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Missouri's dud against Kansas State brought some scary flashbacks

Tonight's game is now awfully big, and not even from a win-loss standpoint.

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports @MizzouHoops Falls in First Game of CBE Hall of Fame Classic
The Trib: Kansas State pummels Missouri in CBE Hall of Fame Classic semifinal
KC Star: Cold shooting dooms Mizzou in 66-42 loss to K-State in CBE Classic
Post-Dispatch: Frigid first half dooms MU against Kansas State
The Missourian: Missouri basketball's frustrations mount in blowout loss to Kansas State
PowerMizzou: KO'd in KC

Your Trifecta: Puryear-Isabell-VanLeer. Freshman, sophomore, freshman.

Season totals: Puryear 7, VanLeer 4, Phillips 3, Wright 3, Clark 2, Isabell 2, Walton 2, Woods 1. Freshmen 16, sophomores 5, juniors 3.

Missouri has another game tonight, so we can quickly pretend as if this game never happened. Alright, go team!

Kansas State 66, Missouri 42

Kansas State
Pace (No. of Possessions) 62.6
Points Per Possession (PPP) 0.67 1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS) 0.76 1.16
2-PT FG% 36.1% 42.5%
3-PT FG% 21.1% 23.5%
FT% 40.0% 76.9%
True Shooting % 35.4% 48.2%
FTA/FGA 18.2% 45.6%
Mizzou Kansas State
Assists 10 11
Steals 5 8
Turnovers 13 8
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.15 2.38
Mizzou Kansas State
Expected Offensive Rebounds 14.4 13.7
Offensive Rebounds 8 13
Difference -6.4 -0.7
  • Remember how Missouri hit 60%+ in True Shooting % twice in a row to start the season? We're going to call this a course correction. Well, that, and a "playing against a strong defense" correction.
  • Missouri's defense was actually pretty good aside from the "still fouling too much" part (something KSU somehow wasn't afflicted with, ahem), but ... man oh man ... this was one of the worst offensive performances we've seen in the Kim Anderson era. And I realize that's saying something. Awful shooting, poor ball-handling, less than no presence on the offensive glass. That's a different kind of trifecta.
  • But on the bright side, KSU also shot poorly, and Missouri actually just about broke even on the defensive glass. So it wasn't all bad!

Mizzou Player Stats

(Definitions at the bottom of the post.)

AdjGS GmSc/Min Line
Kevin Puryear 16.0 0.52 31 Min, 9 Pts (4-9 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 Reb (1 Off), 1 Blk, 2 PF
Tramaine Isabell 12.5 1.04 12 Min, 4 Pts (2-3 FG), 1 Reb, 1 Stl
Cullen VanLeer 10.7 0.63 17 Min, 6 Pts (2-5 FG, 2-5 3PT), 3 Reb, 2 PF
Wes Clark 7.8 0.30 26 Min, 5 Pts (2-9 FG, 1-5 3PT), 2 Reb, 6 Ast, 1 TO, 2 PF
Namon Wright 7.5 0.33 23 Min, 5 Pts (1-6 FG, 1-5 3PT, 2-2 FT), 4 Reb, 1 Stl, 2 Blk, 2 TO, 1 PF
Russell Woods 6.9 0.36 19 Min, 4 Pts (2-3 FG), 1 Reb (1 Off), 3 PF
Terrence Phillips 0.0 0.00 24 Min, 6 Pts (3-8 FG, 0-2 3PT), 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 1 Stl, 5 TO, 2 PF
Jimmy Barton 0.0 0.00 1 Min, 0 Pts
D'Angelo Allen -1.3 -0.08 16 Min, 0 Pts (0-3 FG), 3 Reb (3 Off), 2 Stl, 2 TO, 1 PF
Ryan Rosburg -1.9 -0.27 7 Min, 0 Pts (0-0 FG, 0-2 FT), 1 Reb (1 Off), 1 Ast, 3 PF
Jakeenan Gant -6.3 -0.90 7 Min, 0 Pts (0-2 FG, 0-1 3PT), 1 Reb, 1 Blk, 4 PF
K.J. Walton -12.9 -0.76 17 Min, 3 Pts (1-7 FG, 0-1 3PT, 1-4 FT), 3 Reb (2 Off), 1 Ast, 3 TO, 2 PF
Player Usage% Floor% Touches/
%Pass %Shoot %Fouled %T/O
Kevin Puryear 18% 38% 1.2 0% 79% 21% 0%
Tramaine Isabell 14% 61% 0.8 0% 100% 0% 0%
Cullen VanLeer 16% 34% 0.9 0% 100% 0% 0%
Wes Clark 21% 34% 5.5 78% 20% 0% 2%
Namon Wright 21% 19% 1.4 0% 58% 23% 19%
Russell Woods 9% 61% 0.5 0% 100% 0% 0%
Terrence Phillips 30% 24% 3.2 48% 32% 0% 20%
D'Angelo Allen 17% 0% 1.0 0% 60% 0% 40%
Ryan Rosburg 7% 32% 3.7 71% 0% 29% 0%
Jakeenan Gant 16% 0% 0.9 0% 100% 0% 0%
K.J. Walton 38% 14% 3.8 28% 34% 23% 15%
  • One of the things we found encouraging about the opening contests was how few liabilities Missouri seemed to have. After a season full of negative AdjGS numbers, there were almost none in the first two games and only a small handful against Xavier. But in this game, Allen and Rosburg were slight liabilities, and Gant and Walton had absolutely atrocious games. Gant fouled four times in seven minutes (but still managed to yank up, and miss, another 3-pointer, approximately his 117th in a row), and Walton forced up shots, missed free throws, and turned the ball over three times. That he hit -12.9 on the AdjGS scale while grabbing two offensive rebounds and dishing an assist is pretty impressive. Regardless, these four players took about 20 points off of the board on Monday. That's tough to do.
  • Meanwhile, Clark, Wright, and Phillips: 16 points on 6-for-23 shooting. Yikes. Phillips is clearly going to have some turnover issues as he tunes his speed to what he can actually get away with doing, but wow, that's some poor shooting. And Clark's only hit from 3-point range was an odd-looking rainbow. If this was a course correction in the FG% department ... well ... it might have been too much of one. Maybe that will say happy things about how Missouri shoots tonight against Northwestern.
  • Steady, unassuming work from Tramaine Isabell. That he got into the Trifecta was more a product of everybody else messing up, but I still think we're seeing signs of growth from him this year.
  • I really, really like Kevin Puryear and Cullen VanLeer. (And Phillips, and Walton.)


So ... tonight comes the most important game of the season. The first three games of the year were somewhere between neutral and exciting. Last night was a depressing dud, a call back to so many of last year's bad moments. It's up to this team to turn the ship around before some massive slump takes hold. According to Ken Pomeroy's rankings, Northwestern's about as good as Kansas State -- NU's 71st, KSU 68th -- but a) the Wildcats are a better matchup (not good rebounders, for starters), and b) this isn't necessarily about wins and losses. Missouri has to figure out how to bounce back and play reasonably well before last night becomes the norm. It did last year. It can't this year.


AdjGS: a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Usage%: This "estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor" (via). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team's offensive outcome.

Floor%: Via Floor % answers the question, "when Player X uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?". The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.

Touches/Possession: Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, Touches attempt to estimate "the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor." Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you'll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea.

Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player "in an attacking position" passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.