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Projecting Every SEC Game in 2019

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Missouri is poised for a bit of a breakout. But how much of one?

NCAA Football: SEC Media Day Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports

As soon as I got the indispensable Phil Steele college football guide in my grubby mitts, I knew what time it was.

For five of the six years I’ve been in Missouri, I’ve used the Steele prognostication, as well as its rotating five-year performance grid, to pick every game in the SEC for the coming season.

In those five years, I’ve picked a combined 71.0 percent of the games right overall, with a .586 mark in the SEC.

So, as I say every year, I’m about a 8-4 (5-3) or 9-3 (5-3) coach. Depending on if my guys slip up in the nonconference. I’m looking at you, Troy!

For my methodology, check out last year. I used Model 1 this year because I simply did not have time for Model 2. RIP Model 2.

Let’s do it:

East
Georgia Bulldogs — 11-1, 7-1
South Carolina Gamecocks — 8-4, 5-3
Florida Gators — 9-3, 5-3
Missouri Tigers — 9-3, 5-3
Kentucky Wildcats — 7-5, 3-5
Tennessee Volunteers — 5-7, 1-7
Vanderbilt Commodores — 4-8, 0-8
(you’ll see why South Carolina sneaks up to second later on...)

West
Alabama Crimson TIde — 12-0, 8-0
LSU Tigers — 11-1, 7-1
Texas A&M Aggies — 8-4, 5-3
Mississippi St. Bulldogs — 8-4, 4-4
Auburn Tigers — 7-5, 3-5
Ole Miss Rebels — 4-8, 2-6
Arkansas Razorbacks — 4-8, 1-7

Now let’s go team by team, starting with Missouri

Missouri Tigers (9-3, 5-3)
at Wyoming — W
West Virginia — W
SEMO — W
South Carolina — L
Troy — W
Ole Miss — W
at Vanderbilt — W
at Kentucky — W
at Georgia — L
Florida — L
Tennessee — W
at Arkansas — W

(I don’t have a big issue with this and can totally see it happening. With the weirdness that has been Missouri of late, though, my gut is telling me to actually lean toward 10-2, 6-2, with a win over Florida and a loss to South Carolina...for some reason...)

Here’s the rest of the league, with who the model has them losing to:

East

Georgia (11-1, 7-1)
vs. Florida (in Jacksonville) — L

South Carolina (8-4, 5-3)
vs. Alabama — L
at Georgia — L
at Texas A&M — L
Clemson — L
(and there it is. Money wins against Florida and Missouri, losses to the West and Georgia)

Florida (9-3, 5-3)
vs. Auburn — L
at LSU — L
at South Carolina — L

Kentucky (7-5, 3-5)
vs. Florida — L
at Mississippi St. — L
at South Carolina — L
at Georgia — L
Missouri — L

Tennessee (5-7, 1-7)
at Florida — L
vs. Georgia — L
vs. Mississippi St. — L
at Alabama — L
vs. South Carolina — L
at Kentucky — L
at Missouri — L

Vanderbilt (4-8, 0-8)
vs. Georgia — L
vs. LSU — L
vs. Ole Miss — L
vs. Missouri — L
at South Carolina — L
at Florida — L
at Kentucky — L
at Tennessee — L
(by the way, how crazy of a conference schedule is this? 4 straight home, then 4 straight road?)

West

Alabama (12-0, 8-0)
Pass.

LSU (11-1, 7-1)
at Alabama — L

Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)
at Clemson — L
vs. Alabama — L
at Georgia — L
at LSU — L

Mississippi St. (8-4, 4-4)
at Auburn — L
vs. LSU — L
at Texas A&M — L
vs. Alabama — L

Auburn (7-5, 3-5)
at Texas A&M — L
at LSU — L
vs. Ole Miss — L
vs. Georgia — L
vs. Alabama — L
(Auburn has a bruuuuuuuuutal schedule this year. Sorry, Gus...)

Ole Miss (4-8, 2-6)
vs. Arkansas — L
at Alabama — L
at Missouri — L
vs. Texas A&M — L
vs. LSU — L
at Mississippi St. — L

Arkansas (4-8, 1-7)
vs. Texas A&M (in Arlington, Texas) — L
at Kentucky — L
vs. Auburn — L
at Alabama — L
vs. Mississippi St. — L
vs. Western Kentucky — L
at LSU — L
vs. Missouri — L

So there you have it. Be sure to find me in November and tell me how wrong I was...


...but you might have to look a little harder to find me this year.

This is the last piece I’m writing for RockMNation. Because of professional and life changes, I just do not have the time to devote to covering the team that I would want to for this role and that you deserve as readers.

I don’t usually get mushy — I save it for that one episode of Futurama...you know the one! — so I won’t here. But I just wanted to briefly say how much of a joy it’s been covering this team for the past six years and writing for and interacting with you, the readers.

I would not have sent myself into premature blindness poring over the broadcast of the past 78 Missouri games to bring you all snap counts and other useless minutiae if I didn’t enjoy it. And the thing I enjoyed most about it was finding cool stuff for you all to talk about.

You probably had to wade through 98 percent lame boringness to get to said cool stuff, but I hope the 2 percent was worth it for you.

It was for me. Thanks again.


A message from me, Sam Snelling:

I just wanted to take a moment to thank David for his writing over the last few years. Rock M Nation has changed a lot since David signed up to write for us. 182 articles later we’ve learned a lot about Missouri football and it’s because of David’s efforts. I’m going to miss reading his pithiness even in the face of giant spreadsheets of numbers, and I’m really going to miss snap counts because I can’t fathom asking someone to perform the task he did every Sunday after a Missouri football game. I’m thankful for David having done what he’s done, and I’m sure you will all join me is saying thank you to David for his time and effort.