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Missouri Tigers (2-3) vs. Florida Gators (4-1)
October 15, 2016
October 15, 2016 (4:00 PM ET, SECN)
Spread: Florida -13.5
S&P+ Projection: Florida (32.9 - 17.3)
Thus far, Missouri's 2016 season has played out as projected. The Tigers have handily won two games they were supposed to handily win, and they lost three games they were supposed to lose -- one by about the expected margin (WVU), one by less (Georgia), one by more (LSU).
Beating Georgia would have changed the season outlook by quite a bit, but for now it appears Missouri will indeed have the low margin for error that we expected when the Tigers begin a key four-game stretch next week against Middle Tennessee.
There's one more chance to change the script before that, however.
Florida is a good team, probably better than it gets credit for at this point. The Gators were dreadful in the second half against Tennessee and are 4-1 instead of 5-0 as a result. But they still nearly put themselves in position to beat a good Tennessee team on the road despite playing with a backup quarterback. And despite an offense that is still competent at best, the Gators' defense and special teams units are top-notch.
S&P+ gives Florida an 82 percent chance of beating Missouri on Saturday, but that means there's an 18 percent chance the Tigers can still pull an uspet. If they do, how does said upset take shape?
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Missouri | Florida | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 48 | 10 | ||
| Category | Missouri offense | Florida defense | Florida offense | Missouri defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 6.28 (22) | 4.04 (6) | 5.35 (78) | 5.22 (60) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 507.4 (16) | 253.8 (5) | 402.2 (76) | 436.0 (96) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.57 (47) | 0.92 (3) | 2.33 (64) | 1.58 (29) |
| Category | Missouri offense | Florida defense | Florida offense | Missouri defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 33.0 (44) | 11.4 (3) | 28.7 (68) | 27.3 (52) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 86.7 (116) | 119.8 (21) | 96.0 (98) | 90.5 (100) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 123.0 (22) | 115.8 (23) | 111.7 (43) | 104.7 (52) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 112.6 (34) | 118.3 (17) | 111.9 (36) | 91.1 (104) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 107.2 (60) | 110.8 (43) | 84.9 (112) | 114.2 (36) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 121.8 (30) | 150.8 (8) | 120.5 (32) | 95.8 (85) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 123.5 (26) | 122.5 (25) | 112.5 (49) | 99.4 (71) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 108.6 (45) | 104.8 (53) | 77.1 (124) | 103.0 (58) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 104.3 (56) | 125.2 (9) | 108.8 (45) | 95.8 (77) |
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Missouri
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
- Passing Downs S&P+ (No. 36 defense vs. No. 112 offense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 30 defense vs. No. 106 offense)
- Passing Downs Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 41 defense vs. No. 115 offense)
- Field Position (No. 8 defense vs. No. 75 offense)
Florida
- Rushing Explosiveness (IsoPPP) (No. 14 defense vs. No. 124 offense)
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 117 defense)
- Standard Downs Sack Rate (No. 7 offense vs. No. 107 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 21 defense vs. No. 116 offense)
- Adj. Line Yards (No. 15 defense vs. No. 88 offense)
I've enjoyed the effect of adding this "advantages" section to the preview template. With it, you can pretty clearly create a path to victory for either team. We see that Missouri has an advantage in short-yardage situations on offense, on passing downs on defense, and, perhaps, in field position.
Meanwhile, Florida should swallow up any chance for big plays in the Missouri run game and has a better chance of successfully finishing drives than the Tigers.
That offers some ready-made keys to the game then, huh? (We'll come back to that.)
Five Factors
| Category | Missouri offense | Florida defense | Florida offense | Missouri defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.40 (26) | 1.14 (18) | 1.16 (110) | 1.14 (15) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.6% (74) | 33.2% (14) | 43.9% (45) | 42.1% (76) |
| FIELD POSITION | 31.3 (46) | 28.4 (52) | 29.3 (75) | 24.8 (8) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.3 (36) | 2.9 (2) | 4.7 (72) | 4.5 (50) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Missouri -0.49 (76) Florida 1.61 (49) |
ACTUAL Missouri 1 (45) Florida 5 (18) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Missouri offense | Florida offense |
| Adj. Pace | 5.2 (29) | -0.4 (64) |
| Plays per game | 80.8 (28) | 75.2 (55) |
| Possessions per game | 14.4 (21) | 12.2 (102) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 49.4% (113) | 53.2% (99) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 27.8% (96) | 40.4% (29) |
| % of solo tackles | 81.2% (20) | 72.8% (78) |
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Missouri defense | Florida defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 60.0% (59) | 65.6% (19) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 33.3% (70) | 32.3% (80) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 15.8% (76) | 19.5% (23) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 8.6% (72) | 10.7% (42) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 7.2% (40) | 8.7% (15) |
| PD to INC | 41.6% (11) | 36.1% (42) |
The Gators aren't playing as slowly on offense as they have in previous years, but the higher the tempo, the more it probably favors Missouri. Of course, part of tempo is creating first downs. That was an issue in Baton Rouge.
When Missouri has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Missouri Offense | Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 112.6 | 34 | 118.3 | 17 | Florida |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 47.6% | 58 | 41.7% | 21 | Florida |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.29 | 18 | 0.97 | 2 | Florida |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 2.93 | 70 | 2.54 | 30 | Florida |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.2% | 10 | 14.3% | 2 | |
Opponent adjustments are a bit of a requirement when trying to figure out what the hell to do with Missouri's data set so far. The Tigers completely torched two bad defenses, looked mostly good against an okay Georgia defense, and got physically dominated, for the most part, by WVU and LSU.
The opponent-adjusted "+" numbers say Mizzou's offense is ... solid. Decent. Something of that nature. The Tigers rank 34th in Standard Downs S&P+ and 60th in Passing Downs S&P+. Florida has the advantage here, but not a significant one.
I'm very curious how Mizzou intends to attack the Gators. Most Florida opponents thus far have chosen the ground game as the path of least resistance, at least on standard downs. Mizzou, meanwhile, throws more than almost anybody on such downs. The Missouri run game was perhaps slightly more effective than Josh Heupel expected last week; does he try a little bit harder to get the ground game going, or is this all on Drew Lock's shoulders?
Passing Downs
| Missouri Offense | Florida Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 107.2 | 60 | 110.8 | 43 | Florida |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 29.1% | 82 | 18.8% | 7 | Florida big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.76 | 64 | 1.74 | 111 | Missouri |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.60 | 108 | 2.94 | 47 | Florida big |
| PD Sack Rate | 0% | 1 | 13.8% | 9 | |
Considering the quality of the pass rush and the secondary, the fact that Florida ranks only 43rd in Passing Downs S&P+ is surprising. But you see from the other numbers why that is. UF is ruthlessly efficient, but if you can create a successful play, it's going a long way. Opponents have completed only 14 of 42 passes on third downs (!), but those 14 completions have gone for 228 yards (16.3 per completion). Meanwhile, draw plays can find a little bit of success, too. But that really isn't a Missouri strength.
Also: Missouri has yet to allow a passing downs sack this season, garbage time excluded, while Florida's passing downs pass rush is dynamite. Against LSU, Lock didn't take many sacks, but he faced enough pressure to hurry his fundamentals. We'll see if he's more relaxed in Gainesville.
When Florida has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Florida Offense | Missouri Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 111.9 | 36 | 91.1 | 104 | Florida big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 50.7% | 31 | 49.0% | 92 | Florida big |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.12 | 69 | 0.89 | 16 | Missouri big |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.05 | 59 | 3.34 | 112 | Florida big |
| SD Sack Rate | 1,0% | 7 | 2.6% | 107 | Florida big |
Opponent adjustments are ... not kind to Missouri's defense on standard downs. Staggeringly unkind, in fact. The Tigers aren't allowing big plays on such downs, which is fine, but a nearly 50% success rate is dreadful. Meanwhile, though the Florida offense is still a few pieces away from clicking overall, the Gators game plan and execute well enough to stay ahead of schedule for the most part, via either run or short pass.
For Missouri to win this game, this absolutely cannot be the case. Granted, if the Gators are moving the ball well but settling for field goals, maybe the Tigers can survive some inefficiency. But Florida has the red zone advantage, too. That might not be a strategy you can lean on.
Passing Downs
| Florida Offense | Missouri Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 84.9 | 112 | 114.2 | 36 | Missouri big |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.1% | 94 | 27.8% | 44 | Missouri big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.32 | 123 | 2.09 | 69 | Missouri big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.40 | 59 | 2.38 | 19 | Missouri |
| PD Sack Rate | 7.6% | 62 | 8.3% | 57 | |
If Florida is facing second-and-8 or third-and-7 too much, the advantage shifts drastically toward the Tigers. Luke Del Rio's passer rating is 190.7 on first downs but only 95.0 on third. On third-and-7 or more, he's only 6-for-12 for 63 yards and an interception. And if Pro Football Focus' pressure stats are dropping any hints, Charles Harris could get all the way dialed in at any moment.
Florida shouldn't have much success on passing downs; the trick will be forcing them to begin with.
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Missouri | Drew Lock | 6'4, 220 | SO | 113 | 199 | 1675 | 14 | 4 | 56.8% | 3 | 1.5% | 8.2 |
| Missouri | Marvin Zanders | 6'1, 200 | SO | 6 | 7 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 85.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 6.6 |
| Florida | Luke Del Rio | 6'1, 211 | SO | 62 | 101 | 762 | 6 | 2 | 61.4% | 1 | 1.0% | 7.4 |
| Florida | Austin Appleby | 6'4, 240 | SR | 44 | 72 | 470 | 3 | 1 | 61.1% | 4 | 5.3% | 5.9 |
Del Rio gets the ball out of his hands more quickly than Appleby, though he can still perhaps get baited into mistakes.
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Missouri | Ish Witter | RB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 68 | 257 | 2 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 23.5% |
| Missouri | Damarea Crockett | RB | 5'11, 220 | FR | 40 | 245 | 3 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 52.5% |
| Missouri | Alex Ross | RB | 6'1, 220 | SR | 20 | 72 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 25.0% |
| Missouri | Marvin Zanders | QB | 6'1, 200 | SO | 19 | 133 | 2 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 52.6% |
| Florida | Jordan Scarlett | RB | 5'10, 213 | SO | 55 | 274 | 4 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 40.0% |
| Florida | Mark Thompson | RB | 6'2, 237 | JR | 47 | 197 | 2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 31.9% |
| Florida | Lamical Perine | RB | 5'11, 221 | FR | 37 | 194 | 1 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 40.5% |
| Florida | Jordan Cronkrite | RB | 5'11, 204 | SO | 23 | 106 | 1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 43.5% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Maybe Alex Ross is full-speed again? Curious what happens to Missouri's running backs rotation if that's the case. Damarea Crockett will likely still get some opportunities, but the distribution of carries will be interesting to watch.
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Missouri | J'Mon Moore | WR | 6'3, 205 | JR | 57 | 27 | 450 | 6 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 47.4% |
| Missouri | Dimetrios Mason | WR | 6'0, 185 | FR | 24 | 16 | 207 | 0 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 66.7% |
| Missouri | Chris Black | WR | 6'0, 190 | SR | 23 | 14 | 199 | 1 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 60.9% |
| Missouri | Emanuel Hall | WR | 6'3, 205 | SO | 22 | 14 | 241 | 2 | 17.2 | 11.0 | 63.6% |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | WR | 5'10, 185 | FR | 19 | 11 | 201 | 1 | 18.3 | 10.6 | 57.9% |
| Missouri | Jason Reese | TE | 6'5, 250 | JR | 11 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 54.5% |
| Missouri | Sean Culkin | TE | 6'6, 250 | SR | 9 | 7 | 70 | 0 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 77.8% |
| Florida | Antonio Callaway | WR | 5'11, 197 | SO | 32 | 20 | 371 | 2 | 18.6 | 11.6 | 62.5% |
| Florida | DeAndre Goolsby | TE | 6'4, 244 | JR | 31 | 22 | 175 | 1 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 71.0% |
| Florida | Brandon Powell | WR | 5'9, 184 | JR | 28 | 19 | 168 | 2 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 67.9% |
| Florida | Jordan Cronkrite | RB | 5'11, 204 | SO | 15 | 11 | 71 | 1 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 73.3% |
| Florida | C'yontai Lewis | TE | 6'4, 231 | SO | 12 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 50.0% |
| Florida | Josh Hammond | WR | 6'1, 186 | FR | 11 | 8 | 118 | 0 | 14.8 | 10.7 | 72.7% |
| Florida | Freddie Swain | WR | 6'0, 186 | FR | 7 | 6 | 74 | 2 | 12.3 | 10.6 | 85.7% |
The chief goal for Florida has been getting the ball to Brandon Powell, likely short of the chains, and seeing if he can make something happen. Powell has been battling an ankle injury but is listed as probable for Saturday.
Missouri's primary passing downs strategy, meanwhile: Heave it to J'Mon and hope. Passes to Moore are 9-for-20 for 135 yards on passing downs. Nobody else has been targeted more than 12 times. That's too much focus on one guy, especially considering the caliber of corner he'll be going against in Gainesville. Spreading the ball around to Chris Black, Emanuel Hall, Johnathon Johnson, Sean Culkin, etc., will be the key. And to Lock's credit, he's done a much better job of that since the WVU game.
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Missouri | Thomas Wilson | S | 5'10, 195 | JR | 32.0 | 10.5% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Michael Scherer | LB | 6'3, 235 | SR | 31.5 | 10.4% | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Donavin Newsom | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 27.0 | 8.9% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Anthony Sherrils | DB | 6'0, 205 | JR | 22.5 | 7.4% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Joey Burkett | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 18.0 | 5.9% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Aarion Penton | DB | 5'10, 195 | SR | 16.0 | 5.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Terry Beckner, Jr. | DL | 6'4, 290 | SO | 15.5 | 5.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Charles Harris | DL | 6'3, 260 | JR | 13.5 | 4.4% | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | John Gibson | DB | 6'0, 195 | SR | 12.5 | 4.1% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Rickey Hatley | DL | 6'4, 320 | SR | 10.0 | 3.3% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Terez Hall | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 10.0 | 3.3% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Ronnell Perkins | S | 6'0, 200 | FR | 10.0 | 3.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Spencer Williams | DL | 6'3, 250 | SO | 10.0 | 3.3% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Jarrad Davis | LB | 6'2, 238 | SR | 30.5 | 13.2% | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Alex Anzalone | LB | 6'3, 241 | JR | 24.0 | 10.4% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Marcus Maye | DB | 6'0, 216 | SR | 23.0 | 10.0% | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Jordan Sherit | DL | 6'4, 254 | JR | 15.5 | 6.7% | 3.5 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Bryan Cox | DL | 6'3, 269 | SR | 11.5 | 5.0% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Florida | Nick Washington | DB | 6'0, 197 | JR | 11.5 | 5.0% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Duke Dawson | DB | 5'10, 208 | JR | 11.0 | 4.8% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Florida | Marcell Harris | DB | 6'1, 211 | JR | 11.0 | 4.8% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Jabari Zuniga | DL | 6'3, 245 | FR | 10.5 | 4.5% | 5.0 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Florida | Cece Jefferson | DL | 6'1, 261 | SO | 9.0 | 3.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Caleb Brantley | DL | 6'2, 297 | JR | 7.5 | 3.2% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Quincy Wilson | DB | 6'1, 213 | JR | 6.5 | 2.8% | 2.0 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | David Reese | LB | 6'0, 244 | FR | 6.5 | 2.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
Florida defensive coordinator Geoff Collins has done a nice job of spreading the havoc around. That, and strong recruiting, should allow for the Gators to overcome injuries to players like Jordan Sherit (out indefinitely) and Caleb Brantley (questionable) without too much of a drop-off.
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Missouri | Corey Fatony | 5'11, 205 | SO | 26 | 43.8 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 61.5% |
| Florida | Johnny Townsend | 6'1, 211 | JR | 24 | 50.2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 45.8% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Missouri | Tucker McCann | 6'0, 195 | FR | 33 | 64.8 | 23 | 69.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Turner Adams | 6'0, 205 | JR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Florida | Eddy Pineiro | 6'0, 173 | SO | 27 | 64.9 | 20 | 74.1% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | Jorge Powell | 5'10, 177 | SO | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Missouri | Tucker McCann | 6'0, 195 | FR | 19-21 | 4-6 | 66.7% |
| Missouri | Turner Adams | 6'0, 205 | JR | 2-3 | 0-0 | N/A |
| Florida | Eddy Pineiro | 6'0, 173 | SO | 15-15 | 7-9 | 77.8% |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | 5'10, 185 | FR | 9 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Missouri | Damarea Crockett | 5'11, 220 | FR | 5 | 17.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 (0) |
| Florida | Antonio Callaway | 5'11, 197 | SO | 2 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Florida | Lamical Perine | 5'11, 221 | FR | 2 | 21.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Missouri | Chris Black | 6'0, 190 | SR | 6 | 12.3 | 0 | 1 | 1 (0) |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | 5'10, 185 | FR | 5 | 13.8 | 1 | 4 | 2 (1) |
| Florida | Antonio Callaway | 5'11, 197 | SO | 9 | 3.6 | 0 | 4 | 2 (1) |
| Florida | Brandon Powell | 5'9, 184 | JR | 5 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
Corey Fatony's got a battle on his hands, as Johnny Townsend is incredible. Hopefully he outkicks his coverage a couple of times.
***
4 keys to the game
1. Who starts well?
I mentioned this in Friday's links post.
I was already leaning toward listing the first quarter as one of the keys to the football game in today's Mizzou-Florida preview. The rationale there was that we should know what we need to know about whether Mizzou's offense has a chance of clicking within just a couple of possessions -- is the offensive line getting a push? Are Mizzou's receivers able to fight off of Florida's coverage to get into their routes? Et cetera.
I hadn't really considered the "Del Rio's ready to make an impact" variable, though. That could make the early going even more interesting. Del Rio is still a pretty young guy despite having already transferred twice in his career, and if he's a little bit too "juiced up" and plays too aggressively in the early going, that could give Mizzou's defense an opportunity to make a big play. (That, or he completes a bomb, and Florida takes an early lead.)
It always feels like putting "first quarter!" on a keys-to-the-game list is always a bit of a cop-out -- the first quarter is always important -- but ... it's going on the list.
Key stat: Q1 success rate
2. Who's on schedule?
Passing downs might be deadly for Florida's offense and will almost certainly be deadly for Missouri's. Therefore it stands to reason that the team that avoids them the best will have created quite the advantage for itself. That's probably going to be Florida, but Mizzou could surprise.
Key stat: Standard downs success rate
3. Who's getting to the QB?
Florida's got an outstanding pass rush. Mizzou had one but hasn't put the pieces all together this year. Whoever creates negative plays, particularly in pass situations, will give themselves a huge leg up in the field position department and will be more likely to create turnovers. Again, this is probably Florida, but Missouri has potential.
Key stat: Sack rate
4. Who's finishing?
This only matters if one team isn't dominating the three other categories here -- if Mizzou, for instance, only creates two scoring opportunities to Florida's six or something, then this doesn't make much of a difference. But if Missouri is fighting well in the first three categories, this could turn the tide one way or the other. Florida's offense appears to have a strong advantage in these situations.
Key stat: Points per scoring opportunity
Missouri will have a chance to make this a competitive game; Florida didn't exactly look immortal in the second half of the Tennessee game and in the trip to Vanderbilt. Still, with that defense and with Del Rio back, I'm assuming Florida pulls it out. The key, then, is maintaining confidence for the four-game stretch that comes. Hopefully if the Gators do win, the Tigers have at least shown more than they did in Baton Rouge. Confidence and good health could make the difference this year; hopefully Mizzou doesn't lose both in The Swamp.