BK’s Bets: Week 5’s Best Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

We’re coming off a very “meh” 1-1-1 week against the spread. Kentucky took care of business, Memphis pushed against our Tigers and Florida found a way to disappoint against *checks notes* Charlotte (!?!). Thus is life in the SEC in 2023, I suppose. This conference is as tight as I can remember. The best teams in the SEC have regressed a bit toward the middle of the conference. There are roughly nine teams in the conference that fall somewhere in the 20-45 range in SP+ rankings nationally. That’s going to create some serious chaos within the conference, especially as we continue trying to figure out where these teams belong in the pecking order.

Homefield advantage is something that is going to matter in some of these picks moving forward. A specific matchup here or there could make all the difference in the world, as can the public overreacting to what it saw a week ago. We’ll try to sort through the noise to get to the picks.

Without further adieu, let’s get to it.

WORTH A LOOK:

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Texas A&M (-6) @ Arkansas — 11 am on SEC Network (AT&T Stadium in Arlington)

• I get it. People are scared off by Texas A&M’s starting quarterback missing the game. I don’t blame you. It’s a tough spot. But this Arkansas team isn’t doing a whole lot of slowing down its opponents, and Max Johnson is a more than capable backup. According to TheSpread.com, 36% of the wagers are coming in on Texas A&M... But A&M has moved from a 5-point favorite to a 6-point favorite, and in some books, it’s all the way up to 6.5. That reverse line movement tells you all you need to know. Don’t overreact to the quarterback news. Texas A&M will rely on its strong defense to slow down the KJ Jefferson-led Razorbacks attack, and win this game by a final of 34-24.

LSU @ Ole Miss (+2.5) — 5:00 pm on ESPN — Ole Miss by 2

• Another reverse line movement game. LSU opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The spread has dropped 2 points, but the sharps are still hammering the Rebels. Some models, such as SP+, actually have Ole Miss as the favorite to win this game. If I had any guts, this would be my best bet of the week. But I don’t. Ole Miss’ offense looked rather pedestrian last week against Alabama’s defense. Going up against two of the best edge rushers in the country and arguably the best corner in the country will do that to you. Even in a “down” season, Alabama boasts a top-10 defense in the country. LSU, well, it doesn’t. This has the potential to be the most entertaining game on the slate this weekend. Give me the Rebels in a close shootout at home, 37-34.

BK’S BEST BET:

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Florida @ Kentucky (-1.5) — 11 am on ESPN

• Florida does one thing exceptionally well on offense right now: Run the football. You know what Kentucky is really good at? Shutting down the run. No team has run for more than 3.6 yards per carry in a game against Kentucky this season. Some of that is the (lack of) the Wildcats’ strength of schedule. A lot of it is because the defense is talented, and Mike Stoops is one hell of a defensive coach. Kentucky has been a borderline top-5 run defense in the SEC each of the past three seasons. So this isn’t something that was unforeseen. I expect this to be an ugly slog of a football game with the defenses really stealing the show, but Kentucky is at home and the last time we saw Florida go on the road it ended in defeat at Utah. I could see a similar type of game here. Give me Kentucky in a close one, 20-16.

NO STRONG LEAN:

Missouri (-13.5) @ Vanderbilt — 3 pm on SEC Network

Georgia (-14.5) @ Auburn — 2:30 pm on CBS

South Carolina @ Tennessee (-12.5) — 6:30 pm on SEC Network

Alabama (-14.5) @ Mississippi State — 8:00 pm on ESPN

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.