Eli and the Halftime Deficit: An Investigation

Our friend Mike Bratton tweeted out an interesting stat the other day:

Keep in mind, while Drink hasn’t been a head coach for that long, he did come to Missouri with a sterling 12-1 record as the one-year steward of an awesome Appalachian State team; the one loss, of course, came when the Mountaineers were down 10-7 at half to Georgia Southern and went on to lose 24-21.

But we don’t care about the Mountaineers! We care about Mizzou! So removing his App State record means that Drink is 8-1 when his team is winning at halftime and 1-10 when his team is losing at halftime.

Hey...let’s look at those losses, shall we? I want to know what the final score was, what the halftime score was, the types of plays called per half, and the success rates of those plays. Ready for a walk through of sadness? Here we go!

tidesports.com

September 26th, 2020: Missouri 19 - #2 Alabama 38

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 3 - Alabama 28

1st Half Play Calls: 18 passes, 18 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 33.3% passing, 33.3% running, 33.3% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 24 passes, 13 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 50.0% passing, 53.8% running, 51.4% total

rocktoptalk.com

October 3rd, 2020: Missouri 12 - Tennessee 35

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 6 - Tennessee 21

1st Half Play Calls: 13 passes, 18 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 23.1% passing, 38.9% running, 32.3% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 13 passes, 18 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 53.8% passing, 27.8% running, 38.7% total

Associated Press

October 31st, 2020: Missouri 17 - #10 Florida 41

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Halftime Score: Missouri 7 - Florida 20

1st Half Play Calls: 20 passes, 13 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 25.0% passing, 30.8% running, 27.3% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 23 passes, 7 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 43.5% passing, 28.6% running, 40.0% total

Columbia Daily Tribune

December 12th, 2020: Missouri 14 - #9 Georgia 49

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 14 - Georgia 21

1st Half Play Calls: 19 passes, 13 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 42.1% passing, 46.2% running, 43.8% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 14 passes, 8 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 35.7% passing, 12.5% running, 27.3%

Columbia Daily Tribune

December 19th, 2020: Missouri 32 - Mississippi State 51

Location: Davis Wade Stadium

Halftime Score: Missouri 10 - Mississippi State 27

1st Half Play Calls: 19 passes, 20 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 42.1% passing, 35.0% running, 38.5% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 21 passes, 9 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 52.4% passing, 44.4% running, 50.0% total

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

September 11th, 2021: Missouri 28 - Kentucky 35

Location: Kroger Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 14 - Kentucky 21

1st Half Play Calls: 25 passes, 9 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 48.0% passing, 77.8% running, 55.9% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 28 passes, 14 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 46.4% passing, 50.0% running, 47.6% total

Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images

October 2nd, 2021: Missouri 24 - Tennessee 62

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 10 - Tennessee 45

1st Half Play Calls: 23 passes, 22 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 39.1% passing, 36.4% running, 37.8% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 21 passes, 7 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 52.4% passing, 71.4% running, 57.1% total

Columbia Daily Tribune

October 16th, 2021: Missouri 14 - #21 Texas A&M 35

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 7 - Texas A&M 28

1st Half Play Calls: 21 passes, 15 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 33.3% passing, 26.7% running, 30.6% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 23 passes, 13 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 30.4% passing, 46.2% running, 36.1% total

November 6th, 2021: Missouri 6 - #1 Georgia 43

Location: Sanford Stadium

Halftime Score: Missouri 3 - Georgia 26

1st Half Play Calls: 11 passes, 15 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 18.2% passing, 33.3% running, 26.9% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 23 passes, 17 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 26.1% passing, 35.3% running, 30.0% total

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

November 26th, 2021: Missouri 17 - #25 Arkansas 34

Location: Razorback Stadium

Halftime Score: Missouri 6 - Arkansas 10

1st Half Play Calls: 14 passes, 26 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 21.4% passing, 38.5% running, 32.5% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 12 passes, 23 runs

2nd Half Success Rate: 16.7% passing, 43.5% running, 34.3% total

Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

...and here’s the one game Drink won while being down at halftime:

December 5th, 2020: Missouri 50 - Arkansas 48

Location: Faurot Field

Halftime Score: Missouri 20 - Arkansas 27

1st Half Play Calls: 24 passes, 20 runs

1st Half Success Rate: 50.0% passing, 50.0% running, 50.0% total

2nd Half Play Calls: 26 passes, 17 runs

2nd Success Rate: 53.8% passing, 47.1% running, 51.2% total

So what does it all mean?

Ok, so a few notes on these losses:

• 5 of these losses happened in 2020, 5 happened in 2021, and the win came in 2020.
• 6 of those losses were at home, 5 were on the road
• 6 of the losses came to teams that were ranked at the time; 6 of those teams went on to be ranked at the end of the year as well.
• Average halftime score of these losses: Missouri 8 - Opponent 30.9
• Average final score of these losses: Missouri 18.3 - Opponent 42.3
• Success rates are a good indicator of how close the loss is going to be in this circumstance. If passing success is under 40% then the game isn’t close. Drinkwitz’s offense tends to have good grounds games regardless so that jibes; if you can’t do anything but jab your opponent is going to figure it out.
• As far as SP+ sees these teams, Missouri lost to the #1, #50, #6, #5, and #58 teams in 2020 (the Tigers were ranked 68th), and the #23, #10, #6, #1, and #22 teams of 2021 (Mizzou was 69th)

So there’s your silver lining; as far the halftime losses go, they tend to be against Top 25 teams in SP+ rankings. The Tennessee (#50) loss of 2020 was with Shawn Robinson still at quarterback, and the Mississippi State (#58) loss was at the end of the year when Mizzou had their entire defense hollowed out by COVID. Not great, but explainable.

There’s an old adage - attributed to a bunch of different coaches, as these things tend to be - that, when you’re rebuilding a football program, you go through four phases:

• Lose big
• Lose close
• Win close
• Win big

It’s overly simplistic but the concept makes sense. If you strip the house down to the studs and start all over then you’re going to take a lot of lumps as the new pieces learn how to work together. Over time those pieces grow and improve and start operating as a team. Then you pull out some close wins you used to not get, and then you start beating lesser programs regularly. Big losses are going to happen in the SEC regardless of how good you are as there are just too many damn good teams with way more talented rosters. But Missouri at least managed to be a little closer in the point margins at the end of the game in ‘21 than they did in ‘20.

There’s probably not much we can learn from this exercise but it is something interesting to note as Drinkwitz heads into his third season.