordinator Blake Baker has done in turning around that unit has been nothing short of remarkable. In terms of 2022 games against FBS opponents, Missouri’s defense is 17th in the country in a play-based metric (EPA) and 5th in the country in a drive-based metric (Beta_Rank). Fifth! Overall! In the entire country! Please give that man a raise, Mrs. Reed-Francois.

Anyway, Missouri’s defense should have itself a nice day against a struggling South Carolina offense; Spencer Rattler is having an even worse year than the one that got him benched in Norman last year: 63% completion percentage and five touchdowns to eight interceptions. The calls to fire the offensive coordinator in Columbia, SC are louder than the ones to hire one in Columbia, MO. I’ll take the under 47.

Ole Miss (-2.5) at Texas A&M, O/U 55 – 6:30 PM on SEC Network

Another home dog in an SEC game. Like Auburn, the Aggies have a Texas-sized mess on their hands in the boardrooms and back rooms that determine a college football program’s future. But unlike Auburn, this mess has spilled its way into the locker room. More suspensions came down this week in College Station, and this looks like a team limping into the offseason. Ole Miss has one of the best rushing games in the country, and A&M’s excellent defense is more successful defending aerial attacks than it is ground attacks. Lane Kiffin’s outfit still has an SEC title game and a New Year’s Six date to play for, which will be all the motivation they need to rebound from a tough loss. I’ll lay the points with Ole Miss.

No Lean:

Florida vs. Georgia (-22.5), O/U 56.5 – 2:30 PM on CBS

Kentucky at Tennessee (-13), O/U 63.5 – 6 PM on ESPN

Thanks for letting me fill in, BK. Hope my picks play out and I can make you proud. All odds are provided by DraftKings.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.