BK’s Bets: SEC Week 11 Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

Another up-and-down week for us on he picks. Tennessee had every opportunity for a backdoor cover, but the Vols simply couldn’t get the job done. Thankfully for us, we got a comfortable victory with South Carolina on the road at Vanderbilt.

Record ATS by week:

• Week 1: 4-7
• Week 2: 0-2
• Week 3: 3-0
• Week 4: 0-2-1
• Week 5: 1-1
• Week 6: 1-2
• Week 7: 1-1
• Week 8: 1-1
• Week 10: 1-1
• Season Total: 12-17-1 ATS

Last week gave us a couple heavyweight matchups in the SEC. This week gives us one, but it also gives us a few opportunities for teams that might be a bit over/underrated.

Let’s get to the picks.

WORTH A LOOK:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Missouri @ Tennessee (-21) - 11:00 am on CBS

• I’ve been high on Tennessee all year, and that’s not going to stop now despite their performance last week between the hedges. They couldn’t have played a worse game, and they still nearly covered the spread. If Missouri stays in this game, it’s because Blake Baker watched Georgia’s blitz packages a week ago and puts together one heck of a gameplan to frustrate Hendon Hooker. I think we could see some of that, and I don’t know if it will be enough. That Vols offense is an absolute machine, and the Tigers will struggle to keep up. Give me the Vols, 42-20.

Georgia (-16.5) @ Mississippi State - 6:00 pm on ESPN

• Georgia reminded all of us (myself included) that you have to beat the best before you can be the best. And, well, the Dawgs remain the best. I don’t think this offense is at the same level as it’s been in recent years, but it’s still probably among the 10-15 best in the country and their defense is the best in the country. Mississippi State is the exact kind of team I’ve struggled to get a grip on this season. The Bulldogs are... fine? Pretty good? Their offense has been a reflection of the opponents they’ve faced. They put up 49 points against Memphis (104th in defensive SP+ rankings), 39 against Arizona (121st), 45 against Bowling Green (115th), 40 against Arkansas (67th) and 39 against Auburn (65th), but they were held to 16 points against LSU (24th) and just six points against Alabama (9th). Their outlier performance this season came in a 42-point performance against Texas A&M bolstered by four A&M turnovers. That’s not going to happen against Georgia. Georgia wins in a game that looks a whole lot like the Tennessee game, 30-10.

BK’S BEST BETS:

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Texas A&M (-2) @ Auburn - 6:30 pm on SEC Network

• Missouri and Texas A&M are basically the Spiderman meme. Grind-it-out offense, solid defense and a record that should probably be better than it is. That said, this is what happens when a team plays a whole bunch of one-score games over the course of the season. Texas A&M is 2-4 in games decided by one score this season. Missouri is 1-4. See what I’m saying about the Spiderman meme thing? This is the week A&M gets back on track. Auburn had its “fired coach bump” last week against Mississippi State, but prior to that game they finished with a 0, 8, 0, 8, 0 chance of winning in five of its last six games, according to SP+. Both teams should be able to run the ball with ease; these are the two worst teams in the SEC on a per-carry basis. Auburn has allowed a mind-blowing 24 touchdowns on he ground this season, and Jimbo Fisher would love nothing more than to ride running back Devon Achane to a victory. Aggies finally get on the right side of a one score game, 27-20.

LSU (-2.5) @ Arkansas - 11:00 am on ESPN

• At some point I’m going to have to admit that I’m simply wrong about LSU. They are a better team than I believed they would be coming into he year. I was shorting both of these teams coming into the season, and now is my time to buy back some stock on LSU. The Tigers were legitimately the better team last week against Alabama. What we’ve seen from hem recently is not a fluke. Jayden Daniels is back to his 2019 form (but better?), the defense is more than fine and - despite being incredibly unlikable - Brian Kelly is one heck of a college football coach. Arkansas’ offense remains quite good with KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders, but the defense is a major liability. Daniels should have his way offensively, and I like the Tigers to remain atop the SEC West standings with a 34-24 win in Fayetteville.

NO STRONG LEAN:

• Alabama (-10.5) @ Ole Miss - 2:30 pm on CBS
• Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (-17.5) - 11 am on SEC Network
• South Carolina @ Florida (-7.5) - 3:00 pm on SEC Network

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.