Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.
We are finally hitting our stride as this season comes to an end. Our “worth a look” bets are now 4-2 over the past few weeks. We hit on our ‘best bet’ three weeks running. Better late than never, I suppose. This is a fun slate in the SEC with multiple games worthy of consideration. Let’s get right to it, shall we?
WORTH A LOOK:
Mizzou (-7) @ Arkansas — Friday at 3:00 pm on CBS
- One of these teams is 15th in offense in the SP+ rankings, and 32nd on defense. The other is 51st in offense and 62nd on defense. You would be hard-pressed to find something this Arkansas team does at a high level. The Razorbacks are 10th in the SEC allowing 30 points per game in SEC play. They rank in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed per carry (4.9), pass yards allowed per attempt (8.2), yards per play (6.2), tackles for loss per game (4.8) and third down conversion rate against (44%) in conference play. In fact, the only significant defensive stats in which Arkansas ranks in the top half of the league in conference play are pass plays of 20+ yards allowed (3rd — 20) and red zone touchdown rate (7th — 57.7%). On offense, the Razorbacks... are just as bad. They average fewer yards per play on the season than any team in the conference; yes, including Vanderbilt. A big issue for Arkansas is allowing sacks and tackles for loss. Seems problematic going up against a Blake Baker-coached defense. On top of all of that, the Razorbacks have next to nothing to play for and they just ruled out their top two running backs for this game. I see no reason why Missouri shouldn’t pull away in this one. Give me the Tigers on the road, 34-20.
Ole Miss (-10.5) @ Mississippi State — Thursday at 6:30 pm on ESPN
- This one is pretty simple. I think Ole Miss is a much better team, and the Rebels are still technically battling for a potential spot in a New Year’s Six bowl. I’m really not sure what to make of this Mississippi State team. They started out the season with a huge win against what we now know to be a good Arizona team. But they followed that up with a close loss against South Carolina and blowout losses against Auburn, Kentucky and Texas A&M. That’s not what good teams do. Sure, you can toss out records in the Egg Bowl. But this feels like quite the mismatch. The only thing keeping me from putting this game into the best bet category is Ole Miss’ leaky run defense. If the Bulldogs are able to get that running game going, it could keep the clock moving and keep things close enough to find a way to get a backdoor cover in the end. I’m going to side with the better team. Give me Ole Miss, 31-16.
BK’S BEST BET:
Georgia (-24) @ Georgia Tech — 6:30 pm on ABC
- Georgia looks like an absolute buzzsaw right now. I know this is a huge number, but it’s deserved. Georgia Tech deserves props for a couple of impressive wins this season against North Carolina and Miami, but this is a very different level of competition. The Bulldogs are playing with everything on the line, and they mean business. Georgia has won its past six games by a combined score of 251-101. Every single game has been decided by multiple scores. Carson Beck is gaining steam, Brock Bowers is back, and this defense has found its identity. I wish nothing but the best for Georgia Tech. I just do not believe their run-based offense is going to be able to sustain against Georgia. Sorry, Yellow Jackets, this one could get ugly. Give me Georgia, 41-13.
NO STRONG LEAN:
Kentucky @ Louisville (-7) — 11:00 am on ABC
Texas A&M @ LSU (-10.5) — 11:00 am on ESPN
Alabama (-14.5) @ Auburn — 2:30 pm on CBS
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee (-27) — 2:30 pm on SEC Network
Florida State (-6.5) @ Florida — 6:00 pm on ESPN
Clemson (-7.5) @ South Carolina — 6:30 pm on SEC Network
Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.