BK’s Bets: 2022 SEC Win Totals

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

College football technically opens this week, but the vast majority of the SEC (looking at you, Vanderbilt) is off until next week. So we’re going to take this opportunity to take a 10,000 foot view of things, including a look at some of our favorite SEC win totals and props leading into the 2022 college football season.

Staring next week, we’ll be taking a deeper look at where the value lies on individual game lines and totals.

Win Totals: Take the Over

Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

• Ole Miss: O/U 7.5
• Tennessee: O/U 7.5
• Mississippi Sate: O/U 6.5
• Auburn: O/U 6.5
• Missouri: O/U 5.5

Here’s a totally random list of teams: Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU. Okay, maybe it’s not random. That’s seven teams on Ole Miss’ schedule. The Rebels are replacing Matt Corral at quarterback, but the team has plenty of returning production and a number of high level transfers who should be able to come in and make an immediate impact. If there’s one win total bet I like this season, it’s Ole Miss’s over.

The others I’m most confident in are, surprisingly, Missouri over 5.5 and Mississippi State over 6.5. The Missouri number just seems, well, wrong. I think the total should be set at six. There’s just too much value on the over when Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian, Vanderbilt and New Mexico State are on the schedule. Can the Tigers win two other games? I think so, yes. Mississippi State also seems strangely disrespected. Did you know three of their five losses last season were by one score? The Bulldogs were ranked among the top 35 in both offensive and defensive SP+, and they return 78 percent of their production from a year ago.

The other two teams on this list - Tennessee and Auburn - are a crap shoot. Heck, most win totals are. Both teams have the talent and returning production to have surprisingly good seasons. And both have the history of disappointing relative to expectations. This is the first year in a long time I’m buying the Vols hype. We’ll see if it comes back to bite me. I’m more hesitant on Auburn. God only knows what that team will look like midway through the season.

Win Totals: Take the Under

Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

• Texas A&M: O/U 8.5
• LSU: O/U 7
• Vanderbilt: O/U 2.5
• Arkansas: O/U 7.5

Texas A&M is an annual member of my “buy low, sell high” list. They always seem to disappoint early and turn it on late. The Aggies were a tremendous defensive team last year, but that tends to be less “sticky” year-to-year. And is Haynes King ready to take over as the starting quarterback? It sounds like we’re about to find out.

My favorite “under” on this list, though, is Arkansas. Sure, KJ Jefferson is back, but what does he look like without Treylon Burks to throw to? The returning production is in the bottom half of he SEC, and the schedule is not easy. Losses against Cincinnati, Texas A&M, Alabama, at BYU and Ole Miss hits the under.

LSU being on this list is a bet that there could be some growing pains in Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge, and Vanderbilt is, well, they’re not very good. The line feels close enough to being right on both teams, but I would lean more toward the under.

Win Totals: Stay Away

• Alabama: O/U 10.5
• Georgia: O/U 10.5
• Kentucky: O/U 8
• Florida: O/U 7
• South Carolina: O/U 6

There’s just no value on betting the “over” for Alabama or Georgia. Could either team win 12 games? Of course. This is far from Alabama’s toughest schedule in recent years and Georgia’s toughest test might legitimately come in week one against Oregon. That said, there’s always a health risk and the odds of any team winning 11 games going into the season simply isn’t worth the bet.

As for Kentucky, Florida and South Carolina, the lines just feel correct. There are legitimate questions about Kentucky’s offense with a new offensive coordinator and (possibly?) without Chris Rodriguez Jr. Nobody in the SEC returns less production than Florida... but that might be a good thing? Their season will be dictated by the upside of Anthony Richardson. If he gets going, watch out. I think Billy Napier will get things going in Gainesville, but it’ll take longer than one year to get back to SEC contention. Meanwhile, South Carolina is relying heavily on Spencer Rattler. He was the Heisman favorite this time last year. He could impress. Or, maybe more likely, we realize quickly that hype was more about Lincoln Riley and Oklahoma than it was Rattler.

Odds to win the SEC:

• Alabama (-145)
• Georgia (+155)
• Texas A&M (18-1)
• Florida (45-1)
• Ole Miss & Tennessee (50-1)
• Kentucky (55-1)
• Arkansas (60-1)
• LSU (70-1)
• Mississippi Sate (120-1)
• South Carolina & Auburn (150-1)
• Missouri (300-1)
• Vanderbilt (1,000-1)

Let’s be honest, the odds are the way they are for a reason. Alabama and Georgia are overwhelming favorites to win the conference. They’re arguably the two best teams in the country. But there is no value in betting on them to win the conference, so go ahead and take your favorite out of the mid-range and throw the dart.

For me, that team is Tennessee. Hendon Hooker accounted for 40 combined touchdowns through the air and on the ground, and might legitimately compete for the Heisman this season if he improves upon those numbers. They return last season’s starting running back and their most productive receiver. They return nearly 80 percent of last year’s production from a team whose only losses a year ago were against Pittsburgh (first round quarterback), Florida (huh?), Ole Miss (top 100 quarterback), Alabama and Georgia. Take care of business out of the conference, get lucky and upset one of Alabama or Georgia and Tennessee has a shot. That’s how you try to convince yourself of a 50-to-1 odds bet.

Those are my picks. What are you going with? Leave your picks in the comments below!

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.