BK’s Bets: Week 3’s Best Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

Sometimes you just make the wrong call. That was the case for us last week. I leaned too much on history and too little on what we had seen. Alabama isn’t the same team. I was thrown off the Texas scent by their struggles against Rice. College football is a week-to-week game, and I fell victim to take lock. Taking Alabama as a 7.5-point favorite against Texas was just too easy, and I fell for the trap.

That being said, we’re 3-1 with our “worth a look” bets over the past couple weeks. So, it’s not all bad. Let’s hope we keep trending in the right direction with this week’s picks. Let’s get right to it, shall we?

WORTH A LOOK:

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Kansas State (-4) @ Missouri — 11:00 am on SEC Network

• I know, I know. I write for a Mizzou site and I’m picking against the Tigers. I have a feeling in my heart of hearts that this will be a one-score game. Nothing about what we’ve seen from these two teams suggests that will be the case, though. So, do I follow my head or my heart? I’m going to follow my head when it comes to my money. Kansas State is everything Missouri has not been. They’re great situationally. They make all the right decisions in all the right spots. They’re fundamentally sound. They have a very clear and cohesive identity both offensively and defensively. They have a fully formed foundation from their remarkable season last year. And they can lean on their previous experience beating the heck out of this Missouri defense from last season. All of it adds up to being too much for the Tigers. I don’t think this will be the blowout many fans are expecting, but I do think the line has moved a bit too far in the Tigers direction. Give me K-State, 27-20.

Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss (-18) — 6:30 pm on SEC Network

• Here’s a comprehensive list of teams to score 35+ points against Tulane over the past two seasons: UCF and USC last season, and Ole Miss this season. That’s the end of the list. I know Michael Pratt was out last week. That was still quite the impressive win for the Rebels. Now, they’re back home taking on a Georgia Tech team that’s tough to put a finger on. They gave Louisville one heck of a game in week one after finishing last season with wins against Pitt, Duke (OT) and North Carolina. This is a Tech team that’s good enough to do some damage, but I don’t think they’re good enough to get the job done against this high-flying Ole Miss offense. Give me the Rebels in Oxford, 41-20.

BK’S BEST BETS:

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LSU @ Mississippi State (+9.5) — 11:00 am on ESPN — 1.2

• So, wait, is Mississippi State good? It’s probably something we should be open to. The Bulldogs took down Arizona last week behind five turnovers. Meanwhile, the last time we watched LSU against a power five program, they were getting their butts whipped against FSU. If this game was in Baton Rouge, I wouldn’t touch it with a 10-foot pole. But in StarkVegas? With the Bulldogs feeling some momentum? I think this line is just too large to avoid. Mississippi State gets rid of the ball quickly, mitigating some of LSU’s pass rush. They have a stud running back in Jo’Quavious Marks. He has a chance to make some serious noise in this game. This is the type of week where something surprising happens. I think that surprise could very well be an upset of LSU — a preseason darling — falling to 1-2 at the hands of Mississippi State. Give me the Bulldogs outright, 27-23.

NO STRONG LEAN:

South Carolina @ Georgia (-27.5) — 2:30 pm on CBS

Alabama (-32) @ South Florida — 2:30 pm on ABC

UL Monroe @ Texas A&M (-36) — 3:00 pm on SEC Network

Tennessee (-6.5) @ Florida — 6:00 pm on ESPN

Vanderbilt (-4) @ UNLV — 6:00 pm on CBS Sports Network

BYU @ Arkansas (-8.5) — 6:30 pm on ESPN2

Akron @ Kentucky (-26) — 6:30 pm on ESPNU — 33.2

NO LINE:

Samford @ Auburn — 6:00 pm on ESPN+

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.