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It's run or bust for Missouri against the BYU defense

BYU has a play-making safety and a fierce pass rush, but you can run on the Cougars at times. The ground game will probably key for Missouri's chances on Saturday at Arrowhead.

Chris Nicoll-USA TODAY Sports

LE
Bronson Kaufusi 6-8 280 Sr. -- 30.0 tackles, 8.5 TFL (6 sacks), 1 INT, 1 FF
Tomasi Laulile 6-4 280 So. -- 12.5 tackles, 3 TFL (1 sack)

NT
Travis Tuiloma 6-2 300 Jr. -- 6.5 tackles, 2 TFL (1.5 sacks)
Kesni Tausinga 6-1 302 So. -- 4.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 PBU

RE
Logan Taele 6-2 293 Sr. -- 16.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL (1.5 sacks)
Graham Rowley 6-4 280 Sr. -- 10.0 tackles, 1 TFL (0.5 sacks)

Last year, BYU ranked 29th in Rushing S&P+ and 79th in Passing S&P+; that's been typical of much of the Bronco Mendenhall era -- they're going to stop the run, they're going to rush the passer ... and they might let you off the hook with their secondary.

That's not really the case this year. The Cougars are playing some of the best pass defense that they ever have -- excellent big-play prevention with a ferocious pass rush -- but seem to have their worst run defense in a while. They are a perfect mirror of last year: 79th in Rushing S&P+, 29th in Passing S&P+.

In theory, this could be a good thing for Missouri, which has come a lot closer to running well than passing well in recent games. Regardless, there's still quite a bit of meat up front, and while BYU is giving up a lot of big plays, the Cougars are still quite good in short yardage situations. (And Mizzou's been quite bad in those situations.) But there's a chance that Mizzou can get going on the ground and keep things in second- and third-and-manageable situations. That might be the only hope Missouri has because BYU has a much, much better pass rush than Mississippi State does ... and you remember how easily MSU was getting pressure on Drew Lock.

SLB
Fred Warner 6-4 225 So. -- 39.0 tackles, 8 TFL (4 sacks), 1 INT, 1 PBU
Lene Lesatele 6-2 231 So.

MLB
Harvey Langi 6-3 240 Jr. -- 33.0 tackles, 5.5 TFL (4.5 sacks), 2 INT, 1 PBU
Teu Kautai 6-1 228 Sr. -- 7.0 tackles, 0.5 TFL

BLB
Jherremya Leuta-Douyere 6-0 230 Sr. -- 27.5 tackles, 1 TFL (0.5 sacks), 1 PBU
Manoa Pikula 6-1 235 Sr. -- 32.5 tackles, 3.5 TFL (2 sacks)

WLB
Sae Tautu 6-4 246 Jr. -- 25.5 tackles, 7.5 TFL (3 sacks)

BYU ranks 18th in linebacker havoc rate; Fred Warner, Harvey Langi, and Sae Tautu are all getting into the backfield rather frequently. This is a scary thought against an offense that has so frequently allowed defenders in the backfield. Missouri's going to have to succeed on first down to try to keep BYU's LBs from pinning their ears all the way back. Second- or third-and-long could be a disaster.

FC
Micah Hannemann 6-0 200 So. -- 28.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1 INT, 6 PBU
Michael Shelton 5-8 169 Fr. -- 11.5 tackles, 1 INT, 1 PBU

BC
Michael Davis 6-2 195 Jr. -- 15.5 tackles, 7 PBU, 1 FF
Jordan Preator 6-0 183 So. -- 8.5 tackles, 1 INT

FS
Kai Nacua 6-2 213 Jr. -- 31.0 tackles, 1 TFL, 4 INT, 5 PBU
Eric Takenaka 5-11 205 Jr. -- 6.0 tackles

KAT
Michael Wadsworth 6-2 221 Sr. -- 48.5 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 3 PBU
Matt Hadley 6-0 195 So. -- 9.5 tackles, 2 TFL, 2 PBU

Lots of disruption here. The starting corners have defensed 14 passes, and the starting safeties have 3.5 tackles for loss, four picks, and eight PBUs. Only one of BYU's last five opponents has posted a passer rating better than 122 ... and Mizzou's only hit even that meager mark just twice all year (against SEMO and South Carolina). Barring sudden, drastic improvement from the Missouri receiving corps (and Drew Lock, and the pass protection), passing isn't going to work out incredibly well for the Tigers. Run or bust.

Special Teams

K
Trevor Samson 5-11 177 Sr. -- 36-36 PAT, 8-9 FG under 40, 3-4 FG over 40
Austin Brasher 6-0 183 Jr. -- 55 kickoffs, 63.0 average, 27 touchbacks

P
Jonny Linehan 6-0 195 Jr. -- 43 punts, 43.4 average, 14 FC, 15 I20
Rhett Almond 6-4 190 Fr. -- 1 punt, 48 yards

KR
Trey Dye 5-9 175 So. -- 3 returns, 32.0 average (long: 46)
Harvey Langi 6-3 240 Jr.

PR
Michael Shelton 5'8, 169, Fr. -- 6 returns, 17.3 average (long: 40)
Micah Hannemann 6'0 200 So. -- 10 returns, 3.5 average (long: 11)

BYU ranks 51st in Brian Fremeau's special teams rankings -- 19th in kickoff efficiency, 35th in punt returns, 38th in field goals, 92nd in kick returns, and 102nd in punting. We know that punts and punt returns tend to take on more significance in Missouri games, so whoever is fielding punts (Cam Hilton or somebody else) might get a couple of opportunities to roam