Another first round gone, and another eventful day. Things were mostly looking like a quiet day until the Friday night window kicked in and the first One-Seed to dropped to a team who just a few days ago was ranked outside of the KenPom top 300.
And if it makes any Mizzou fans feel better, the Purdue now owns the largest loss to an underdog in NCAA Tournament history. The Boilermakers were 98.4% chance to win before the game according to KenPom, and they were a 23 point favorite before tip. But in what seems to becoming an occurrence with more frequency, a big favorite was dismissed by a much lower seeded opponent.
From 1985 to 2017, 15-seeds and 16-seeds won 3.3% of their games (9-264).— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) March 18, 2023
Since 2018, they've won 17.4% of their games (8-38).
A look at the winners: pic.twitter.com/8Mv3tlCxxo
It’s pretty incredible actually but with the transition which college basketball has been going through over the last few years there’s no surprise we’re seeing more of these upsets. With the transfer portal, and the extra COVID year for players, and Name, Image, and Likeness rights, plus the retirement of some of the coaching legends, the overall state of college basketball is in full blown realignment. Then you include the impact of the TV money which has caused coaching contracts and staff budgets to explode everywhere, everyone is trying to compete at a high level.
That’s thinned the margins by a significant amount.
If you look at KenPom, in 2002 (the first year he hosts with complete data) the Efficiency Margins for the best and worst teams were +34.19 and -31.15. This current season Houston is +28.55 and LIU is -29.78. Those margins are based upon your expected margin over the average D1 team over 100 possessions. So for example if Houston played 100 possessions against the most average D1 team they would win by 28.5 points.
But the first team on the list in the tweet above, the first listed 15 seed to beat a 2 seed was the Richmond Spiders. You know who they beat? Syracuse. Jim Boeheim had a team with three future NBA players (Billy Owens, Dave Johnson, and Leron Ellis), Richmond had zero NBA players, so it was a huge upset.
The next team was Santa Clara in 1993, they beat Arizona and Lute Olsen. The Wildcats had SEVEN future NBA players on that roster, led by Chris Mills and Khalid Reeves. Santa Clara had a freshman in Steve Nash, but the roster wasn’t built around him.
This year Purdue has no sure fire NBA players, and certainly no NBA draft picks this season. Zach Edey is a great college player, but there’s a reason the NBA has moved away from huge lumbering big men who stand in front of the rim.
When Missouri lost to Norfolk State, the Spartans had Kyle O’Quinn. O’Quinn played nearly 500 games in the NBA. Kim English and Phil Pressey combined for 189.
My overall point here is as the game has changed the talent gap has narrowed, and Athletics Department patience with coaches has been reduced significantly, college basketball is going through a significant transition. That means vulnerability for those at the top. Players at lower levels are older and some have been together longer as high major coaches search the portal for plug and play options to get to the next NCAA Tournament.
It also means teams and programs that are smart and play their cards right can move up into the upper echelon. Maybe Missouri is one of those teams who can position themselves well during this transitional period. Traditional blue blood programs like North Carolina and Duke have new coaches, Louisville is in flux, Syracuse is seeing Jim Boeheim retire, and Jay Wright has retired. The best coaches in the country are leaving and who is left is Bill Self. Maybe you include Kelvin Sampson, who is also probably gone within the next 5 years or so. In the SEC Texas and Oklahoma are coming in with Porter Moser and maybe Rodney Perry?
Again, the transitional period is, and has been, upon us.
Syracuse and Arizona in the 1990s did ok after their upsets. Other coaches who’ve lost to 15 or 16 seeds: Coach K, Tom Izzo, Tony Bennett, Chris Holtmann, John Calipari. And now Tommy Lloyd and Matt Painter. They’ll be fine.
Dennis Gates should go out and get this Dub, and help position Missouri as a team who could take advantage of all this transition.
Here are your winners from yesterday!
- Michigan State (7) over USC (10), 72-62
- Xavier (3) over Kennesaw State (14), 72-67
- Baylor (3) over UC-Santa Barbara (14), 74-56
- St. Mary’s (5) over VCU (12), 63-51
- Marquette (2) over Vermont (15), 78-61
- Pitt (11) over Iowa State (6), 59-41
- Creighton (6) over NC State (11), 72-63
- UConn (4) over Iona (13), 87-63
- Fairleigh Dickinson (16) over Purdue (1), 63-58
- Kentucky (6) over Providence (11), 61-53
- Gonzaga (3) over Grand Canyon (14), 82-70
- Miami FL (5) over Drake (12), 63-56
- Florida Atlantic (9) over Memphis (8), 66-65
- Kansas State (3) over Montana State (14), 77-65
- TCU (6) over Arizona State (11), 72-70
- Indiana (4) over Kent State (13), 71-60
Missouri-Princeton basketball: Time, Location
TIME: 5:10 p.m. CT
DATE: Saturday, March 18, 2023
LOCATION: Golden 1 Center; Sacramento, CA.
Missouri-Princeton basketball: Follow the game, TV Channel
STREAM: MarchMadness Live! App
SlingTV: CLICK HERE FOR SLINGTV
Missouri-Princeton basketball: Betting odds, predictions
As of Friday evening, Missouri is a 6.5-point favorite over Princeton according to DraftKing’s Sportsbook. The total points (over/under) is 149.5. KenPom predictive metrics has this game as a Missouri win with a score of 80-74.
NCAA Tournament Round of 32: What to watch
|11:10 AM||Furman (13)||San Diego State (5)||-5.5||138||CBS|
|1:40 PM||Duke (5)||-3.5||Tennessee (4)||128.5||CBS|
|4:15 PM||Arkansas (8)||Kansas (1)||-3.5||143||CBS|
|5:10 PM||Princeton (15)||Missouri (7)||-6.5||149.5||TNT|
|6:10 PM||Auburn (9)||Houston (1)||-5.5||132||TBS|
|6:45 PM||Penn State (10)||Texas (2)||-5.5||139.5||CBS|
|7:40 PM||Northwestern (7)||UCLA (2)||-7.5||127.5||TNT|
|8:40 PM||Maryland (8)||Alabama (1)||-9||144.5||TBS|
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