Rock M Nation: All Posts by David MorrisonA Blog for Ol' Mizzouhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/50319/rmn-fav.png2019-08-01T09:00:00-05:00https://www.rockmnation.com/authors/david-morrison/rss2019-08-01T09:00:00-05:002019-08-01T09:00:00-05:00Projecting Every SEC Game in 2019
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<img alt="NCAA Football: SEC Media Day" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZFi5buyODe0u_nTKiEQtJ1xmL-M=/694x0:4752x2705/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64891908/usa_today_13067737.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Missouri is poised for a bit of a breakout. But how much of one?</p> <p id="p2iuCG">As soon as I got the indispensable Phil Steele college football guide in my grubby mitts, I knew what time it was.</p>
<p id="uHXNbx">For five of the six years I’ve been in Missouri, I’ve used the Steele prognostication, as well as its rotating five-year performance grid, to pick every game in the SEC for the coming season.</p>
<p id="fS0q5I">In those five years, I’ve picked a combined 71.0 percent of the games right overall, with a .586 mark in the SEC.</p>
<p id="Hv6qws">So, as I say every year, I’m about a 8-4 (5-3) or 9-3 (5-3) coach. Depending on if my guys slip up in the nonconference. I’m looking at you, Troy!</p>
<p id="wBqpId">For my methodology, <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2018/7/19/17589298/projecting-every-sec-football-game-2018-picks-predictions">check out last year</a>. I used Model 1 this year because I simply did not have time for Model 2. RIP Model 2.</p>
<p id="DSIBpn">Let’s do it:</p>
<p id="qG0uZz"><strong>East</strong><br><a href="https://www.dawgsports.com/"><strong>Georgia Bulldogs</strong></a><strong> — 11-1, 7-1</strong><br><a href="https://www.garnetandblackattack.com/"><strong>South Carolina Gamecocks</strong></a><strong> — 8-4, 5-3</strong><br><a href="https://www.alligatorarmy.com/"><strong>Florida Gators</strong></a><strong> — 9-3, 5-3</strong><br><strong>Missouri Tigers — 9-3, 5-3</strong><br><a href="https://www.aseaofblue.com/"><strong>Kentucky Wildcats</strong></a><strong> — 7-5, 3-5</strong><br><a href="https://www.rockytoptalk.com/"><strong>Tennessee Volunteers</strong></a><strong> — 5-7, 1-7</strong><br><a href="https://www.anchorofgold.com/"><strong>Vanderbilt Commodores</strong></a><strong> — 4-8, 0-8</strong><br><em>(you’ll see why South Carolina sneaks up to second later on...)</em></p>
<p id="KLG1Yn"><strong>West</strong><br><strong>Alabama Crimson TIde — 12-0, 8-0</strong><br><a href="https://www.andthevalleyshook.com/"><strong>LSU Tigers</strong></a><strong> — 11-1, 7-1</strong><br><a href="https://www.goodbullhunting.com/"><strong>Texas A&M Aggies</strong></a><strong> — 8-4, 5-3</strong><br><a href="https://www.forwhomthecowbelltolls.com/"><strong>Mississippi St. Bulldogs</strong></a><strong> — 8-4, 4-4</strong><br><a href="https://www.collegeandmagnolia.com/"><strong>Auburn Tigers</strong></a><strong> — 7-5, 3-5</strong><br><a href="https://www.redcuprebellion.com/"><strong>Ole Miss Rebels</strong></a><strong> — 4-8, 2-6</strong><br><a href="https://www.arkansasfight.com/"><strong>Arkansas Razorbacks</strong></a><strong> — 4-8, 1-7</strong></p>
<p id="owZvlm">Now let’s go team by team, starting with Missouri</p>
<p id="LxcJKj"><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/"><strong>Missouri Tigers</strong></a><strong> (9-3, 5-3)</strong><br>at Wyoming — W<br>West Virginia — W<br>SEMO — W<br>South Carolina — L<br>Troy — W<br>Ole Miss — W<br>at Vanderbilt — W<br>at Kentucky — W<br>at Georgia — L<br>Florida — L<br>Tennessee — W<br>at Arkansas — W</p>
<p id="rTCOyQ">(I don’t have a big issue with this and can totally see it happening. With the weirdness that has been Missouri of late, though, my gut is telling me to actually lean toward 10-2, 6-2, with a win over Florida and a loss to South Carolina...for some reason...)</p>
<p id="FGCH3a">Here’s the rest of the league, with who the model has them losing to:</p>
<p id="eFLFEB"><strong>East</strong></p>
<p id="O8zSvL"><strong>Georgia (11-1, 7-1)</strong><br>vs. Florida (in Jacksonville) — L</p>
<p id="ihxsjA"><strong>South Carolina (8-4, 5-3)</strong><br>vs. Alabama — L<br>at Georgia — L<br>at Texas A&M — L<br>Clemson — L<br><em>(and there it is. Money wins against Florida and Missouri, losses to the West and Georgia)</em></p>
<p id="Kg5HOD"><strong>Florida (9-3, 5-3)</strong><br>vs. Auburn — L<br>at LSU — L<br>at South Carolina — L</p>
<p id="262PoV"><strong>Kentucky (7-5, 3-5)</strong><br>vs. Florida — L<br>at Mississippi St. — L<br>at South Carolina — L<br>at Georgia — L<br>Missouri — L</p>
<p id="eFTPGD"><strong>Tennessee (5-7, 1-7)</strong><br>at Florida — L<br>vs. Georgia — L<br>vs. Mississippi St. — L<br>at Alabama — L<br>vs. South Carolina — L<br>at Kentucky — L<br>at Missouri — L</p>
<p id="X3nrMX"><strong>Vanderbilt (4-8, 0-8)</strong><br>vs. Georgia — L<br>vs. LSU — L<br>vs. Ole Miss — L<br>vs. Missouri — L<br>at South Carolina — L<br>at Florida — L<br>at Kentucky — L<br>at Tennessee — L<br><em>(by the way, how crazy of a conference schedule is this? 4 straight home, then 4 straight road?)</em></p>
<p id="jbO7cm"><strong>West</strong></p>
<p id="jhXEud"><strong>Alabama (12-0, 8-0)</strong><br>Pass.</p>
<p id="rcpXCI"><strong>LSU (11-1, 7-1)</strong><br>at Alabama — L</p>
<p id="ufCyxl"><strong>Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)</strong><br>at Clemson — L<br>vs. Alabama — L<br>at Georgia — L<br>at LSU — L</p>
<p id="bibOT9"><strong>Mississippi St. (8-4, 4-4)</strong><br>at Auburn — L<br>vs. LSU — L<br>at Texas A&M — L<br>vs. Alabama — L</p>
<p id="bwvbdz"><strong>Auburn (7-5, 3-5)</strong><br>at Texas A&M — L<br>at LSU — L<br>vs. Ole Miss — L<br>vs. Georgia — L<br>vs. Alabama — L<br><em>(Auburn has a bruuuuuuuuutal schedule this year. Sorry, Gus...)</em></p>
<p id="baeUdZ"><strong>Ole Miss (4-8, 2-6)</strong><br>vs. Arkansas — L<br>at Alabama — L<br>at Missouri — L<br>vs. Texas A&M — L<br>vs. LSU — L<br>at Mississippi St. — L</p>
<p id="YUpYnH"><strong>Arkansas (4-8, 1-7)</strong><br>vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, Texas) — L<br>at Kentucky — L<br>vs. Auburn — L<br>at Alabama — L<br>vs. Mississippi St. — L<br>vs. Western Kentucky — L<br>at LSU — L<br>vs. Missouri — L</p>
<p id="4z4uHp">So there you have it. Be sure to find me in November and tell me how wrong I was...</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="Uh4HKy">
<p id="KREt94"><em>...but you might have to look a little harder to find me this year.</em></p>
<p id="VavWGS"><em>This is the last piece I’m writing for RockMNation. Because of professional and life changes, I just do not have the time to devote to covering the team that I would want to for this role and that you deserve as readers.</em></p>
<p id="FyiNln"><em>I don’t usually get mushy — I save it for that one episode of Futurama...you know the one! — so I won’t here. But I just wanted to briefly say how much of a joy it’s been covering this team for the past six years and writing for and interacting with you, the readers.</em></p>
<p id="GbNG2W"><em>I would not have sent myself into premature blindness poring over the broadcast of the past 78 Missouri games to bring you all snap counts and other useless minutiae if I didn’t enjoy it. And the thing I enjoyed most about it was finding cool stuff for you all to talk about.</em></p>
<p id="ih55M2"><em>You probably had to wade through 98 percent lame boringness to get to said cool stuff, but I hope the 2 percent was worth it for you.</em></p>
<p id="NpiFEN"><em>It was for me. Thanks again.</em></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="CloA35">
<p id="OIp75b">A message from me, Sam Snelling:</p>
<p id="LtrKVf">I just wanted to take a moment to thank David for his writing over the last few years. Rock M Nation has changed a lot since David signed up to write for us. 182 articles later we’ve learned a lot about Missouri football and it’s because of David’s efforts. I’m going to miss reading his pithiness even in the face of giant spreadsheets of numbers, and I’m really going to miss snap counts because I can’t fathom asking someone to perform the task he did every Sunday after a Missouri football game. I’m thankful for David having done what he’s done, and I’m sure you will all join me is saying thank you to David for his time and effort. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/missouri-tigers-football/2019/8/1/20749365/mizzou-football-projecting-every-sec-game-in-2019David Morrison2019-07-25T09:00:00-05:002019-07-25T09:00:00-05:00A Plus-Minus Exercise for Missouri’s Returning D-Linemen
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<img alt="Missouri v Florida" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/15z1CgCsmPixgof1aR7-vWpejM8=/0x304:2372x1885/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64823334/1057033810.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Missouri’s defense was effective in Trajan Jeffcoat’s snaps last year. Could that lead to increased opportunities for the sophomore in 2019? | Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>How did the Tigers’ defense perform overall when different linemen played last year?</p> <p id="mteavf">You could evaluate what Missouri has coming back at defensive line this year by checking out the stat lines of Chris Turner, Jordan Elliott, Tre Williams, Akial Byers, Kobie Whiteside and Trajan Jeffcoat.</p>
<p id="6MRQgD">But I’ve <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/6/13/18663344/missouri-football-defensive-line-regression-d-line-zou">already done that</a>, so here’s something a little different.</p>
<p id="gv8iIk">This time, let’s look at the defense’s performance as a whole last year when those six players – the only six on the roster who played at least 10 percent of the team’s defensive snaps – were on the field.</p>
<p id="gfwdWc">I’ve done something similar for the secondary in the past, but I wanted to translate down into the trenches. Think about it as a plus-minus for linemen. </p>
<p id="rFoWw0">So here is how the Missouri defense performed in 2018 when each of these players was on the field. A brief note: all these rush figures aren’t counting sack yardage. </p>
<p id="QgRf43"><strong>Chris Turner</strong></p>
<p id="QiY2vm"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>232 for 965 (4.16 avg.), 6 TD, TO<br><strong>Pass: </strong>142-of-243, 2130 yards (8.77 avg.), 15 TD, 5 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>17 for -112<br><strong>Total: </strong>492 for 2983 (6.06 avg.), 21 TD, 6 TO</p>
<p id="ARIei1"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>191 for 824 (4.31 avg.), 5 TD<br><strong>Pass: </strong>121-of-200, 1887 yards (9.44 avg.), 15 TD, 4 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>13 for -91<br><strong>Total: </strong>404 for 2620 (6.49 avg.), 20 TD, 4 TO</p>
<p id="OLiblQ"><strong>Tre Williams</strong></p>
<p id="oxLQej"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>193 for 801 (4.15 avg.), 5 TD, 2 TO<strong> </strong><br><strong>Pass: </strong>123-of-215, 1701 yards (7.91 avg.), 13 TD, 6 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>14 for -95<br><strong>Total: </strong>422 for 2407 (5.70 avg.), 18 TD, 8 TO</p>
<p id="hnt5CK"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>143 for 565 (3.95 avg.), 3 TD, TO<br><strong>Pass: </strong>101-of-173, 1447 yards (8.36 avg.), 11 TD, 4 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>9 for -71<br><strong>Total: </strong>325 for 1941 (5.97 avg.), 14 TD, 5 TO</p>
<p id="4Z6bmm"><strong>Jordan Elliott</strong></p>
<p id="3gel8f"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>168 for 651 (3.88 avg.), 6 TD, TO<br><strong>Pass: </strong>112-of-195, 1727 yards (8.86 avg.), 13 TD, 5 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>11 for -83<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>374 for 2295 (6.14 avg.), 19 TD, 6 TO<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="lU6w6F"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>132 for 496 (3.76 avg.), 3 TD, TO<strong> </strong><br><strong>Pass: </strong>95-of-164, 1514 yards (9.23 avg.), 12 TD, 4 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>9 for -78<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>305 for 1932 (6.33 avg.), 15 TD, 5 TO<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="6VdcoA"><strong>Akial Byers</strong></p>
<p id="YbWj7Y"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>191 for 953 (4.99 avg.), 7 TD<strong> </strong><br><strong>Pass: </strong>85-of-157, 1153 yards (7.34 avg.), 9 TD, 6 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>9 for -55<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>357 for 2051 (5.75 avg.), 16 TD, 6 TO<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="JKBRas"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>157 for 783 (4.99 avg.), 4 TD <br><strong>Pass: </strong>72-of-122, 965 yards (7.91 avg.), 7 TD, 5 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>8 for -53<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>287 for 1695 (5.91 avg.), 11 TD, 5 TO</p>
<p id="hZUvz2"><strong>Kobie Whiteside</strong></p>
<p id="hJbO1k"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>96 for 389 (4.05 avg.), 2 TD<strong> </strong><br><strong>Pass: </strong>37-of-65, 512 yards (7.88 avg.), 4 TD, TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>3 for -16<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>164 for 885 (5.40 avg.), 6 TD, TO<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="J4y3O0"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>68 for 247 (3.63 avg.), TD <br><strong>Pass: </strong>25-of-41, 306 yards (7.46 avg.), 3 TD, TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>1 for -12<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>110 for 541 (4.92 avg.), 4 TD, TO</p>
<p id="QBjFnk"><strong>Trajan Jeffcoat</strong></p>
<p id="4ySd01"><strong>Overall</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>46 for 239 (5.20 avg.)<br><strong>Pass: </strong>36-of-77, 505 yards (6.56 avg.), 3 TD, 5 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>7 for -50<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>130 for 694 (5.34 avg.), 3 TD, 5 TO<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="YhjWS7"><strong>Power-5</strong><br><strong>Run: </strong>25 for 145 (5.80 avg.) <br><strong>Pass: </strong>27-of-56, 358 yards (6.39 avg.), TD, 4 TO<br><strong>Sack: </strong>5 for -45<strong> </strong><br><strong>Total: </strong>86 for 458 (5.33 avg.), TD, 4 TO</p>
<p id="sJ9aFR">Now let’s stack them up against each in some stat categories and compare them to the team totals.</p>
<p id="X06QKT"><strong>Overall</strong></p>
<p id="kfMgTb"><strong>Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 5.34<br>Whiteside: 5.40<br><em>Team: 5.68</em><br>Williams: 5.70<br>Byers: 5.75<br>Turner: 6.06<br>Elliott: 6.14</p>
<p id="T3LP08"><strong>Rush Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Elliott: 3.88<br>Whiteside: 4.05<br>Williams: 4.15<br>Turner: 4.16<br><em>Team: 4.36</em><br>Byers: 4.99<br>Jeffcoat: 5.20</p>
<p id="ATrooH"><strong>Pass Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 6.56<br>Byers: 7.34<br><em>Team: 7.65</em><br>Whiteside: 7.88<br>Williams: 7.91<br>Turner: 8.77<br>Elliott: 8.86</p>
<p id="rDR1qV"><strong>Passes per Sack</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 12.0<br>Turner: 15.3<br>Williams: 16.4<br><em>Team: 17.5</em><br>Byers: 18.4<br>Elliott: 18.7<br>Whiteside: 22.7</p>
<p id="wb0eRe"><strong>Plays per TD</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 43.3<br>Whiteside: 27.3<br><em>Team: 25.4</em><br>Byers: 22.3<br>Turner: 23.4<br>Williams: 23.4<br>Elliott: 19.7</p>
<p id="vpY3oQ"><strong>Plays per TO</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 26.0<br>Williams: 52.8<br><em>Team: 55.6</em><br>Byers: 59.5<br>Elliott: 62.3<br>Turner: 82.0<br>Whiteside: 164.0</p>
<p id="JO0wmZ"></p>
<p id="1jmjAb"><strong>Power-5</strong></p>
<p id="gBULLz"><strong>Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Whiteside: 4.92<br>Jeffcoat: 5.33<br>Byers: 5.91<br><em>Team: 5.96</em><br>Williams: 5.97<br>Elliott: 6.33<br>Turner: 6.49</p>
<p id="j1pDKB"><strong>Rush Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Whiteside: 3.63<br>Elliott: 3.76<br>Williams: 3.95<br>Turner: 4.31<br><em>Team: 4.34</em><br>Byers: 4.99<br>Jeffcoat: 5.80</p>
<p id="iG7cA9"><strong>Pass Yards per Play Against</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 6.39<br>Whiteside: 7.46<br>Byers: 7.91<br><em>Team: 8.18</em><br>Williams: 8.36<br>Elliott: 9.23<br>Turner: 9.44</p>
<p id="rBH91o"><strong>Passes per Sack</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 12.2<br>Byers: 16.3<br>Turner: 16.4<br>Elliott: 19.2<br><em>Team: 19.4</em><br>Williams: 20.2<br>Whiteside: 42.0</p>
<p id="0Dy1Kl"><strong>Plays per TD</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 86.0<br>Whiteside: 27.5<br>Byers: 26.1<br><em>Team: 24.7</em><br>Williams: 23.2<br>Elliott: 20.3<br>Turner: 20.2</p>
<p id="ThxG7D"><strong>Plays per TO</strong><br>Jeffcoat: 21.5<br>Byers: 57.4<br><em>Team: 57.6</em><br>Elliott: 61.0<br>Williams: 65.0<br>Turner: 101.0<br>Whiteside: 110.0</p>
<p id="CkULTM">A couple of observations</p>
<p id="idUujj"> — Because of the volume of snaps played, you almost have to take Turner, Williams, Elliott and Byers (around 40-55 of the defense’s snaps played) as one group and Whiteside and Jeffcoat (15-18 percent) as another.</p>
<p id="CjcgzJ"> — Jeffcoat, though he played the least of this group, had a lot of bang for his buck in the snaps that he was in, with the defense sacking and turning teams over at an elevated rate (but also giving up more yards per carry). A lot of that has to do with the situations he found himself in — he was in the Dime set a lot — but if he can help bring that increased production to more snaps this year, he could be a valuable candidate for more playing time.</p>
<p id="i34gj3"> — Generally, the defense fared better with Williams and Byers on the field than with Turner. The defense did better against the run with Turner on the field, though, and it logged fewer snaps per sack with Turner on the field than Williams. </p>
<p id="rTW99x"> — The defense with Elliott on the field struggled mightily against the pass but fared well against the run. And the two returning tackles logged the top two rush yards per carry against when it came to Power-5 opponents. So that’s nice.</p>
<p id="6zSo4g">If you want to see my work, including a game-by-game breakdown, see below:</p>
<div id="0Nsfu6"><iframe width="100%" height="500" frameborder="0" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT8UX5WeRfatKpyvQA2Bx_8YTzcyYZiv072Y4hkuejL0KzphmOnjXJkd9g-AeOWN8siINGUc0qYtGNO/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></div>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/7/25/20726602/missouri-football-defensive-line-2019-preview-analysis-jordan-elliottDavid Morrison2019-07-19T09:00:00-05:002019-07-19T09:00:00-05:00How Does Missouri Go From Middling to Good?
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Missouri at Tennessee" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Xopd2A6YfRoYRC31bom3l5sPyto=/0x0:3331x2221/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64763330/usa_today_11687674.5.jpg" />
<figcaption>Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>What stats can the 2019 Tigers target in order to launch into the 10-win echelon?</p> <p id="tquGob">Missouri has risen from the doldrums the past two seasons, about-facing from a 9-15 record in 2015-16 to a 15-11 record and SEC East relevance again in 207-18.</p>
<p id="wmKfwJ">What’s the next step? How about emerging from the 7-6/8-5/9-4 realm and reclaiming a spot among the 10-winners?</p>
<p id="Ofcea7">I looked at pertinent offensive and defensive metrics from the Tigers’ past five 10-plus win seasons — 2014, 2013, 2010, 2008 and 2007 — and past five winning, but not great, seasons — 2018, 2017, 2011, 2009 and 2006 — to see what the biggest differences were.</p>
<p id="FXL9ei">Why five? Why not? Stop asking questions.</p>
<p id="JJT5Jk">So let’s see what those more successful teams had on Missouri’s middlingly successful ones, and analyze how good of a chance 2019 has to shore those gulfs.</p>
<p id="VXbWs4"><strong>Scoring</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>494.8<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>431.8<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>-12.7</p>
<p id="fhqpzA"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Pretty good. In <em>the</em> offensive measure — how many points you’re putting on the board — the past two Tigers teams were pretty close to the overall average scoring power of the best Missouri teams of recent memory: 476 points in 2018, 488 in 2017. With seven starters back and Kelly Bryant coming in, this team could definitely hold serve and even make up a little ground.</p>
<p id="cfDYXs"><strong>Rushing Touchdowns</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>27.4<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>20.8<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>-24.1</p>
<p id="zhHqNq"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Decent. While the other rushing stats from good to decent seasons aren’t that different — -4.5 percent in yards for middling seasons, -5.1 percent in yards per rush — the middling Tigers teams do not score on the ground nearly as often as the good ones. Larry Rountree can help with that, and Bryant can be a more durable runner than Drew Lock in the red zone.</p>
<p id="BArAY4"><strong>Plays per Turnover</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>52.3<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>45.4<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>-13.1</p>
<p id="mEzlRj"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Unclear. The best Tigers teams turn the ball over about 13 percent less frequently on a per-play basis than the decent ones. But 2018’s plays-per-turnover mark (66.9) was actually better than the best of the good years, 2013 (65.1). Missouri has some sure-handed position players, but Bryant’s interception percentage in 2017 at Clemson (2.01) was also about 10 percent worse than Lock’s last year (1.83).</p>
<p id="nPUpAX"><strong>Red-Zone Touchdowns</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>66.4<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>58.7<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>-11.6</p>
<p id="noXkYQ"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Unclear, again. You’d think this year’s Tigers would have pretty good potential to put up a plus red-zone touchdown percentage with playmakers such as Albert Okwuegbunam, Rountree and Johnathon Johnson, but then again all those guys were there last year as well, and 2018 Missouri scored touchdowns on only 61.3 percent of its red-zone trips.</p>
<p id="DtoMjx"><strong>Defensive Passing Yards per Attempt</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>6.45<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>6.98<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>8.11%</p>
<p id="EqLghs"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Not super. So .53 yards per attempt doesn’t seem like a huge deal, right? Well, when teams are averaging 450 attempts against you in a season, that’s 239 extra yards. Or 3.19 extra trips down a 75-yard, touchback-shortened field. And 2017-18 has been horrible in this department, putting up back-to-back marks of 7.65 and 7.50. While DeMarkus Acy and Christian Holmes are good corners to hang a secondary on, they and the safeties have also shown the capacity to give up some big hitters.</p>
<p id="qWs07W"><strong>Defensive</strong> <strong>Plays per Turnover</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>36.4<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>43.4<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>19.2</p>
<p id="iLUKFi"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Again, not great. This is another thing the 2017-18 defenses were pretty bad at. The 2017 Tigers forced a turnover every 55.6 plays, the 2018 Tigers every 56.6. To put that in perspective, 2007 (31.4), 2010 (31.9) and 2013 (33.8) all put up numbers in the thirties. That would necessitate a sea change in the 2019 team’s ability to get the ball back.</p>
<p id="5HXeKw"><strong>Defensive Red Zone (all of it)</strong><br><strong>Plus Seasons Avg: </strong>75.0 score%, 55.4 TD%<br><strong>Mid Seasons Avg: </strong>84.6 score%, 59.9 TD%<br><strong>Mid Gulf to Plus %: </strong>12.8, 8.23</p>
<p id="QtSBng"><strong>2019 Growth Potential: </strong>Unclear. While the good Tigers teams allow just about as many red-zone opportunities as the middling ones, they also give up about 14 percent more scores and 10 percent more touchdowns overall, for about 11-percent worse points per red-zone trip. The 2018 team made some steps forward in the touchdown department (55.6 percent, down 66.7 from 2017), but not in the scores department (88.9, down from 91.1). Stopping touchdowns takes some good run-stuffers and physical cover corners, both of which the Tigers have. Stopping scores, though, takes turnovers, goal-line stands…and hoping for the other team to make field goals. </p>
<p id="ZJey87">My work is below, if you want to see:</p>
<div id="T2N0s8"><iframe width="100%" height="625" frameborder="0" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRdXmRyq_jLJEEwSVIdy66K0NaTRMoi784HDJvhZoYNfMA43wC73U_pbkDI5v5lOPYwlcdGEhUtYe5a/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></div>
<p id="CKevdA"></p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/7/19/20699153/how-does-missouri-go-from-middling-to-goodDavid Morrison2019-07-11T09:30:00-05:002019-07-11T09:30:00-05:00Coming up with a Missouri SEC-era dream team, position by position
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Missouri at Florida" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nWBmEi2yfifXx6CS9iw5uuVy6ek=/0x0:3663x2442/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64706621/usa_today_11586726.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Christian Holmes will have a key role in helping make this year’s cornerbacks as good as the E.J. Gaines-led 2013 group. | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Can any 2019 groups match up with the best the Tigers have had to offer since the big move?</p> <p id="ECI2SY">This will be Missouri’s eighth year in the big, bad ESS-EEE-CEE.</p>
<p id="vnRBMk">The Tigers have had some good years (2013-14), some bad years (2012, 2015-16) and some meh years (2017-18).</p>
<p id="wUHz8S">With the way the roster, schedule and the rest of the league are shaping up for 2019, Missouri has a real shot to land between “meh” and “good.” Let’s call it “plus-meh.”</p>
<p id="JO8WWk">With that in mind, I went back from 2012 on and looked position by position to pick out the top group the Tigers have boasted at each spot, then evaluated the chances this year’s team has at equaling the best of the recent past.</p>
<p id="fE2JL7"><em>Disclaimer: There’s a whole lot of 2013 in there.</em></p>
<p id="mKTJ7J"><strong>Quarterback</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2018<br><strong>Key Contributor: </strong>Drew Lock – 275-of-437, 3498 yards, 28 TD, 8 INT, 147.65 rating<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Eh, probably not. Kelly Bryant will be good, but he might have a hard time going toe-to-toe production-wise with what Lock did last year: so picked over 2017 Lock because of increased efficiency and better play against better defenses.</p>
<p id="WPHHBH"><strong>Running Back</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2013<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Henry Josey – 174 carries, 1166 yards, 16 TD; Russell Hansbrough – 114 carries, 685 yards, 4 TD; Marcus Murphy – 92 carries, 601 yards, 9 TD<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Call me biased toward the team I actually covered, but I think not. Larry Rountree may end up being a better back than Josey, Hansbrough or Murphy, if he’s not already. But that depth on the 2013 team – plus James Franklin’s legs – made it so the run game was a constant threat to go along with a pretty potent passing attack as well. Rountree and Tyler Badie are both proven, solid commodities, but we don’t yet know where that third back will come from.</p>
<p id="AAkuyP"><strong>Wide Receiver</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2013<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>L’Damian Washington – 50 catches, 893 yards, 10 TD; Dorial Green-Beckham – 59 catches, 883 yards, 12 TD; Marcus Lucas – 58 catches, 692 yards, 3 TD; Bud Sasser – 26 catches, 361 yards, TD; Jimmie Hunt – 22 catches, 253 yards, TD<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Nah. I mean, just look at that group. You had a basketball frontcourt starting, with each member bringing complementary skill sets to the mix. Then you had Sasser, the dude who helped save the 2014 season at times, basically <em>coming off the bench</em>. Johnathon Johnson is a good piece to have at the top this year, Jalen Knox showed flashes and Jonathan Nance is intriguing, but I don’t think this team can run five-deep like 2013 did.</p>
<p id="AEiuCi"><strong>Tight End</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2017<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Albert Okwuegbunam – 29 catches, 415 yards, 11 TD; Kendall Blanton – 6 catches, 138 yards, TD; Jason Reese – 5 catches, 134 yards, 3 TD<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>You know what? I think so. Okwuegbunam is back (conceivably) healthy and two years better than 2017, and Daniel Parker will have another offseason at the position under his belt…and he wasn’t too shabby last year to begin with. Whoever comes out of the Brendan Scales/Messiah Swinson/Logan Christopherson mix may have trouble measuring up to the versatility of Reese but 2019’s top two might be better enough than 2017’s to not make it matter much.</p>
<p id="GqdlUg"><strong>Offensive Line</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2013<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>LT Justin Britt; LG Max Copeland; C Evan Boehm; RG Connor McGovern; RT Mitch Morse<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Probably not, and just for the simple fact that it would be tough for any program in any year to sport a line that featured four future draft picks (plus my all-time favorite interview/person I covered!) and NFL starters, all of whom basically stayed healthy for the entire season. Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms, Trystan Colon-Castillo and Yasir Durant have provided the backbone to some pretty stellar Missouri lines over the past 2-3 years, but it remains to be seen who the new starters are and what level they can be expected to play this season.</p>
<p id="NWOEIc"><strong>Defensive Ends</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2013<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Michael Sam – 48 tackles, 19 TFL, 11.5 sacks; Kony Ealy – 43 tackles, 14.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks; Markus Golden – 55 tackles, 13 TFL, 6.5 sacks; Shane Ray – 39 tackles, 9 TFL, 4.5 sacks<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Nope, and for much the same reason explained in the offensive line section. You’ve got four future draft picks on the two-deep – including one first-rounder and two second-rounders – and Golden pulling insane per-snap production numbers as a backup. And, unlike the offensive line situation, the raw material for this to be a solid-to-standout group doesn’t appear to be there. Chris Turner and Akial Byers (and Tre Williams?) got a bunch of experience last year, but no one really differentiated himself.</p>
<p id="ahUWqb"><strong>Defensive Tackles</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2014<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Harold Brantley – 54 tackles, 7 TFL, 5 sacks; Lucas Vincent – 42 tackles, 8 TFL, 3.5 sacks; Matt Hoch – 35 tackles, 9 TFL, 3 sacks; Josh Augusta – 22 tackles, 3.5 TFL, sack<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Like Sheldon Richardson and Terry Beckner before him, Jordan Elliott could end up being a better overall player than Brantley (although I think we forget how dynamic Brantley was before the car crash and his exit from the program), but I don’t know that 2019 has the juice down the roster to march Vincent, Hoch and Augusta. The Tigers’ top four tackles in 2014 all played interchangeably and well on a good defense. I don’t know that this year’s team can reach down very far behind the starters and expect no dropoff.</p>
<p id="gm2p8K"><strong>Linebackers</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2015<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Kentrell Brothers – 152 tackles, 12 TFL, 2.5 sacks; Michael Scherer – 93 tackles, 9 TFL; Donavin Newsom – 63 tackles, 9 TFL, 2.5 sacks; Clarence Green – 26 tackles, TFL<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Cale Garrett is going to be a really good middle linebacker for the Tigers this year, possibly better than Scherer and Andrew Wilson by the time his career comes to a close. But he lost his Brothers (Terez Hall) and Newsom (Brandon Lee) to graduation, and it’s anybody’s guess as to who will step up and how effective they’ll be this season.</p>
<p id="tZnfea"><strong>Cornerbacks</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2013<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>E.J. Gaines – 75 tackles, 5 INT, 3 PBU; Randy Ponder – 56 tackles, 10 PBU; Aarion Penton – 16 tackles, INT, PBU; John Gibson – 14 tackles, INT, 3 PBU<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>I think so, actually. DeMarkus Acy may not end up as good as Gaines, but he is plenty good and Christian Holmes has the potential to be a much more impactful corner than Ponder. Add in Adam Sparks as an experienced backup/Nickelback, and you’ve got the beginnings of a pretty stout group.</p>
<p id="Se7SZE"><strong>Safeties</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2014<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Braylon Webb – 70 tackles, 4 INT, 3 PBU; Ian Simon – 54 tackles, 3 PBU; Duron Singleton – 52 tackles, 2.5 TFL, sack; Thomas Wilson – 17 tackles, PBU; Anthony Sherrils – 13 tackles<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Maybe not, but check back with me in 2020. Joshuah Bledsoe and Tyree Gillespie have both showed promise, and Jalani Williams has the pedigree. Could be a pretty good group pretty soon.</p>
<p id="UY26k3"><strong>Specialists</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2018<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Tucker McCann – 24-of-33 FG, 51-of-54 XP, 123 points, 59.6 TB%; Corey Fatony – 44.4 avg., 24 in20<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>One half of it can. McCann is back and two years removed from his nightmare-inducing freshman campaign in 2016. But who will do the punting? And will he do it as well as Fatony? And will he be as good at bench press and selling fake punts?</p>
<p id="3EeTb0"><strong>Returns</strong><br><strong>Dream Year: </strong>2012<br><strong>Key Contributors: </strong>Marcus Murphy – 19 KO, 458 yards, TD; 27 PR, 374 yards, 3 TD<br><strong>Can 2019 Match Up?: </strong>Nah. Johnathon Johnson had a pretty good year on punt returns in 2017 but was a non-factor last year, and I can’t see them asking him to do too much more than fair catching and keeping the ball safe in 2019. Richaud Floyd is still on the roster, though, and he’s been an intermittently dynamic returner. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/7/11/20689383/missouri-football-sec-era-dream-team-position-analysisDavid Morrison2019-07-04T09:00:00-05:002019-07-04T09:00:00-05:00SEC Coaching Stability is a Rare and Glorious Thing
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Missouri at Florida" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2MQ6GjEtlRB8SUtUEHKuQkIAJE0=/56x0:5047x3327/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64673156/usa_today_11589280.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Barry Odom’s program is about middle of the road when it comes to stability and future prospects in the SEC. Which, all things considered, isn’t that bad of a place to be. | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>For the first time since 2006, the league (barring something major) will have no new coaches entering the fall.</p> <p id="6Mmjbp">This year, the Fourth of July has me thinking of history. </p>
<p id="ODHmJ2">Specifically, this bit of history that former colleague and friend to the end Ross Dellenger <a href="https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/05/24/sec-head-coach-changes-carousel-history">pointed out back in May</a>: this is the first time since 2006 that there will be no new coaches in the SEC. You know, unless something crazy happens between now and the start of the season.</p>
<p id="fs32zF">The Fourth also has me thinking about independence. Specifically, the independence from having to cover coaching searches and all the accompanying nonsense that this relative period of coach tranquility means.</p>
<p id="Tork7A">Now let’s go back to history for a second. Let’s look at that crop of 12 SEC coaches — and Missouri and Texas A&M, Big 12ers at the time — to see the relative stability of their programs back then, compare it with the stability of those programs now and see who’s better off now, worse off and about the same.</p>
<p id="mLcxz3">These rankings are based on no science or math at all and entirely subjective so, please, feel free to yell things at me in the comments.</p>
<p id="nRnoV6"><strong>2006 Stability Rankings</strong><br><strong>1. Auburn -- </strong>Tommy Tuberville (60-27, 7 years)<br><strong>2. Georgia – </strong>Mark Richt (52-13, 5 years)<br><strong>3. LSU – </strong>Les Miles (11-2, 1 year)<br><strong>4. Florida – </strong>Urban Meyer (9-3, 1 year)<br><strong>5. Tennessee – </strong>Phillip Fulmer (127-37-1, 15 years)<br><strong>6. South Carolina – </strong>Steve Spurrier (7-5, 1 year)<br><strong>7. Missouri* -- </strong>Gary Pinkel (29-30, 5 years)<br><strong>8. Arkansas – </strong>Houston Nutt (57-40, 8 years)<br><strong>9. Alabama – </strong>Mike Shula (20-17, 3 years)<br><strong>10. Texas A&M* -- </strong>Dennis Franchione (17-19, 3 years)<br><strong>11. Ole Miss – </strong>Ed Orgeron (3-8, 1 year)<br><strong>12. Vanderbilt – </strong>Bobby Johnson (11-35, 4 years)<br><strong>13. Mississippi St. – </strong>Sylvester Croom (6-16, 2 years)<br><strong>14. Kentucky – </strong>Rich Brooks (9-25, 3 years) </p>
<p id="i1m7Ly"><strong>2019 Stability Rankings</strong><br><strong>1. Alabama – </strong>Nick Saban (146-21, 12 years)<br><strong>2. Kentucky – </strong>Mark Stoops (36-39, 6 years)<br><strong>3. Georgia – </strong>Kirby Smart (32-10, 3 years)<br><strong>4. Texas A&M -- </strong>Jimbo Fisher (9-4, 1 year)<br><strong>5. Florida – </strong>Dan Mullen (10-3, 1 year)<br><strong>6. LSU – </strong>Ed Orgeron (25-9, 3 years)<br><strong>7. Mississippi St. – </strong>Joe Moorhead (8-5, 1 year)<br><strong>8. Missouri – </strong>Barry Odom (19-19, 3 years)<br><strong>9. Vanderbilt – </strong>Derek Mason (24-38, 6 years)<br><strong>10. South Carolina – </strong>Will Muschamp (22-17, 3 years)<br><strong>11. Tennessee – </strong>Jeremy Pruitt (5-7, 1 year)<br><strong>12. Auburn – </strong>Gus Malzahn (53-27, 6 years)<br><strong>13. Ole Miss – </strong>Matt Luke (11-13, 2 years)<br><strong>14. Arkansas – </strong>Chad Morris (2-10, 1 year) </p>
<p id="ncEqFV"><strong>More Stable</strong><br><strong>Alabama: </strong>Saban, the dude the Crimson Tide hired to replace Shula after firing the latter at the end of the 2006 regular season, has reshaped the college football world in his image. As in most things, Alabama wins this little thought exercise.</p>
<p id="DML0tk"><strong>Kentucky: </strong>The Wildcats might not actually be that far behind, though, if we’re talking about completely righting a program’s ship. Stoops is coming off Kentucky’s first 10-win season in more than 40 years and, even before the breakthrough, he had gotten the team around a corner with two straight bowl games and impressive recruiting returns.</p>
<p id="5F8mzn"><strong>Mississippi St.: </strong>Croom was two years away from a mild bounceback season…but also three years away from getting canned. While Moorhead may not have exactly blown the doors off during his first season in Starkville, he was at least impressive enough to earn an extension and leave a sense of steadiness after the Mullen changeover.</p>
<p id="ppiXEd"><strong>Texas A&M: </strong>Fisher was a fairly sizable coup for the Aggies coming from Florida St. and turned in a decent first year in charge. Franchione, four years removed from jumping from Alabama to the Big 12, was coming off a losing season in which the Aggies started the year ranked No. 17 but about to have a turnaround 2006…only to bow out after a mediocre 2007. </p>
<p id="WCXmkt"><strong>Vanderbilt: </strong>Johnson and Mason are fairly similar in that they both haven’t won all that much but, with Vanderbilt goggles on, have done enough to keep the job. Mason, at least, is coming off two bowl games in three years. Plus, he and Stoops are the deans of the SEC East coaches at this point…which is pretty crazy to think about.</p>
<p id="qIKDyR"><strong>About the Same</strong><br><strong>Florida: </strong>Meyer came from Utah and went 9-3. Mullen, who was on Meyer’s staff, came from within the conference and went 10-3. Both gave the impression of a program trending up after their first year in Gainesville, though it’s not very likely that Mullen can replicate Meyer’s second season success: a BCS Championship.</p>
<p id="hSe4WB"><strong>Georgia: </strong>Smart is a year removed from a title game appearance but, in the fickle world of the SEC, the shine is off a little bit after a step back to 11-3. Richt was in much the same place going into 2006, still riding off the strength of a 13-1 season in 2002 but kind of stagnating with 10- and 11-win campaigns the next three years.</p>
<p id="lM61qv"><strong>LSU: </strong>Miles took over for that Saban character and nudged the Tigers up from 9-3 to 11-2. Orgeron ended up taking over for Miles and, despite fairly persistent rumblings throughout his tenure that he was just one bad loss away from the hot seat (well, one <em>more</em> bad loss…remember Troy?), he seems to be in the fans’ good graces heading into 2019 after finishing last year ranked No. 6. And Miles is at Kansas, which is…good for him?</p>
<p id="hsv5Ze"><strong>Ole Miss: </strong>Speaking of Orgeron, he was coming off a pretty awful season in 2006 but still banking on his reputation as an ace ‘cruiter. He only made it two more losing years. Luke has had a bit more success – and a bit more tether, cleaning up Hugh Freeze’s mess – but his grip on the job could be tenuous as well if things don’t turn soon.</p>
<p id="CR6sHg"><strong>Missouri: </strong>Brad Smith and 2005 helped save Pinkel at Missouri, and look how that turned out. Odom’s future at his alma mater seemed less than certain after his first 1 ½ years, but the second 1 ½ have been confidence-building and the Tigers look to be on the upswing heading into 2019. Plus, this whole NCAA deal seems to have rallied the administration and fans to he and Missouri’s cause. All in all, he’s got the program in a clean, safe state.</p>
<p id="LXKok8"><strong>Less Stable</strong><br><strong>Arkansas: </strong>Nutt hit the skids with two straight losing seasons, only to turn it around and go 18-8 the next two years, then leave for Ole Miss. Morris came to Fayetteville with much fanfare, but his first year was basically unsalvageable in any way. At least the 2019 recruiting class was strong.</p>
<p id="PcyAzx"><strong>Auburn: </strong>Malzahn went to the BCS Championship in his first year in charge, taking the Tigers from worst to first, and seemed like the savior. After toggling between seven and eight wins for the past five years – with a brief top-10 respite in 2017 – the seat is warm. Tuberville can commiserate. Going into 2006, he was a season removed from an undefeated run that Auburn fans still claim as a national championship and about to put up an another 11-win campaign. But two years and a 5-7 2008 later, he was gone.</p>
<p id="GjcXQA"><strong>South Carolina: </strong>Lou Holtz had bottomed out, and Spurrier immediately brought the Head Ball Coach cachet and accompanying anticipation to the other Columbia, along with a modest uptick in results. Muschamp has presided over a pleasantly mediocre opening to his time with the Gamecocks. Not bad, not great.</p>
<p id="Rx10i4"><strong>Tennessee: </strong>Volunteer fans want their program turned around, like, yesterday. So while Pruitt’s 5-7 opener was not a disaster by any stretch, every day longer that Tennessee stays in national irrelevance makes the trigger finger that much itchier. Contrast that with where Fulmer stood 13 years ago, less than a decade removed from a national title and, despite coming off the first losing season of his time in Knoxville, still coasting off the good feelings of three double-digit win campaigns in the four years prior to that.</p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/7/4/20681590/sec-coaching-stability-college-footballDavid Morrison2019-06-20T11:00:00-05:002019-06-20T11:00:00-05:00Positions of Opportunity for the 2019 Missouri Tigers
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Missouri at Alabama" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a_MQcFuK6Xhe6OxP4nBlUfVWHnY=/0x0:4280x2853/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/64043469/usa_today_11439062.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Missouri’s safety picture, again, appears to have a good deal of blurring around the edges. Can someone like Tyree Gillespie provide a little clarity? | John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Groups like the safeties and defensive ends have a bunch of people returning, but does that necessarily mean they’re settled?</p> <p id="Jk8WWz">Back when I was a beat writer, I called these “positions of need.” You know, positions where Missouri either lost a lot of experience from one year to the next or ended the previous season in an unsettled fashion and still had a “need” to gain stability.</p>
<p id="im1WPd">Now that I’m a public relations professional, I call them “positions of opportunity.” Spots where players have the greatest “opportunity” to carve out new roles for themselves because they’re not set in stone.</p>
<p id="TYTp9y">Here, then, is an accounting of the Tigers’ position groups heading into 2019, ranked from most “opportunity” to least. The non-class and height/weight numbers in the parentheses are the snaps per game each player logged last year on offense or defense. Not special teams.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="KEOGDb">
<p id="uBqg9N"><strong>Safety</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>71.8<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Khalil Oliver (Sr., 6-1/210; 38.5)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Ronnell Perkins (Sr., 6-0/205; 21.9); Joshuah Bledsoe (Jr., 6-0/205; 39.9); Tyree Gillespie (Jr., 6-0/210; 30.7); Jordan Ulmer (Jr., 6-2/190; 7.0); Jalani Williams (Fr., 6-2/175) </p>
<p id="BNcHwc">Seems strange that safety would be the Tigers’ position of greatest opportunity with 72 percent of its snaps returning, right? Well consider, first, that the guy with the most returning snaps in the group – Oliver – wasn’t starting in the spring. Consider, too, that for the past two years, Missouri has employed a revolving-door ethos at safety in which four guys basically all play the same amount over the course of the season, falling into and out of favor week over week and even mid-game. Consider, three, that while Perkins, Bledsoe and Gillespie all have shown promising signs throughout their career, none of them has exactly screamed “stick me out there for 80 snaps a game and never take me out!” with their play. Consider, four, that the Tigers are also experimenting with what they want to do with that 11th defender, whether it’s going to be a more traditional safety, a more traditional linebacker or a little from Column A, little from Column B. And, five, that Missouri’s most compelling high school prospect from the Class of 2019 – Williams – is coming off shoulder surgery, so we don’t know what that will do to his immediate development. Throw that all into the blender, and you’ve got a position that is in serious need of some clarity heading into the fall.</p>
<p id="1n2RRZ">———</p>
<p id="JEQE7Y"><strong>Defensive Tackle</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>36.3<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Jordan Elliott (Jr., 6-4/315; 28.8)<strong> </strong><br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Kobie Whiteside (Jr., 6-1/310; 13.7); Markell Utsey (Jr., 6-4/295; 9.0); Chris Daniels (Jr., 6-4/315); Tyrell Jacobs (Sr., 6-4/285; 5.7); Antar Thompson (Jr., 6-5/300; 4.5)<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="T3OKRJ">I almost put this as a position of less opportunity than the ends because at least the tackles have what looks to be one plus starter ready to go in Elliott. But they just lost too much with Terry Beckner, Walter Palmore and Rashad Brandon all heading out. And there isn’t much in the way of experienced help to go along with Elliott. Whiteside’s been in and out of the rotation for the past two years. Utsey played his most as a true freshman in 2016 and lost most of last year to injury. Jacobs has been a depth-builder up until now. Maybe Daniels can give the Tigers a JUCO bump and come on strong? A whole lot of “I dunno” all over the line for Missouri heading into 2019.<strong> </strong></p>
<p id="gS93zu"><strong>———</strong></p>
<p id="U51a4P"><strong>Linebacker</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>47.3<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Cale Garrett (Sr., 6-3/230; 57.2)<strong> </strong><br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Nick Bolton (Soph., 6-0/235; 13.9); Gerald Nathan (Fr., 6-1/215); Jacob Trump (Sr., 6-3/230; 4.4); Aubrey Miller (Jr., 6-2/225; 6.5); Jamal Brooks (Jr., 6-1/240; 6.2); Cameron Wilkins (Soph., 6-2/245; 3.0) </p>
<p id="Wg4shl">OK, so here’s my thinking on this one. Yes, the linebackers have only one starter returning like the tackles and yes, you’d think there would be more opportunity with two starting spots up for grabs and a comparable level of readymade experience waiting in the wings. But Missouri is also going to experiment with having that sort of third safety/linebacker hybrid sort of dealie this year, so I figure that takes away one of these starting linebacker slots some of the time. Hence, less opportunity. The guys on the roster, though, look a lot like the tackles, with one plus starter (Garrett), one backup who saw some meaningful game snaps (Bolton) and a bunch of other guys who have barely played on defense. Or, in the case of Nathan and Wilkins, not played at all on defense. Wilkins, remember, is a more experienced H-back than linebacker at his point in the journey. Like Elliott, Garrett is going to have to do some heavy lifting within his position group, at least until things start shaking out a little bit.</p>
<p id="9P8ZOF">———</p>
<p id="Syw5fE"><strong>Defensive End</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>82.4<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Chris Turner (Jr., 6-4/255; 37.7); Tre Williams? (Jr., 6-5/260; 35.3)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Akial Byers (Jr., 6-4/280; 27.4); Trajan Jeffcoat (Soph., 6-3/245; 11.8); Jatorian Hansford (Soph., 6-4/245; 4.1); Sci Martin (Jr., 6-3/225); Franklin Agbasimere (Sr., 6-2/245; 6.9) </p>
<p id="U8hvPt">I put the ends this high on the list, even with 82 percent of their snaps returning, for two reasons. One, what’s the deal with Williams? Still on the roster, but didn’t take part in spring ball. If he ends up not being around anymore, that percentage plummets to 58.5 percent. Plus, he was losing snaps to Byers by the end of last season anyway. Two, none of the guys returning to the position really gave the Tigers that much in terms of production last year. So, even though they have a lot of dudes coming back, they don’t have a lot of dudes who have really etched their name in stone as solutions at this important position. For that reason, it’s open season.</p>
<p id="5ggmO0"><strong>——— </strong></p>
<p id="xSAVNP"><strong>Offensive Line</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>63.5<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms (Sr., 6-5/330; 72.6); Trystan Colon-Castillo (Jr., 6-4/315; 71.4); Yasir Durant (Sr., 6-7/330; 69.5)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Hyrin White (Soph., 6-6/305; 14.4); Larry Borom (Soph., 6-6/340; 9.8); Case Cook (Soph., 6-5/295; 20.8); Mike Ruth (Fr., 6-7/320; 12.5); Bobby Lawrence (Fr., 6-8/300); Javon Foster (Fr., 6-6/315); Xavier Delgado (Fr., 6-5/330; 12.0)</p>
<p id="BDbCvS">The Tigers don’t get to enjoy the sort of line stability luxury that they had last year, when all five starters returned. This time around, they’ve got to find solutions to fill the gaps left by three-year starters Paul Adams and Kevin Pendleton. The good news is they’re also buttressing those inexperienced spots with three-year starters in Wallace-Simms, Colon-Castillo and Durant. Cook was the backup guard of choice last year but left the spring duking it out with Borom for the starting spot, and White has held his spot as Adams’ heir apparent since last fall. That’s the thing with new starters, though. You don’t really know what you’re getting until you see them out there for more than 10 snaps at a time, game after game.</p>
<p id="gIxXaM">———</p>
<p id="geU89s"><strong>Wide Receiver/Tight End</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>67.6<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Albert Okwuegbunam (Jr., 6-5/255; 52.4); Jalen Knox (Soph., 6-0/195; 46.0); Johnathon Johnson (Sr., 5-10/180; 45.5)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Kam Scott (Soph., 6-2/170; 24.0); Daniel Parker (Soph., 6-4/260; 23.7); Jonathan Nance (Sr., 6-0/190); Richaud Floyd (Sr., 5-11/195; 21.7); Dominic Gicinto (Soph., 5-9/180; 10.8); Alex Ofodile (Sr., 6-2/200; 9.0); Brendan Scales (Jr., 6-4/240; 6.5) </p>
<p id="j9UrFv">Here we start getting into the offensive skill positions with embarrassments of options. Emanuel Hall’s size/speed/quickness profile is going to be hard to replace, but Knox got plenty of opportunities to see what it was like last year when Hall was out. Ditto for Scott when Nate Brown was hurt. Johnson’s basically a four-year starter in the slot, and Okwuegbunam was having a possible All-America season before his injury last year. Even that was a bit of a blessing in disguise, though, because the Tigers got to see what Parker had to offer. Throw them all together with the Arkansas transfer Nance, Floyd (if he doesn’t stick at cornerback…he’s listed as a defensive back on the roster right now…), Gicinto and others, and you’ve got plenty of options to recoup what was lost.</p>
<p id="3XDTyU">———</p>
<p id="qPesuL"><strong>Cornerback</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>95.5<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>DeMarkus Acy (Sr., 6-2/195, 57.8); Christian Holmes (Jr., 6-1/200, 43.2)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Adam Sparks (Jr., 6-0/180; 52.8); Jarvis Ware (Soph., 6-1/190; 11.3); Chris Mills (Fr., 6-0/185) </p>
<p id="BKmwxG">Missouri has two possible All-SEC players returning at corner, if Acy can quell the burnt-toast tendencies that reared their ugly head against Oklahoma State and Holmes can dial back the aggression a bit and keep the flags off the field. A bit, I said. Not too much. His borderline pathological physicality is what makes him an effective cover corner. The only intrigue here is whether a healthy Sparks can snipe some snaps off of Acy and Holmes if either struggles (or gets hurt) and if Ware, Mills – or possibly, as we discussed earlier, Richaud Floyd? – can differentiate himself enough in the preseason to get a second look from coaches.</p>
<p id="20NRUW">———</p>
<p id="TAg0wh"><strong>Running Back</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>71.2<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Larry Rountree (Jr., 5-10/210; 34.4)<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Tyler Badie (Soph., 5-9/190; 19.6); Simi Bakare (Soph., 5-11/205; 6.3)</p>
<p id="5TEhQ7">The Tigers have a 1,200-yard rusher returning, plus a very capable third-down back in Badie. Losing Damarea Keener-Crockett leaves some uncertainty – as well as carries up for grabs – but Badie showed enough last year to get a longer look, Bakare got some meaningful snaps as a true freshman, and Anthony Watkins could get some run as well.</p>
<p id="S7FJQb">———</p>
<p id="gbwAyi"><strong>Quarterback</strong><br><strong>Pct. Snaps Returning: </strong>6.27<br><strong>Starters Returning: </strong>Nah.<br><strong>Rotation Candidates: </strong>Kelly Bryant (Sr., 6-3/225)</p>
<p id="7xBhul">And he’s it. Which is why, even with only 63 snaps returning – and 15 of those moving out to wide receiver for the foreseeable future – this doesn’t rank high on the “unsettled positions” chart. Plus, behind the graduate transfer, Missouri has (maybe?) TCU transfer Shawn Robinson and definitely Taylor Powell, who was Drew Lock’s garbage-time replacement last year.</p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/6/20/18691628/missouri-football-2019-positions-opportunity-needs-analysisDavid Morrison2019-06-13T09:00:00-05:002019-06-13T09:00:00-05:00Charting the Gradual Disappearance of D-Line ‘Zou
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Georgia at Missouri" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/bK6ZNwyYzOfEbVsabHWbebjxVrY=/0x0:2124x1416/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63999776/usa_today_11301207.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Whatever happened to D-Line ‘Zou? Maybe Jordan Elliott can help bring it back. | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>There was a time, not so long ago, when Missouri had one of the most fearsome and productive defensive lines in the FBS.</p> <p id="XtlmEt">You all remember 2014, don’t you?</p>
<p id="vwdlTf">That year in which Missouri regularly trotted out three defensive ends (Shane Ray, Charles Harris and Markus Golden) who would eventually go in the top 60 picks of the NFL Draft and had a complement of experienced, productive options including Harold Brantley, Lucas Vincent, Matt Hoch and Josh Augusta on the interior as well?</p>
<p id="5KQQu9">During that magical season, a defensive lineman recorded a tackle — counting solos as 1.0 and assists as 0.5 — every 15.6 snaps, a tackle for loss every 52.1, a sack every 99.0 and a quarterback hurry every 108.4.</p>
<p id="egBG0G">This core played no small part in helping the Tigers finish 23rd in the FBS in yards allowed per game, 16th in yards per play, 17th in yards per pass attempt against, 24th in yards per rush against, 11th in sacks per game and 13th in tackles for loss per game.</p>
<p id="qBtba1">Wasn’t that fun?</p>
<p id="cOf3cj">Now fast forward to 2018. The Tigers’ defensive linemen averaged a tackle every 21.3 snaps, a TFL every 84.9, sack every 217.6 and a hurry every 133.9. Nationally, they ranked 62nd in yards allowed per game, 68th in yards per play, 92nd in yards per pass attempt, 32nd in yards per rush, 71st in sacks per game and 80th in tackles for loss per game.</p>
<p id="Xy8lB3">So it’s not a matter of the havoc-causing plays getting redistributed to the back two levels of the defense. They’re just not happening anymore.</p>
<p id="ZCwHVE">Let’s take a look at the gradual decline, shall we?</p>
<p id="JhW0tP"><strong>Defensive Line</strong></p>
<p id="futfGT"><strong>Snaps per Tackle</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>21.3<br><strong>2017: </strong>23.4<br><strong>2016: </strong>21.1<br><strong>2015: </strong>18.2<br><strong>2014: </strong>15.6<br><strong>2013: </strong>16.1</p>
<p id="qXtGum"><strong>Snaps per Tackle for Loss</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>84.9<br><strong>2017: </strong>68.4<br><strong>2016: </strong>74.5<br><strong>2015: </strong>52.2<br><strong>2014: </strong>52.1<br><strong>2013: </strong>56.3</p>
<p id="4uDQBt"><strong>Snaps per Sack</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>217.6<br><strong>2017: </strong>151.9<br><strong>2016: </strong>136.8<br><strong>2015: </strong>163.2<br><strong>2014: </strong>99.0<br><strong>2013: </strong>105.4</p>
<p id="IWaIZI"><strong>Snaps per Hurry</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>133.9<br><strong>2017: </strong>135.6<br><strong>2016: </strong>125.4<br><strong>2015: </strong>108.8<br><strong>2014: </strong>108.4<br><strong>2013: </strong>80.1</p>
<p id="7XMqzQ">———</p>
<p id="T4BeRl"><strong>Ends</strong></p>
<p id="FuUtNk"><strong>Snaps per Tackle</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>23.9<br><strong>2017: </strong>22.5<br><strong>2016: </strong>19.2<br><strong>2015: </strong>17.0<br><strong>2014: </strong>13.9<br><strong>2013: </strong>13.9</p>
<p id="yLNIkL"><strong>Snaps per Tackle for Loss</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>123.9<br><strong>2017: </strong>63.5<br><strong>2016: </strong>77.9<br><strong>2015: </strong>42.9<br><strong>2014: </strong>42.5<br><strong>2013: </strong>40.8</p>
<p id="199tpT"><strong>Snaps per Sack</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>276.3<br><strong>2017: </strong>135.7<br><strong>2016: </strong>103.8<br><strong>2015: </strong>104.6<br><strong>2014: </strong>73.6<br><strong>2013: </strong>69.8</p>
<p id="A4JMv5"><strong>Snaps per Hurry</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>128.3<br><strong>2017: </strong>98.4<br><strong>2016: </strong>103.8<br><strong>2015: </strong>76.0<br><strong>2014: </strong>89.6<br><strong>2013: </strong>54.9</p>
<p id="WzUh4n">———</p>
<p id="ISsUfA"><strong>Tackles</strong></p>
<p id="WH6H1u"><strong>Snaps per Tackle</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>19.0<br><strong>2017: </strong>24.6<br><strong>2016: </strong>23.5<br><strong>2015: </strong>19.8<br><strong>2014: </strong>17.8<br><strong>2013: </strong>20.0</p>
<p id="LekU3Z"><strong>Snaps per Tackle for Loss</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>63.6<br><strong>2017: </strong>74.7<br><strong>2016: </strong>71.5<br><strong>2015: </strong>67.7<br><strong>2014: </strong>68.4<br><strong>2013: </strong>106.2</p>
<p id="yHnu7w"><strong>Snaps per Sack</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>177.4<br><strong>2017: </strong>174.2<br><strong>2016: </strong>199.4<br><strong>2015: </strong>397.8<br><strong>2014: </strong>155.9<br><strong>2013: </strong>286.0</p>
<p id="8yMrwa"><strong>Snaps per Hurry</strong><br><strong>2018: </strong>140.4<br><strong>2017: </strong>228.6<br><strong>2016: </strong>157.8<br><strong>2015: </strong>198.9<br><strong>2014: </strong>139.2<br><strong>2013: </strong>185.9</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="JXLuos">
<p id="pGyj0I">The silver lining? The defensive tackle play actually made a pretty appreciable improvement last year. Its activity levels were right about in line with those halcyon days of 2014 and, in the tackles for loss category, were actually better.</p>
<p id="JfzxHv">Yes, losing Terry Beckner and Walter Palmore from that group hurts, but Jordan Elliott was no slouch, recording a tackle every 18.7 snaps, TFL every 46.8, sack every 124.7 and hurry every 187.0 — all but the hurry mark were better than the team interior lineman average.</p>
<p id="woOwQ0">Kobie Whiteside was adequate in limited duty last season, and Chris Daniels is an intriguing addition as well. Bottom line: the tackles should be good to go, even with three regular rotational players graduated.</p>
<p id="ABe3BT">What’s missing is the heat off the edge. Across the board, the Tigers’ ends were about 72 percent worse in snaps per tackle, 204 percent in snaps per TFL, 296 percent worse in snaps per sack and 134 percent worse in snaps per hurry than the 2013-14 ends.</p>
<p id="tnz6Bo">There’s not much relief in sight, either, unless holdovers Chris Turner, Akial Byers, Tre Williams (maybe?), Trajan Jeffcoat and Jatorian Hansford make some significant strides.</p>
<p id="CxbIft">Or maybe Sci Martin can shake things up a little bit.</p>
<p id="Ejkmzp">Here’s the work, if you wanted to see it:</p>
<div id="BbMB6j"><iframe width="100%" height="625" frameborder="0" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vR0WZdguQGJQxiXF8CFSfnPKUZC0ic9h8nL3IkREGLIRkddj-4NQo2-wRePBBLi1Z7JWISx60AXzA3S/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></div>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/6/13/18663344/missouri-football-defensive-line-regression-d-line-zouDavid Morrison2019-06-06T09:00:00-05:002019-06-06T09:00:00-05:00Three 2019 Missouri Tigers Who Can Make Their Marks on the Record Books
<figure>
<img alt="Kentucky v Missouri" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_oaRBQywXo6t5qG7pCvNUUEYQQ4=/0x0:3583x2389/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63961286/1054357362.jpg.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Cale Garrett, a Barry Odom-style linebacker in toughness, tenacity and tackling, has the chance to pass Odom on the Tigers’ all-time career tackles list this season. | Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How likely is it that we’ll see Devin West’s record fall this year? How about Jeff Wolfert’s?</p> <p id="fWnVlr">We here at RockMNation have made a cottage industry out of identifying and discussing <span>Johnathon Johnson</span>’s chances at becoming Missouri’s all-time career receiving yards record holder.</p>
<p id="5x8re1"><a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/5/14/18530083/will-johnathon-johnson-become-missouris-all-time-leading-receiver">Again</a> and <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/5/16/18626762/handicapping-johnathon-johnsons-pursuit-of-the-mu-career-receiving-yards-record">again</a>.</p>
<p id="SFmRRx">But let’s move off of <span>Johnson</span> for a moment and talk about three of his 2019 teammates who could make record book marks of their own this season.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Arkansas v Missouri" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OQtisD1c9KdmzNbO8C4dRbCXQT4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13465959/1071516762.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Rountree has a fighter’s chance of breaking Missouri’s single-season rushing record.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="v92Eef"><strong>Mark: </strong>1578 rushing yards<br><strong>Set: </strong>Devin West, 1998<br><strong>The Challenger: </strong>Larry Rountree</p>
<p id="POfDKh"><strong>How Likely Is It?</strong><br>Semi? Rountree gained 1216 yards on 225 carries in 13 games last year, or 93.5 yards a game and 5.4 yards a carry. West gained his 1578 yards on 283 carries in 11 games in 1998, or 143.5 yards a game and 5.6 yards a carry. One of the things working in Rountree’s favor is, obviously, he is guaranteed at least one more game. Bowl games didn’t count for official stats back in West’s time so, if the Tigers qualify for a bowl and the NCAA ban gets lifted, Rountree could conceivably have two more games to run up his stats. Or, with an SEC East championship, three. So over 12 games, Rountree would have to average 131.6 yards a game to break West’s record and, over 13, 121.5. Another thing working in Rountree’s favor this season is that <span>Damarea Crockett</span> decided to forgo his final year. Yes, <span>Tyler Badie</span> will get his carries, but Rountree comes into the season as the definite No. 1 back. He couldn’t say that last year. In the six games in which Rountree got the plurality of the Tigers’ running back snaps last year – Tennessee-Martin, Purdue, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma State – he averaged 22.7 carries and 122 yards, including a 100-yard trifecta to end the season. What was that magic number for 13 games again? Oh yeah, 121.5.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Wyoming v Missouri" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U_PTbRYGDdnZ-SKW6Wmz1p9iLac=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/13405285/1029555174.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Garrett needs 99 tackles to surpass his coach’s career total at Mizzou</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="xjbTJy"><strong>Mark: </strong>362 tackles<br><strong>Set: </strong>Barry Odom, 1996-99 (7th-highest total in Mizzou history)<br><strong>The Challenger: </strong><span>Cale Garrett</span></p>
<p id="uROdcH"><strong>How Likely Is It?</strong><br>Very. Kentrell Brothers got oh so close with his spectacular 152-tackle season in 2015, but he wound up five tackles shy of besting his then-defensive coordinator for seventh on the Tigers’ all-time tackles list. Garrett started his pursuit the next year – Odom’s first as a head coach – and he’s got the man in the headset squarely in his crosshairs. Garrett comes into his final season with 264 career tackles, or 99 shy of topping Odom. Garrett has eclipsed that mark in each of the past two seasons, logging 105 stops in 2017 and 112 in 2018. And this year he’s got a less-proven outside linebacker playing alongside him than Terez Hall. That could work to his detriment, as teams may try to run away from the middle of the field and test the edges more. But Garrett is also such a big part of the Tigers’ run-stop gameplan going downhill, as well as an effective play reader and lateral mover, that I don’t anticipate it making much of a dent in his tackles mark. And he is remarkably consistent when it comes to avoiding injuries, so far. In 12 games, he’d have to average fewer than 8.1 tackles a game to fall short of Odom. In 13 games, fewer than 7.5. Garrett has registered at least eight tackles in 14 of 26 games over the past two seasons and hit double digits 10 times. So he’s in pretty good shape to topple the bossman.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Missouri v Arkansas" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZbS_Fu9Yb1grhITw7JFQgS3h-PQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/11644679/878663962.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>McCann needs 87 points to surpass Jeff Wolfert’s career record.</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="nZ6ORO"><strong>Mark: </strong>362 points<br><strong>Set: </strong><span>Jeff Wolfert</span>, 2006-08<br><strong>The Challenger: </strong><span>Tucker McCann</span></p>
<p id="hptwst"><strong>How Likely Is it?</strong><br>Again, very. Remember not too long ago when it was a question as to whether McCann could ever get out of his own head long enough to even hold down the starting placekicker job. Well, the past two years have erased those concerns. McCann has been true on 78 percent of his field goals, knocked through 102 extra points and averaged 109.5 points a season. He sits at 276 total entering his senior year, meaning he would need 87 to unseat Wolfert. McCann passed that during the Vanderbilt game last season, with a full three games to go. In order to come up short, McCann would have to average fewer than 7.08 points in a 12-game season and fewer than 6.54 in 13. McCann has scored 7 or more points in all but seven of the 25 games he’s played – he was benched against Idaho in 2018 – over the past two seasons. And, if McCann is only scoring 7 points a game, it probably means Missouri’s offense is in trouble. He has accounted for 24.4 percent of the Tigers’ scoring in games he’s played over the past two years, which would come out to 28.7 points per game if he’s limited to only 7 per game and the proportion stays the same. That would be a drop of 23 percent from the past two years. The more pertinent question may be if McCann can chase Wolfert’s single-season mark of 133 set in 2008. McCann did come up with 123 last year, after all. That’s probably a little farfetched, seeing as how Missouri’s scoring will probably dip a little this year and the Tigers could also very well improve on a pretty pedestrian 61.3 touchdown percentage in the red zone. That all means fewer chances for 3-pointers.</p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/6/6/18654441/missouri-football-2019-season-preview-record-breakers-larry-rountree-cale-garrett-tucker-mccannDavid Morrison2019-05-30T09:00:00-05:002019-05-30T09:00:00-05:00Albert Okwuegbunam is back at Missouri. What kind of year can we expect out of him?
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Memphis at Missouri" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hqWks01R5BgUApta8LxSgIP_K4U=/122x0:2513x1594/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63920117/usa_today_11480504.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Albert Okwuegbunam’s 2018 season ended after nine games. What would a 12- or 13-game junior season look like for him in 2019? | Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A bit of a dive into the potential of the Tigers’ #TightEndPassGame signal-bearer for 2019</p> <p id="ucB7JE">I had so much fun trying to project out <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/5/16/18626762/handicapping-johnathon-johnsons-pursuit-of-the-mu-career-receiving-yards-record">Johnathon Johnson’s 2019 season</a> that I decided to circle back to the pseudoscience umbrella I’ve propped up and apply it to something that truly hits near and dear to my heart:</p>
<p id="x1vWcG">#TightEndPassGame.</p>
<p id="A9qD4R">Missouri’s leader in this proud tradition for 2019 will likely be <span>Albert Okwuegbunam</span>, as he was in 2017-18 as well.</p>
<p id="kn7acA">You likely know that Okwuegbunam put together 43 catches for 466 yards and six touchdowns on 60 targets last season. You also likely know that he was on pace for 62 catches, 673 yards and nine touchdowns on 87 targets last year before a broken scapula suffered while blocking against Florida cravenly stole the final four games out from under him.</p>
<p id="erKnwI">Pity, that.</p>
<p id="UDrvyj">But now he’s back for 2019. And we’re here to try and see what kind of season he can put together for the Tigers.</p>
<p id="CURGrp">To do that, we need to consider some things.</p>
<h2 id="Co5xr0">1) How many passing yards will Missouri get this year?</h2>
<p id="Rdq7Pa">In the <span>Johnson</span> post, looking at the Tigers’ upcoming pass defenses and how they’ve behaved against certain classes of defense in the Barry Odom era, I came to an estimate of 3656 yards over 12 games and 3935 over 13.</p>
<p id="rGlnR2">I think those estimates are kind of high, since <span>Kelly Bryant</span> is probably not a stat-sheet-stuffing passer like <span>Drew Lock</span> was, but let’s go with them anyway.</p>
<h2 id="l9rilS">2) What percentage of the pass game will belong to the tight ends?</h2>
<p id="hpYizp">Over the past three seasons, tight ends have averaged 19.4 percent of the targets, 21 percent of the catches, 17.7 percent of the yards and 29.9 percent of the touchdowns in the Tigers’ offense.</p>
<p id="xnGdrG">That ranges from highs of 23.5 percent of targets, 26 percent of catches and 20 percent of yards in 2018 to lows of 16.3, 16.2 and 17.1 in 2017.</p>
<p id="RFRg96">Remember, also, that in Bryant’s one year as a starter at Clemson, tight ends made up only 9 percent of the team’s catches and 10 percent of its pass yards. So throwing to the tight end isn’t necessarily second nature to him, although different offenses call for different plays to go to different personnel a different percentage of the time blah blah blah.</p>
<h2 id="lKMXjI">3) What do the returning receivers have to say about all this?</h2>
<p id="Pfk2eY">Again, from 2016 through 2018, the percentage of returning production from the Tigers’ wide receivers has actually had a meaningful impact on the rate of production for the team’s tight ends.</p>
<p id="rk5Hxx">In 2018, for instance, Missouri only returned about 54-59 percent of its receiver production, across the board. And the tight ends flourished. In 2017, it returned about 78-86 percent across the board, and the tight ends languished.</p>
<p id="h1UFnx">This year, the Tigers are set to return about 63-71 percent of their receiver production across the board. It’s actually a fairly analogous situation to 2016, when they returned about 65-70 percent in targets, catches and yards (not counting a touchdown percentage anomaly) for their wideouts while also returning their top tight end in <span>Sean Culkin</span>.</p>
<h2 id="Okt9oJ">4) How much of the pie does the top tight end generally take?</h2>
<p id="dsZSDc">Over the past three years, Missouri’s top tight end has accounted for 54.7 percent of all tight end targets, 58.9 percent of catches, 58.7 percent of yards and 58.6 percent of touchdowns.</p>
<p id="9tDYYk">Over the past two years, with Okwuegbunam in charge, those numbers have ticked up to 58, 63.7, 62.3 and 70.8.</p>
<p id="gjwXyK">Not counting the games he missed last year, the percentages are 63.8, 71.3, 67.5 and 77.3.</p>
<p id="iWTG7K">Given all of those things, I’ve got three different sets of predictions for how #TightEndPassGame as a whole and Okwuegbunam, personally, will do this year:</p>
<p id="0okOox"><strong>2016-18 Model</strong><br><strong>12 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>82 targets, 52 catches, 664 yards, 10 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>45 targets, 31 catches, 390 yards, 6 TD </p>
<p id="Kl4Vom"><strong>13 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>89 targets, 56 catches, 714 yards, 11 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>49 targets, 33 catches, 419 yards, 6 TD </p>
<p id="lBlzMV">———</p>
<p id="BUcZBc"><strong>2017-18 Model</strong><br><strong>12 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>82 targets, 52 catches, 664 yards, 10 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>48 targets, 33 catches, 413 yards, 7 TD </p>
<p id="hkfEr1"><strong>13 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>89 targets, 56 catches, 714 yards, 11 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>51 targets, 36 catches, 445 yards, 8 TD </p>
<p id="M5bsbt">———</p>
<p id="5KtXOM"><strong>2017-18 Okwuegbunam Games Played Model</strong><br><strong>12 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>82 targets, 52 catches, 664 yards, 10 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>53 targets, 37 catches, 448 yards, 8 TD </p>
<p id="LRPdmQ"><strong>13 games</strong><br><strong>Tight Ends: </strong>89 targets, 56 catches, 714 yards, 11 TD<br><strong>Okwuegbunam: </strong>57 targets, 40 catches, 482 yards, 8 TD </p>
<p id="mhFC0h">So, basically, from 31-390-6 at the bottom end to 40-482-8 at the top.</p>
<p id="qXQSIh">I think that’s pretty fair. Last year’s fantastic first nine games were a bit of a happy confluence of Derek Dooley harnessing Okwuegbunam’s power, teams not planning for him and the team’s other top option (<span>Emanuel Hall</span>) being in and out for big parts of five or six of those games.</p>
<p id="qQBTQL">With a resurgent <span>Johnathon Johnson</span> and probably more trust in tertiary options like <span>Jalen Knox</span> and <span>Kam Scott</span>, you’d expect to see Okwuegbunam’s numbers come back to earth a little bit this year.</p>
<p id="YA3FqQ">Or maybe I’m completely wrong and he’ll be a 1,000-yard receiver. I wouldn’t be mad at it.</p>
<p id="SYWxvw">Here’s the work, if you wanted to take a peek:</p>
<div id="moYvxQ"><iframe width="100%" height="625" frameborder="0" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTE70Ps9PTLagfOqfFmxng3AIJp1AFL9G8ndgy5hxBceDOVAtCfAvK1qpmGu0PocqVQRGCKoa56PP8o/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false"></iframe></div>
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https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/5/30/18644711/missouri-football-albert-okwuegbunam-2019-season-stats-projectionsDavid Morrison2019-05-23T10:00:00-05:002019-05-23T10:00:00-05:00A six-pack of sneaky important players for the 2019 Missouri Tigers
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Missouri at South Carolina" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gsp_lKoPsyLqKgdEvRmoGWlxrUg=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/63885766/usa_today_11386249.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Tyler Badie’s still going to get his chances, even if Larry Rountree turns into more of a carry hoarder. | Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>A half-dozen guys who might not be marquee names but could play key roles in the team’s success this year.</p> <p id="USlS2W">So I did something exactly like this <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/2018/5/24/17387354/missouri-football-2018-christian-holmes-nate-brown">last year</a> and ended up with about a 50-50 success rate.</p>
<p id="P4XJdp">Larry Rountree and <span>Christian Holmes</span>? Pretty important for the 2018 Tigers’ fortunes.</p>
<p id="c9QAg4"><span>Nate Brown</span> and <span>Tre Williams</span>? Maybe not so much.</p>
<p id="at6gVO">This year, though, in my continuing efficiency efforts, I’m paring down my list of sneaky important players from eight to six – three on each side of the ball.</p>
<p id="mF7RAh">So, without further ado, here are the six kind of maybe under-the-radar players that could be sneaky important for the 2019 <a href="https://www.rockmnation.com/">Missouri Tigers</a>.</p>
<h2 id="FcCCxR"><strong>Offense</strong></h2>
<p id="AFjb7l"><strong>RB </strong><span><strong>Tyler Badie</strong></span><strong>, Soph.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 89 rushes, 437 yards, 2 TD; 19 targets, 12 catches, 130 yards; 19.6 snaps/game</strong></p>
<p id="ovGg6i">Yes, Rountree is going to be the feature back. And his production and dependability from the past two seasons, not to mention his durable frame, should lead you to believe that he will be a consistently good one.</p>
<p id="JtSw3a">But that doesn’t lessen the importance of Badie as the Tigers’ change-of-pace option. Even in Rountree’s most feature-y games last year, he topped out at around 75 percent of the team’s snaps. In a 70-snap game, that leaves 15-20 up for grabs. And Badie can do a lot with 15-20 snaps, whether it’s toting the rock, catching passes – he was targeted once every 12.4 snaps, Rountree once every 26.3 – or sticking in for pass protection…which he’s surprisingly good at, given that he’s only 5-9, 190. Badie is a different enough back from Rountree that not only can he give the starter a breather, but he can give opposing defenses something entirely new to think about when he’s in.</p>
<p id="JxEND9"><strong>G </strong><span><strong>Larry Borom</strong></span><strong>, Soph.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 5 games on the line, 9.8 snaps/game </strong></p>
<p id="WEy1Cr">I could’ve gone the <span>Hyrin White</span> at tackle route here, but I feel like Borom’s effectiveness will have more bearing on the health of the Missouri offense. Even with Derek Dooley weaving a little more intricacy into the attack last year, it’s still fundamentally a quick-release passing attack. That is, if <span>Kelly Bryant</span> doesn’t have the ball out of his hand in two seconds, something is going wrong, more often than not.</p>
<p id="FQYuur">So a pulling guard that can help the Tigers maintain those 202.4 rushing yards a game from last year will be key. <span>Kevin Pendleton</span> was a three-year starter and a really solid counterbalance to Tre’Vour Wallace-Simms. Borom is gigantic like Simms and, if he proves to be as comparatively nimble, could be a devastating blocker at the second level. He separated himself from the continuity candidate, <span>Case Cook</span>, in the spring, so he’s got a firmly upward trajectory at this point in his career as well. He only got mop-up duty last year, but he’ll be seeing a lot more of the field this season.</p>
<p id="NT2hQ8"><strong>WR </strong><span><strong>Kam Scott</strong></span><strong>, Soph.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 14 targets, 8 catches, 214 yards, 2 TD; 24.0 snaps/game </strong></p>
<p id="zf19Qd">Again, <span>Jalen Knox</span> might have been the more obvious “who is the next <span>Emanuel Hall</span>?” candidate here, but I actually think Scott may be a better answer to that question. He’s got the same low-efficiency, high-reward pedigree as Hall, hitting on only 57.1 percent of his targets but logging 26.8 yards a catch. And, among receivers with more than 10 targets to their names, he actually had the team’s highest passer rating when thrown to last year, at 218.40. Hall’s 210.77 was second.</p>
<p id="QxDLVX">Scott is tall, lanky and quick like Hall, but without the acumen for separation that Hall showed over the past two seasons. That can come with time, experience and more strength to be physical at the line, though. As a freshman, Scott had a tendency to disappear, but he also delivered big catches against Kentucky and Tennessee and a knockout punch against Florida. Definitely something to build on.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Arkansas v Missouri" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ax1ZIlr99EEzQvTa2G0M3zZE58Y=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/16294212/1071520990.jpg.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images</cite>
<figcaption>Missouri needs production from its defensive ends in 2019, and Akial Byers is a good bet to step up.</figcaption>
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<h2 id="KIsgOw"><strong>Defense</strong></h2>
<p id="yyXC8K"><strong>LB </strong><span><strong>Nick Bolton</strong></span><strong>, Soph.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 22 tackles (12 solo, 10 assisted), sack; 7 games on defense, 13.9 snaps/game</strong></p>
<p id="cNzfCS"><span>Andrew Wilson</span> needed his Kentrell Brothers. Michael Scherer needed his…also Kentrell Brothers. <span>Cale Garrett</span> needed his Terez Hall. And now Cale Garrett needs the next Terez Hall. The point is, in order for a Missouri middle linebacker to function, he needs somebody on the outside who can get his back. Bolton can be that guy for Garrett this season. </p>
<p id="YAAslv">Bolton was pretty active as a true freshman, recording at least an assisted tackle once every 6.06 snaps. Garrett’s team-leading 112 stops came once every 6.64 snaps, for reference. And, if we’re to believe coaches when they go on gushing about how important special teams play is, then Bolton should be one of the staff’s favorites: he recorded five solos and an assist on special teams last year. He also saw extensive action against Alabama and got into the regular flow of substitutions against Tennessee and Oklahoma State, so he’s at least a little bit battle-tested. </p>
<p id="WECTEQ"><strong>DE </strong><span><strong>Akial Byers</strong></span><strong>, Jr.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 20 tackles (14 solo, 6 assisted), 1.5 TFL; 27.4 snaps/game</strong></p>
<p id="cgb6sq">Missouri needs more out of its ends. Has to have it. <span>Jordan Elliott</span> can do a little to mitigate inaction from the edges if he’s as active as he showed in flashes last year, and Garrett and (perhaps) Bolton can do a little on the second level as well, but the Tigers just need much more production from their edge rushers. Byers, <span>Chris Turner</span>, Tre Williams and <span>Nate Anderson</span> combined to manage only 85 tackles, 11.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks last year. That’s less impressive than <span>Markus Golden</span> by himself (78 tackles, 20.0 TFL, 10 sacks) in 2014. Coming from four dudes.</p>
<p id="q5dKlR">Byers passed up Williams during the season last year and with Williams suspended? Still? I guess? Coming out of the spring, Byers and <span>Turner</span> are the incumbents off the edge. Byers seems like a more likely breakout candidate to me because his size allows him to play outside or inside – which is enticing – and he was a more highly sought recruit out of high school than <span>Turner</span>. But somebody’s got to show something soon.</p>
<p id="6tKEml"><strong>S </strong><span><strong>Ronnell Perkins</strong></span><strong>, Sr.</strong><br><strong>2018 stats: 18 tackles (12 solo, 6 assisted), 2.0 TFL, sack; 20.1 snaps/game</strong></p>
<p id="PRVVre">Perkins is, again, the trajectory play. And he’s a bit of a strange one, seeing as how he emerged as a redshirt freshman, then receded a bit for the better part of two years only to re-emerge toward the end of his junior season last year. Even last year was a bit of a rollercoaster: 16.5 snaps a game over his first four, 15.0 over his middle four and 38.3 over his last three.</p>
<p id="Rmdv65">He’ll be playing the safety/linebacker hybrid slot like he did last year, which also could translate to more time on the field if whoever inhabits the nominal third linebacker slot (Gerald Nathan? Aubrey Miller? <span>Jacob Trump</span>? <span>Jamal Brooks</span>?) needs some weaning in before he’s ready to play 50-60 snaps a game. The bottom line is somebody has to shake the safety corps awake. <span>Cam Hilton</span> showed glimpses of that last year, but now he’s gone. <span>Joshuah Bledsoe</span> and <span>Tyree Gillespie</span> did as well but, if they’re not getting pushed by somebody, then it’s bad news for the Tigers’ back end. Perkins, in his final year on campus looking to prove something on his way out, could be that pusher, especially if Jalani Williams needs easing back in after his foot surgery. </p>
https://www.rockmnation.com/2019/5/23/18636166/missouri-football-2019-key-players-under-the-radar-previewDavid Morrison