BK’s Bets: SEC Week 13 Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

We’re coming off a rough week. Tennessee forgot how to play football, Auburn decided it wants to play for interim head coach Carnell “Cadillac” Williams, and Ole Miss found a way to only score 27 points while putting up more than 700 yards of total offense. Yeah, I don’t get it either. An 0-3 week sums up how the season has gone, in general. Here’s o hoping we finish on a high note.

Record ATS by week:

• Week 1: 4-7
• Week 2: 0-2
• Week 3: 3-0
• Week 4: 0-2-1
• Week 5: 1-1
• Week 6: 1-2
• Week 7: 1-1
• Week 8: 1-1
• Week 10: 1-1
• Week 11: 1-1
• Week 12: 0-3
• Season Total: 13-21-1 ATS

WORTH A LOOK:

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Mississippi State (+3) @ Ole Miss - Thursday - 6:00 pm on ESPN

First of all, the Egg Bowl is consistently among my favorite rivalries to watch. So, for me, that’s reason enough to have some action on this game. If you need more convincing, though, this lean is all about possible lack of motivation for Ole Miss. The Rebels looked like they let their loss against Alabama carry over into Fayetteville last week. Ole Miss’ pass defense is, well, fungible. Will Rogers and the Bulldogs’ quick passing game should be able to have some success. The test will be how Mississippi State’s run defense holds up against Quinshon Judkins. The Rebels’ freshman running back has finished with at least 120 yards from scrimmage in each of his last five games, and he’s run for multiple touchdowns in four of his last six games. He’s a stud. Mississippi State allowed 180 rushing yards against Georgia, 255 against Auburn, 239 against Kentucky and 241 against Arkansas. This should be a shootout, and if Ole Miss is motivated, I think the line is correct. But there’s some reason to believe they won’t be. Give me Ole Miss, 37-34, but I don’t feel great about it.

South Carolina (+13.5) @ Clemson - 11:00 am on ABC

• Motivation should not be a factor in this game. Clemson (somehow) has a real chance to make the College Football Playoff. South Carolina is 7-4 (how?!) and they have a chance to finish the season on a serious high note with back-to-back wins against top-10 opponents. This is really a bet against Clemson more than it is a bet in favor of South Carolina. The Tigers have played five teams this season with a similar profile to South Carolina: Wake Forest, NC State, Florida State, Notre Dame and Louisville. Those games have been decided by six, 10, six, six, -21 and 15 points. If Spencer Rattler was more consistent, this would be one of my favorite bets of the week. Unfortunately, he can go from looking like a sure-fire future top-10 pick to looking like a player on the verge of getting benched in a moment’s notice. That’s enough to keep me off of this game, but if I were to bet it, I definitely prefer the South Carolina side. I’ll take Clemson to win in a close one, 27-17.

BK’S BEST BETS:

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Louisville (+4) @ Kenucky - 2:00 pm on SEC Network

• What if I told you Louisville is a better football team than Kentucky and this line is a farce? Because that’s how I feel, and SP+ rankings agree. Bill Connelly’s rankings have Kentucky 36th (93rd offensively, 8th defensively) and Louisville 31st (61st offensively, 30th defensively). Kentucky’s resume was primarily built on their week two victory against Florida. At the time, we thought Florida was good because they beat Utah. We now know that game was a fluke. Florida is average, at best, and Kentucky has won just three games since. The defense is still quite good, but the offense just can’t get out of its own way. Will Levis doesn’t look right, and the offensive line is an absolute disaster. The question in this game is how Louisville’s offense will perform if the Cardinals are without Malik Cunningham again. Backup Brock Domann has mostly been fine in spot action this season, but he doesn’t create with his legs the way Cunningham does. I like Louisville not only to cover, but to win outright, 17-13.

LSU (-10) @ Texas A&M - 6:00 pm on ESPN

• It’s certainly possible LSU comes out flat and they look ahead to the SEC Championship. I’ve considered that possibility. But the Tigers are still very much in the running for the College Football Playoff, and that hope would be eliminated if they fail to take care of business against A&M. A letdown in this spot shouldn’t be in play. Plus, a letdown would require Texas A&M’s offense to do... something. That has not happened, really, all season. A&M has one of the most limited passing games in the country. The Aggies have stared three quarterbacks, none of which have been particularly good. Their running game leaves something to be desired. Their team is simply not very good, and they’re playing out the string. A couple big runs by Jayden Daniels should be more than enough to put his away. LSU wins, convincingly, 27-10.

NO STRONG LEAN:

• Arkansas (-6) @ Missouri - Friday - 2:30 pm on CBS
• Florida @ Florida State (-9) - Friday - 6:30 pm on ABC
• Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-35) - 11:00 am on ESPN
• Tennessee (-17) @ Vanderbilt - 6:30 pm on SEC Network

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.