What void does Mizzou have to fill with Isiaih Mosley out the door?

Every so often this offseason, Isiaih Mosley posted updates on Snapchat and Instagram showing the sweat equity he was trying to accrue in workouts.

The setting was the same: Mizzou Arena’s practice gym. The attire? Program-provided apparel. In those snippets, whether alone or with trainers Pep Stanciel or Devin Griffin, Mosley projected the image of a player intent on sticking around and rehabilitating his stock after a disjointed senior season.

To be clear, there was always a path back to a roster spot – albeit without taking up a scholarship. And while inconsistent minutes kept his shooting stroke from coming online, a close inspection of his floor time showed a pathway back to productivity. Yet that was premised on circumstances allowing Mosley to be a more consistent presence in the lineup.

Instead, Mosley opted to depart and explore his professional stock, which might offer a longer-term source of income than NIL proceeds. His decision also effectively wrapped up MU’s roster retooling and posed a question: How will the Tigers adjust without his presence?

The short answer: trust the process.

But that doesn’t make for an exciting read. So, let’s tease it out a bit.

Fully optimized, the Columbia native riffs in pick-and-rolls, using an array of dribble moves to manipulate pace, carve out space, and punish defenses. No doubt, last season was frustrating, but the Rock Bridge product boasted a strong track record from Missouri State. As we documented shortly after the season, MU was better with him on the floor – even with his shooting stroke slightly awry.

Instead of rehabilitating his stock at MU, though, circumstances prompted Mosley to seek a steadier source of income professionally.

Two things are now accurate. First, this roster has talented pieces, with MU importing a top-10 transfer class and a top-30 prep class. Second, none of the newcomers have a similar history of providing steady production in a high-major conference.

The staff’s pursuits of Caleb Love and Matthew Cleveland tell us it wanted at least one perimeter player capable of breaking a play off to get a bucket. Inefficient as Love or Cleveland could be, landing one of them would have been an insurance policy if personal matters again forced Mosley into prolonged absences. Now, it’s a roster without that line of coverage.

Loose projections by Bart Torvik and our esteemed Matt Watkins called for Mosley to sport a usage rate of around 29 percent next season. Assuming Mosley played 28 minutes per game at a similar tempo, roughly 13 possessions would flow his way each time out. Multiplying those touches with Mosley’s career efficiency yields a peak scoring average of 18.2 points per game.

That would have ranked second in the SEC last season.

Even if we ratchet back his usage to 24 percent and pare down his efficiency by 15 percentage points, the combo guard would still average 13.8 points for the Tigers. You get the idea: Mosley would carry a substantial load in the scoring column – and backfill the output that Kobe Brown will take with him to the NBA.

Synergy Sports data lets us understand how Mosley preferred to operate over four seasons. It’s outlined in the table below, along with how per-game estimates for next season.

Mosley’s niche isn’t surprising. The man loved a good pick-and-roll, particularly those run in the middle of the floor. It was practically a given Mosley would use that screen, string together a couple of funky moves, and often get to the rim. But if he had to play in the mid-range, that was fine. Those pull-ups were still worth 1.094 PPP, per Synergy data.

Gates didn’t construct his offense with ball screens as a keystone, but the system wasn’t so rigid it excluded modern concepts. Those actions might have been ideal as a contingency plan in late-clock situations this season. Balance the floor, dispatch Noah Carter or Connor Vanover to set a middle ball screen, and then get out of the way.

Parceling out Mosley’s possessions isn’t a big deal. The stickier matter is whether a reconfigured rotation puts them to good use. For example, Mizzou did a stellar job maxing out catch-and-shoot jumpers and converting layups via a cut or on the break.

If Mosley’s would-be touches turn into catch-and-shoot jumpers for someone else, data suggests there might not be a reason for much anxiety. Last season, nine Tigers who suited up for Division-I programs drilled 35.5 percent of those attempts, which were worth 1.058 points per shot. That’s a slight dip in performance, but still good enough for MU to rank first or second in the SEC.

However, it’s different if this roster relies on pick-and-rolls to generate offense. It’s also one that goes beyond Mosley. Kobe Brown thrived in spread PNRs that allowed him to stalk for switches, whether driving by a slower-footed big or backing down a smaller guard. DeAndre Gholston also enjoyed using ball screens to turn on the stove and cook in the mid-range.

Now? The table below tells the tale of veterans still in the fold.

Averaging 0.731 points per possession would have ranked No. 269 nationally last season. By contrast, Mosley averaged 0.967 PPP over three full seasons in Springfield. Even if you’re conservative and account for a 15 percent dip in performance, his output (0.822 PPP) would still be the best on MU’s roster.

There is some modest consolation in the data showing Honor, East, and Carter occasionally ginned up some magic in isolation situations. However, Mosley’s career average for ISO touches in a season (46.5) is almost double Honor’s volume. But maybe the Judge decides he wants to make more late-clock rulings.

Bland as it sounds, the path forward is to work the system. Use your defense to create high-value transition chances. Deploy Carter and Connor Vanover in your triangle- and delay-series concepts. Let those actions churn out quality shots, keep the floor spaced, and try to exploit aggressive defenses with cutters. Along the way, the Tigers might find several combinations that thrive in ball screens.

That said, it’s June. Voluntary workouts just started last week, and there’s still installation work that must be done to integrate eight newcomers. The facets of this team’s identity will emerge in the dog days.

Maybe a new figurehead, too.