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BK’s Bets: SEC Week 4 Bets

Who are you taking in week four against the spread?

Syndication: The Montgomery Advertiser Jake Crandall / USA TODAY NETWORK

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

It was a much better week for us last week. Ole Miss took care of business, Georgia dominated as expected, and Tennessee’s offense followed the Heupel tradition of dominating against inferior competition. We needed the big week, because the first two weeks started out, well, slowly.

Record ATS by week:

  • Week 1: 4-7
  • Week 2: 0-2
  • Week 3: 3-0
  • Season Total: 7-9 ATS

We’ll look to continue our winning ways this week with three more “best bets,” but one of them probably won’t go over well around these parts.


WORTH A LOOK:

NCAA Football: Kent State at Washington Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Kent State (+42.5) @ Georgia - 11:00 am on ESPN+

  • What do you get when the best defense and a top five offense step on the field against a bottom 10 defense and bottom 20 team nationally? A spread of greater than 40 points! And it’s fully deserved. Georgia should be able to name its score in this game, much as it did in the first three weeks of the season. The Bulldogs are one of three teams nationally to allow just one touchdown on the season, along with Iowa and Ole Miss. That defense could finish this game by scoring more points than it allows. The only concern I have about the Georgia side of things is when Kirby Smart will call off the dogs, no pun intended. The Bulldogs pulled their starters before the start of the fourth quarter in each of their first three games. They did so in the third quarter up 42-3 against Oregon, at half up 30-0 against Samford and midway through the third up 38-0 agains South Carolina. If that pattern holds true, a 42.5 point spread simply might be too much to ask for. I love Georgia. They’ll win big. But this is a bet against the starters playing deep into the game more than anything else. Georgia wins, 42-6, but the Golden Flashes cover.

New Mexico @ LSU (-30) - 6:30 pm on ESPN+

  • What if that weird Florida State game threw us off the scent of this LSU team? I’m not saying they’re good. But maybe they’re solid? Their comfortable win against Mississippi State came as a bit of a surprise. Jayden Daniels did his thing on the ground, but it was the defensive performance that stood out. LSU held the Bulldogs to a 3-for-14 day on third down. Will Rogers couldn’t get much going through the air, and the Tigers’ defense kept everything in front of them, getting the job done against Mike Leach’s quick-hitting passing game. New Mexico’s offense should not present much of a challenge for this LSU defense, and their defense has been heavily reliant on turnovers, causing 10 turnovers in their first three games of the season. Jayden Daniels is far from a perfect quarterback, but he’s yet to throw an interception this season. Look for Daniels and LSU’s offense to keep the ball on the ground, playing keep-away from New Mexico, and winning this one 41-10.

BK’S BEST BETS:

NCAA Football: San Jose State at Auburn John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Missouri @ Auburn (-6.5) - 11:00 am on ESPN

  • If we have to watch our team lose, then we might as well make money in doing so. I don’t take any joy in this prediction. But I have to follow my head, not my heart. Guys, Missouri just isn’t very good. To be fair, neither is Auburn. But they’re better than Missouri. The Auburn offense has a really hard time moving the football. T.J. Finley will make a throw that reminds you why he was a top 20 quarterback in the 2020 class with offers from every meaningful program in the country, and then he’ll make three more that make you question why he’s a power five starter. Auburn has scored a combined 36 points over the past two weeks at home against San Jose State and a Penn State defense that gave up 31 in week one against Purdue. Moral of the story, the “other” Tigers are not some juggernaut. Unfortunately, this game is going to be played on the road where the Tigers are 2-8 under Eli Drinkwitz. Those two wins came against: A) Vanderbilt last season (who won two games last season, against Colorado State & Connecticut) and B) South Carolina in 2020, in front of a reduced crowd against a team with an interim coach playing out the string. In other words, Missouri has been outscored in true road games under Eli Drinkwitz by a combined score of 358-212 (-146 point differential). I can’t, in good faith, pick that team with this offense on the road against a power five opponent. Auburn wins, 34-20.

Arkansas (+2) @ Texas A&M - 6:00 pm on ESPN

  • I know, I know. I can already hear the rebuttals. “But, BK,” you’re saying. “Arkansas struggled last week to beat Missouri State last week! And Texas A&M just beat Miami!” I hear you. It’s a fair rebuttal. But both of those scores mean very little to me, for different reasons. Arkansas turned over the football three times, one of which was literally at the goal line. They out-gained Missouri State 597-409. The pass defense can use some work, no doubt, but that’s not an area Texas A&M is particularly adept at exploiting. I have some real questions about Arkansas, but I have more questions about the Aggies. Texas A&M’s win against Miami was a mirage. They were out-gained 392-264. They were buoyed by a muffed punt by Miami right outside of the red zone and a coach obsessed with kicking field goals. The Hurricanes kicked field goals from the Texas A&M 4, 10, 16 and 18-yard line. Texas A&M’s playing style is much like Virginia’s in college hoops. It invites close games, and allows potentially inferior opponents to outlast them. Arkansas goes into College Station and pulls off the slight upset, 20-16.

Florida @ Tennessee (-9) - 2:30 pm on CBS

  • I don’t think Vegas is picking up on Tennessee the way it should. The Vols, in my opinion, are clearly the second best team in the SEC East and are in the mix to be a top 10 team in the country. They have a quality win on the road at Pittsburgh, and they have completely blown out the two non-con opponents on their schedule. Hendon Hooker has more touchdown passes on the season (six) than he does interceptions and sacks combined (five). The defense certainly has some holes, but I’m not sure this Florida team has the offense to take advantage. The Gators looked great on opening weekend against Utah, but have fallen flat each of the two weeks since. Anthony Richardson, once viewed as a potential Heisman candidate, has now thrown four interceptions before throwing his first touchdown. It’s not what you want. Give me the Vols at home, big, 42-24.

NO STRONG LEAN:

Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (-29) - 11:00 am on SEC Network

Tulsa @ Ole Miss (-19.5) - 3:00 pm on SEC Network

Northern Illinois @ Kentucky (-25) - 6:00 pm on ESPN2

Vanderbilt @ Alabama (-40.5) - 6:30 pm on SEC Network

Charlotte @ South Carolina (-23) - 6:30 pm on ESPNU


Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.