BK’s Bets: Week 12’s Best Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

We’re coming off a couple successful weeks with our picks. Our “worth a look” picks are a combined 3-1 over the past couple weeks, and we hit on both of our ‘best bets.’ We leaned heavily on two big favorites with Alabama and Georgia securing their respective rights to play in the SEC title game. Our big call of the week, though, was Auburn traveling to Arkansas to take down a horrid Arkansas team. That turned out pretty well with the Tigers taking care of business.

This is a very different slate. It’s (more or less) a bye week for roughly half the league. There are only three intra-conference games, and none of the non-conference games feature a power five opponent. It’s not an easy week to navigate. Let’s see what we can come up with.

WORTH A LOOK:

Kylie Graham-USA TODAY Sports

Florida @ Missouri (-12) — 6:30 pm on ESPN

• Florida is just not very good, you guys. Graham Mertz has probably been better than I’ve given him credit, but the team simply hasn’t come together. The defense has struggled to get stops against even the average opponents on the Gators’ schedule, and the Florida offense doesn’t produce many explosive plays. Florida has played three defenses this season that compare to Mizzou’s — Utah, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Gators averaged 15 points and roughly 350 yards per game in those three games. The one outlier performance came against Tennessee when the Vols forgot how to stop the run. Florida is technically playing for the ability to reach a bowl. Missouri is playing for an opportunity to participate in a New Year’s Six bowl. One of those incentives is a little different than the other. Give me the Tigers, 34-20.

New Mexico State (+13.5) @ Auburn — 3:00 pm on SEC Network

• New Mexico State is roughly the equivalent of Cal and Mississippi State. Auburn beat those teams 14-10 and 27-13, respectively. I expect this game to be similarly (and surprisingly) close. The Aggies are a run first, second and third team. Missouri saw some of that from them a year ago when they traveled to Columbia. This is a much better version of the same team. I don’t think New Mexico State pulls off the upset, but I think this game ends up being lower scoring than expected with both teams doing their damndest to establish the hell out of the run. Auburn wins, snug, 24-13.

BK’S BEST BET:

Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

Georgia (-10.5) @ Tennessee — 2:30 pm on CBS

• I’ve been saying for weeks that Tennessee is Georgia lite. The difference between the two, of course, is that Georgia is Tennessee’s running game and defense with the added benefit of believing in a well-rounded passing game. That is, well, not something that I believe Tennessee is capable of. That’s a problem against this Georgia defense. I’m just not sure how Tennessee will be able to move the ball consistently. Georgia is on a warpath to the CFP (again). The Bulldogs will prove once again they’re one of the three best teams in the country with a convincing victory, this time on the road, 37-20.

NO STRONG LEAN:

UL Monroe @ Ole Miss (-37) — 11:00 am on ESPN+

Southern Miss @ Mississippi State (-14) — 11:00 am on ESPN+

Florida International @ Arkansas (-29.5) — 6:30 pm on ESPNU

Kentucky (-2) @ South Carolina — 6:30 pm on SEC Network

Georgia State @ LSU (-31) — 7:00 pm on ESPN2

NO LINE AVAILABLE:

Chattanooga @ Alabama — 11:00 am on ESPN+

Abilene Christian @ Texas A&M — 11:00 am on ESPN+

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.