Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.
We’re coming off a solid week. We went 1-1 in our “best bets,” but the loss came on a game we were thrilled to be wrong about with the Mizzou vs. Georgia line. We were on the right side of things with our lean in the Kentucky game, as well. We’re starting to get a better
Record ATS by week:
- Week 1: 4-7
- Week 2: 0-2
- Week 3: 3-0
- Week 4: 0-2-1
- Week 5: 1-1
- Season Total: 8-12-1 ATS
It’s been a wild ride early in the season. It’s a short slate, so it will be a more brief look at my best bets. Let’s get to the week five picks.
WORTH A LOOK:
Mizzou (+10.5) @ Florida - 11:00 am on ESPNU
- What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? We will find out this weekend when Missouri’s offense takes on Florida’s defense! The Gators’ defense is 71st in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, while the Tigers’ offense is 66th. Florida is a strange team, much like Missouri. Anthony Richardson is a theoretical quarterback. In theory, he has a cannon of an arm and he’s one of the more dynamic runners in the sport. But his results have been mixed, to say the least. He’s completed fewer than 55 percent of his passes, he’s turned the ball over nearly (five interceptions and one fumble) as often as he’s scored (seven total touchdowns). Most of his issues take place when the opposition is able to pressure him. Richardson has completed just 32 percent of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt when pressured. That’s the calling card for this Missouri defense, which has nine sacks, 18 quarterback hits and 39 pressures on the season. This is also a potential revenge game for Missouri’s best defender, Ty’Ron Hopper. I trust the defense to keep the game close, but it’s still a true road game in a difficult environment with a sputtering offense. That keeps this pick out of the “best bets.” I like the Gators to win a close one, 24-16.
Arkansas @ Mississippi State (-4.5) - 11:00 am on SEC Network
- Is anyone paying attention to Mississippi State? The Bulldogs are quietly 4-1 and they dismantled Texas A&M piece-by-piece last week. Arkansas is beaten and bruised coming off of a hard-fought loss at home against Alabama. The difference with this Mike Leach team is the defense. We know his teams can move the ball down the field with the quick passing game, but his defense has more than held its ground, appearing to be a legitimate top 25 unit on that side of the ball. Arkansas’ pass rush should be mitigated somewhat against Leach’s quick-hitting passing game, and I like the Bulldogs to win a one-score game, 30-24.
BK’S BEST BETS:
Tennessee (-4) @ LSU - 11:00 am on ESPN
- I love Tennessee this year. Hendon Hooker has made me look smart (a difficult task) for touting him as a good bet as a long-shot Heisman candidate. I think Vegas is overreacting to LSU’s “turnaround.” The Tigers had a massive day on the ground against Mississippi State, but otherwise have been aided by takeaways in their recent wins. Their defense gave up way too many big plays last week at Auburn to feel confident in that unit against the Vols. LSU is vulnerable when they can’t get their running game going, and their defense relies heavily on crating turnovers. The Vols have allowed the second fewest yards per carry in the SEC this season, and their five giveaways are the second fewest this season in the SEC. I wish the line was three points, but I think Tennessee is the right side of this one. Give me the Vols, 33-27.
Ole Miss (-18) @ Vanderbilt - 3:00 pm on SEC Network
- Ole Miss has a defense, you guys. The Rebels had one heck of a gameplan last week to come up with a massive win at home against Kentucky. Vanderbilt is not as bad as they’ve been in recent years, but they still have a long way to go before they’re competing with the best of the best in the SEC. Vanderbilt’s defense is giving up an average of eight yards per pass attempt on the season. Their opponents have thrown for 13 touchdowns and just one interception, and the big play has been an issue allowing 22 pass plays of 20+ yards. You know Lane Kiffin is licking his chops, thinking of all the ways he can attack this defense over the top. Rebels roll, 41-17.
South Carolina @ Kentucky (-11) - 6:30 pm on SEC Network
- The thing about South Carolina is that they’re not very good. They got molly whopped by Georgia and required three fourth quarter scores for the right to lose by two scores at Arkansas. Their only wins on the season are against Georgia State, Charlotte and South Carolina State. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 with wins against Army, Bethune Cookman and... a head-to-head win by Charlotte against Georgia State. So, yeah. Not great. Spencer Rattler has looked like the guy who got benched at Oklahoma (four touchdowns, seven interceptions), the defense has allowed more than 900 rushing yards through five games and their pass defense allowed more than 500 yards on 51 attempts in their two games against power five opponents. I say all of that to say this: Kentucky is legitimately good. They had every opportunity to win last week on the road at Ole Miss. Their running game came alive with Chris Rodriguez, Jr. back in the lineup. I’m confident in Kentucky winning this at home. I’ll take the Wildcats, 31-16.
NO STRONG LEAN:
Auburn @ Georgia (-28) - 2:30 pm on CBS
Texas A&M @ Alabama (-23.5) - 7:00 pm on CBS
Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.