BK’s Bets: Week 2’s Best Bets

Every week, Rock M Nation will post the SEC betting lines for that week’s slate of games. DISCLAIMER: Rock M Nation is not an online gambling operator, nor a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. None of the staff will be using this information for gambling purposes and are not liable for any losses incurred due to the analysis contained within.

We’re two weeks in and I’m officially off to a rough start, and it’s all because I didn’t listen to my gut. I went back-and-forth on whether to trust Utah with a backup quarterback, or to trust South Carolina with Spencer Rattler. In the end, I trusted what I saw from Rattler down the stretch instead of betting against what I believed we would see from Florida.

Lesson learned.

I fully believe this Florida team is going to be a disaster. The quarterback situation is terrible and the team could barely function around a first round quarterback a year ago. I think Billy Napier can recruit at a level that gets the Gators back on track, but he’s going to have a tough time keeping his job if this continues. Should’ve trusted my gut on the Gators’ issues.

Instead, we’re 0-2 to start the season because we’ve trusted checks notes Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Disgusting. That’s on me. We’ll do better this week.

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WORTH A LOOK:

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Texas A&M @ Miami (+4.5) — 2:30 pm on ABC

• It’s time for my favorite annual tradition: Fading Texas A&M! The Aggies got out to a nice start with a 52-10 win last week against New Mexico. This is the same New Mexico, of course, that finished last season 2-10. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings have New Mexico slotted in as the second worst team this season in the FBS. Not great! So, yeah, not much to learn there. The same was true for Miami who took care of business against Miami (Ohio). So, ultimately, this is a pick based on preseason projections. My expectations for Texas A&M’s offense remain lower than consensus. In this scenario, I’m getting a home dog with a good defense and a quarterback with some untapped potential. I’ll take it. Texas A&M wins a close one, 27-24.

Kent State @ Arkansas (-38) — 3:00 pm on SEC Network

• I mentioned how New Mexico is the second worst team in Connelly’s SP+ rankings. You know who ranks dead last? That would be Kent State! The Golden Flashes lost last week 56-6 at the hands of UCF. Now they’re about to play a team that I think is better than UCF. And the line is only 38 points? Okay, yeah, I’m willing to take that. I found it very strange that the Razorbacks were only able to rack up 105 yards last week against Western Carolina. I’m going to chalk that up to a weird game and say that gets corrected this week. Arkansas wins in a blowout, 51-10.

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BK’S BEST BETS:

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Texas @ Alabama (-7.5) — 6:00 pm on ESPN

• Did you guys watch Texas last week? It’s okay if you didn’t. It was one of those relatively meaningless games that we can’t learn much from. But what we can learn is generally not positive. Texas’ offense looked rather pedestrian. The Longhorns went into the half with just 16 points on the board, and they really struggled to finish drives. Quinn Ewers arrived on campus with a ton of hype, but the truth is he’s been nothing more than fine in his first couple seasons on campus. Maybe that suddenly changes against, you know, Alabama’s defense. I wouldn’t count on it. The Tide got back to their roots last week with a ground-and-pound approach that methodically picked apart Middle Tennessee’s defense. I heard someone compare Jalen Milroe to Jalen Hurts, and now I can’t unsee it. The Tide have the better defense. They have the better coach. They’re at home. If Milroe outplays Ewers, it’s a wrap. I think this ends up being a lower scoring affair than many are hoping for, but Alabama comes out with an impressive victory, 30-13.

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NO STRONG LEAN:

Middle Tennessee @ Missouri (-20.5) — 6:00 pm on ESPN+

Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest (-10) — 10:00 am on ACC Network

Ole Miss (-7) @ Tulane — 2:30 pm on ESPN2

Arizona @ Mississippi State (-9.5) — 6:30 pm on SEC Network

Auburn (-6.5) @ California — 9:30 pm on ESPN

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NO LINE:

Eastern Kentucky @ Kentucky — 2:00 pm on ESPN+

Austin Peay @ Tennessee — 4:00 pm on ESPN+

Grambling @ LSU — 6:30 pm on ESPN+

McNeese @ Florida — 6:30 pm on ESPNU

Furman @ South Carolina — 6:30 pm on ESPN+

Those are my picks for the week. All odds are provided by DraftKings. Which SEC teams will you be taking this week against the spread?

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.