BK’s Bets: SEC Week 3 Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

We’re definitely riding the struggle bus to open up the 2022 season. Our “best bets” are 4-9 to start the year, including an 0-2 stretch last week. For what it’s worth, our “worth a look” bets had a strong 3-0 showing, but those don’t mean a whole lot if I’m not willing to put my name on them.

We look to get off the schneid this week, but I warn you this among the worst slates of the season.

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WORTH A LOOK:

Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Penn State (-3) @ Auburn - 2:30 on CBS

• Is Auburn good? Is Penn State good? These are both very reasonable questions. Penn State nearly allowed Purdue to come back to beat them in their season-opener. Auburn struggled to put away a pretty bad San Jose State team last week. Auburn has some serious questions at quarterback and I’m still not convinced that team has any interest in playing for their head coach, Bryan Harsin. A loss this week could be the start of a serious slide, with an October slate that includes dates against LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss and Arkansas. This feels like a game between two teams heading in opposite directions. Give me Penn State 23, Auburn 16.

USF @ Florida (-24.5) - 6:30 on SEC Network

• I’m still scratching my head about what happened last week to Florida, but in particular to Anthony Richardson. He looked outstanding against Utah in the season-opener, and then, suddenly, everything went to crap against Kentucky. I don’t mean to take anything away from Mark Stoops’ defense, but Richardson is supposed to have borderline defense-proof talent. He was anything but last week. He finished with a QBR, according to ESPN, of 3.8. That came after a QBR in week one of 94.6. You won’t find a bigger gap from any quarterback in the country than those two games. Don’t research that. I’m sure it’s true. What does that mean against USF? Not much. At least, it shouldn’t. USF gave up 50 to BYU, and played an FCS team last week in Howard. Florida should win this game by at least 25. Will they? Your guess is as good as mine.

Miami (+5.5) @ Texas A&M - 8:00 on ESPN

• The thing about Texas A&M is they exclusively play close, weird football games. They played one score games last season against Colorado, Mississippi State, Alabama and LSU. They also had games decided by 10 points or less against Arkansas and Ole Miss. The trend continued last week against Appalachian State, losing by three points at home. This should be another game decided in that range. Texas A&M’s best path to victory includes getting pressure on Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and to shut down Ole Miss transfer running back Henry Parrish on the ground in a way they could not do last week against App State. They’re also going to need Hayes King to step up his game in a big, big way. I don’t trust A&M after last week’s disaster, but I do think they should be the better team. I’ll take Texas A&M to win, but Miami to cover, 20-16 Aggies.

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BK’S BEST BETS:

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Ole Miss (-16) @ Georgia Tech - 2:30 pm on ABC

• I’m not sure if Ole Miss has much of a passing game. I’m also not sure how much it matters, because neither does Clemson and the Tigers put Georgia Tech away 41-10 in week one with a dominant defensive performance, and and just enough offense. Ole Miss doesn’t have the defense Clemson does, but the Rebels’ ground game should be able to get the job done. Give me Ole Miss 31, Georgia Tech 13

Georgia (-24.5) @ South Carolina - 11 am on ESPN

• Two games into the season, the Georgia Bulldogs have allowed a combined three points against Oregon and Samford. South Carolina ranks 61st in SP+, according to Bill Connelly. The Gamecocks put up 30 points last week against Arkansas, but that was mostly driven by a few explosive plays through the air. Spencer Rattler is just 9-for-24 for 146 yards this season when pressured. That’s problematic, considering Georgia’s defense has already produced 16 pressures and seven quarterback hits through their first two games. I think Georgia pulls away early and their defense scores late, giving them plenty to cover the seemingly bloated spread. I’ll take Georgia 41, South Carolina 13.

Akron @ Tennessee (-48.5) - 6:00 pm on ESPN+

• This one is pretty simple. Josh Heupel’s offense puts up crazy numbers against lesser opponents. Akron ranks among the bottom five teams in the FBS in both offensive and defensive SP+. Michigan State beat the Zips 52-0 last week. Tennessee has a more explosive offense than Michigan State. Give me the Vols minus the points, 62-10.

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NO STRONG LEAN:

Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports

UL Monroe @ Alabama (-49) - 3:00 pm on SEC Network

Mississippi State (-2) @ LSU - 5:00 pm on ESPN

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NO LINES:

Madeline Carter/Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK

Abilene Christian @ Missouri - 11 am on ESPN+

Youngstown State @ Kentucky - 11 am on SEC Network

Missouri Sate @ Arkansas - 6:00 pm on ESPN+

Those are my picks for the week. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.