BK’s Bets: SEC Week 12 Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

I felt like we had a pretty good read on last week’s games. And then Texas A&M gave up 270 rushing yards against Auburn. Note to self, don’t trust Texas A&M. Literally, ever. The only reason that game was as close as it ended up being was the three turnovers by Auburn. We picked the wrong side in that game, but we had the right lean with Tennessee, Georgia and LSU. Alas, we finished with a .500 record yet again.

Record ATS by week:

• Week 1: 4-7
• Week 2: 0-2
• Week 3: 3-0
• Week 4: 0-2-1
• Week 5: 1-1
• Week 6: 1-2
• Week 7: 1-1
• Week 8: 1-1
• Week 10: 1-1
• Week 11: 1-1
• Season Total: 13-18-1 ATS

Last week was a fun slate of SEC games. I can’t tell you the same is true this weekend. If you need to get some errands done, this might be the time to do it. It’s “buy game” week in the conference. Let’s get to the picks.

WORTH A LOOK:

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Georgia @ Kentucky (+23) - 2:30 pm on CBS

• I think this spread is too high. Here’s the problem - I also think Kentucky might be ready to fold the season. The Wildcats lost last week at home against Vanderbilt. They probably should have lost to Missouri the week prior. They have scored more than 21 points just once in SEC play. Their pass protection is a disaster, and they’re about to go up against a swarming defense. Not a great recipe for success! But is Kentucky’s defense enough to keep this close? It’s possible. That would be my bet. I think Georgia wins in convincing fashion, but the Wildcats’ defense keeps it close enough to cover the spread, 34-13.

New Mexico State @ Missouri (-27.5) - 6:30 pm on ESPNU

• New Mexico State has played against two power five opponents this year, losing by a combined score of 104-7. It’s been rough. The Aggies’ offense ranks 129th (out of 131) in SP+, They play two quarterbacks, both of whom are better runners than they are throwers. Neither should do much, if any, damage against the Tigers. Missouri’s defense should have a real chance to outscore NMSU’s offense. This is also the type of game where Missouri’s offense should be able to get things going on the ground again. The Aggies allowed more than 550 rushing yards in two games against P5 opponents. Their passing defense has actually held up relatively well this season, so Eli Drinkwitz has a chance to cater his offensive gameplan to the opponent with Cody Schrader getting a massive workload. Don’t be surprised if we see a good amount of jet sweeps in this game, as well. Tigers get back on track with a 38-10 win.

BK’S BEST BETS:

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Ole Miss (-3) @ Arkansas - 6:30 pm on SEC Network

• Ole Miss has been one of my favorite teams to bet on this year. I think the Rebels have been strangely undervalued for a legitimate top-10 team. I’m guessing this line assumes KJ Jefferson will be back for Arkansas, and the Razorbacks better hope he is because Jefferson’s backups struggled mightily against LSU. Arkansas’ defense also leaves a lot to be desired. Barry Odom’s unit is giving up 8.6 yards per attempt against SEC competition; only Vanderbilt has been worse. The Razorbacks are only marginally better against the run, giving up an average of 4.8 yards per carry against conference foes. Moral of the story: teams can basically move the ball however they would like against Arkansas. I’m going to need someone to explain this line to me. I just don’t get it. It feels like the Rebels should be favored by a touchdown or more. I’ll take Ole Miss, 34-24.

Tennessee (-21.5) @ South Carolina - 6:00 pm on ESPN

• Okay, this one makes a little more sense. My pick here has more to do with motivation than anything else. Tennessee doesn’t just need to win its final two games, it needs to do so in convincing fashion. Style points count, and the Vols are still vying for a spot in the college football playoff. Tennessee reminded all of us what they can do offensively last week when hey put up 66 against Missouri. We could see something similar this week if the Gamecocks aren’t careful. I like the Vols - big - by a final of 48-20.

Western Kentucky (+7.5) @ Auburn - 3:00 pm on SEC Network

• I’m going to give you the SP+ profiles for both of these teams: 61st offensively, 64th defensively, 64th on special teams vs. 32nd offensively, 62nd defensively and 2nd on special teams. Why is the first team (Auburn) favorited in this game? It’s a fair question. Being favored by 7.5 points? That’s wild. For those who haven’t watched Western Kentucky this season, the Hilltoppers are a really solid team. They lost by seven points earlier this season against Troy (56th in SP+) and by three points at UTSA (44th). Here’s the problem: they also laid an egg against North Texas (74th in SP+). For context, Auburn is 69th in SP+. The Tigers are not a very good team, but they do just enough on the ground to keep games close. High-flying passing games have been Auburn kryptonite, and for that reason I wouldn’t be surprised to see Western Kentucky offense give them trouble - so much so that I’ll take WKU to win this game outright. Give me the Hilltoppers, 31-27.

NO STRONG LEAN:

• UMass @ Texas A&M (-34) - 11:00 am on ESPN+
• Florida (-14) @ Vanderbilt - 11:00 am on SEC Network
• UAB @ LSU (-14.5) - 8:00 pm on ESPN2

NO LINE:

• Austin Peay @ Alabama - 11:00 am on ESPN+
• East Tennessee State @ Mississippi State - 11:00 am on ESPN+

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.