A conversation from earlier this morning.
Beef: I just cant get this thought out of my head that Rhodes really is going to try to go after someone on Sunday after the games this weekend….otherwise the waiting makes very little sense.
BC: Yeah, that seems to be what it is, be it Herman or Fedora or whatever. I really don't know if Fedora's worth the wait, but Herman is. And waiting doesn't backfire at all until the moment when he realizes he wants Odom and Odom's gone. That was supposed to happen yesterday, but ... didn't. Nothing at all happened yesterday. So odd.
Beef: Well…I just don’t know who is doing what at this point. If you are Memphis and Odom is your guy, then you really don’t stand to lose any face if you wait for his other stuff to settle out, and maybe the deadline thing won't work for you. Either Odom is going to get the Mizzou job or isn’t, but if you deadline him and take someone else (and it sounds like they could just go with whoever their interim is) and then we go elsewhere, then you kinda lost.
BC: Right. If you like Odom that much, then willfully settling for someone else when you still might get him is crazy. Like, keep interviewing others and weighing your options (and hey, maybe you find someone you like even more), but deadlines are just funny.
Beef: So…put ‘em in order then
Herman, Fedora, Babers, Dykes, Odom, Wells
BC: PREFERENCE: Herman, Odom, Babers, Fedora, Wells, Dykes
LIKELIHOOD: Odom, and then I have no idea after that. I guess Wells, Herman, Dykes, Fedora, Babers. I think Dino's off the board soon, and ... while you don't wait on Tom Herman if you think there's a 0% chance of getting him, I still can't think the odds are that great.
Beef: I thought you might have Dykes a little higher, but I am about the same. I know ‘Cuse had supposedly been big on Babers
BC: I don't hate Dykes, and there would certainly be a draw to having a guy who might quickly fix the offense in 2016-17 while the defense is still pretty good. But long-term, I'm not sure I love Dykes unless he could turn two "improving O, awesome D" years into good enough recruiting that the D is sustained. Wells is a leap-of-faith guy, but I like him, and I think he did an awesome job of making hires at USU.
Beef: And Babers ahead of Fedora? Is that just a ceiling being higher on Babers?
BC: I guess so, yeah. Fedora makes me paranoid because of how much Southern Miss fell apart after he left. Like, some of that was Southern Miss' hiring, and some of that was a cupboard that was suddenly completely empty. We don't actually know how well he manages a program because he's spent only 4 years at two different spots. And I evidently favor the unknown.
Fedora's two stops have been absurdly similar, btw...
Year 1: 7-6 at USM, 8-4 at UNC
Year 2: 7-6 at USM, 7-6 at UNC
Year 3: 8-5 at USM, 6-7 at UNC
Year 4: 12-2 at USM, 11-1 at UNC
Beef: So compare that to what Dykes has done, with only three years at each stop, but as each has improved the way they have. Comparable? Better in fact?
BC: Again, La. Tech briefly crumbled after he left but rallied. Kinda tough to judge someone for that, but I guess you're just trying to read tea leaves at that point. Nail the first 2-3 years, and then we'll see.
But yeah, it appears I definitely favor unknowns, looking at that list...
Beef: For me, I don’t know as much about Babers, so he is down my list a bit. I think I am probably higher on Dykes (because of his regional background) and Wells (what he did there with all the QB issues). I would also say my #2 and #3 might be a lot closer than I perceive yours to be: Herman, Odom, Dykes, Wells, Babers, Fedora.
NOTE: After this conversation began, Gabe at PowerMizzou expressed a similar "waiting for someone on Saturday" theory. We'll take that as affirmation that we're clearly, incontrovertibly correct.