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At some point, you become your record. Right now Missouri is a team that has shown quite a bit of promise on paper and has a 2-5 record to show for it. The Tigers are 40th in S&P+ and are favored by 5.5 over Kentucky, a team two games ahead of them in the win column.
Eventually you play to the level of your stats, or your stats change. Missouri's early-Saturday efforts will go a long way toward determining which will happen with the Tigers.
Kentucky Wildcats (4-3) vs. Missouri Tigers (2-5)
October 29, 2016 (12:00 PM ET, SECN)
Spread: Missouri -5.5
S&P+ Projection: Missouri (34.8-25.2)
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.
The Basics
| Category | Kentucky | Missouri | ||
| S&P+ (Rk) | 70 | 40 | ||
| Category | Kentucky offense | Missouri defense | Missouri offense | Kentucky defense |
| Yards per play (Rk) | 5.45 (70) | 5.58 (81) | 6.04 (31) | 5.46 (71) |
| Yards per game (Rk) | 365.9 (103) | 469.6 (114) | 500.0 (14) | 419.4 (79) |
| Points per possession (Rk) | 2.08 (76) | 2.02 (56) | 2.37 (60) | 2.60 (108) |
| Category | Kentucky offense | Missouri defense | Missouri offense | Kentucky defense |
| S&P+ (Rk) | 28.2 (77) | 28.2 (54) | 34.1 (33) | 29.6 (71) |
| Rushing S&P+ (Rk) | 123.8 (11) | 92.7 (97) | 108.4 (51) | 93.8 (91) |
| Passing S&P+ (Rk) | 100.3 (68) | 112.4 (27) | 118.9 (25) | 94.8 (85) |
| Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 115.8 (20) | 104.7 (47) | 117.9 (13) | 97.9 (77) |
| Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) | 109.3 (51) | 97.2 (77) | 100.2 (76) | 93.9 (90) |
| Q1 S&P+ (Rk) | 112.8 (46) | 107.7 (48) | 133.2 (11) | 102.5 (59) |
| Q2 S&P+ (Rk) | 114.2 (36) | 96.4 (81) | 123.3 (21) | 85.9 (112) |
| Q3 S&P+ (Rk) | 117.9 (30) | 107.4 (41) | 123.5 (25) | 83.4 (121) |
| Q4 S&P+ (Rk) | 105.6 (54) | 94.4 (90) | 111.7 (36) | 108.8 (39) |
In the rushing/passing offense/defense matchups above, Mizzou wins three of four. Its pass defense is better than UK's pass offense, and both its run and pass offense are better than Kentucky. But Kentucky can run the ball. And that's a concern.
Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)
* or smallest disadvantages
Kentucky
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 4 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
- Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
- Rushing S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
- Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
Kentucky runs the ball efficiently on first down, runs efficiently on second down, and runs efficiently in short-yardage. Basically all five of UK's biggest advantages have to do with the ground game. The Tigers simply must figure out ways to throw the Wildcats off-schedule. If they can, they could win big. But they haven't given us much reason to believe they can.
Missouri
- Redzone S&P+ (No. 1 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
- Run Stuffs (No. 18 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
- Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 33 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
- First Down S&P+ (No. 21 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
- Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 offense vs. No. 96 defense)
Yes, that's right: Mizzou currently has the No. 1 offense in Redzone S&P+. That's an incredible thing to realize considering how awful the Tigers were at finishing against WVU, but here we are. Even if UK is running the ball well, Mizzou could find an advantage by holding the Wildcats to field goals and scoring TDs on their own opportunities.
It is probably telling that the five biggest advantages for both team all come from the offensive side of the ball, huh?
Five Factors
| Category | Kentucky offense | Missouri defense | Missouri offense | Kentucky defense |
| EXPLOSIVENESS | 1.37 (22) | 1.26 (73) | 1.30 (48) | 1.09 (6) |
| EFFICIENCY | 41.7% (69) | 41.3% (61) | 41.8% (67) | 46.6% (115) |
| FIELD POSITION | 29.3 (76) | 26.9 (19) | 29.4 (74) | 30.3 (87) |
| FINISHING DRIVES | 5.1 (43) | 4.8 (79) | 5.3 (24) | 4.9 (84) |
| TURNOVER MARGIN |
EXPECTED: Kentucky -2.17 (96) Missouri -2.09 (93) |
ACTUAL Kentucky -9 (125) Missouri 0 (55) |
||
Offensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Kentucky offense | Missouri offense |
| Adj. Pace | -6.4 (113) | 8.3 (10) |
| Plays per game | 67.1 (118) | 82.7 (12) |
| Possessions per game | 12.9 (79) | 14.7 (8) |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 70.4% (12) | 58.0% (74) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 38.6% (36) | 31.7% (74) |
| % of solo tackles | 72.9% (74) | 76.1% (46) |
There's value in knowing what you are and what you can do. Kentucky has never been particularly run-happy in Mark Stoops' tenure, but it became painfully obvious this year what the Wildcats' offensive strengths and weaknesses are, and offensive coordinator Eddie Gran is playing to them. Kentucky is a slow-tempo, run-first team this year, but as you see, the Wildcats are doing well with it. If they have to pass, they are in trouble. If they have to make a stop to save the game, they are in trouble. But they can run the ball, so they run it a lot.
Defensive Footprint
| Category (Rk) | Kentucky defense | Missouri defense |
| Std. Downs Run Rate | 61.3% (52) | 58.6% (69) |
| Pass. Downs Run Rate | 43.6% (5) | 32.6% (82) |
| Overall Havoc Rate | 13.5% (104) | 14.9% (89) |
| Front 7 Havoc Rate | 7.2% (109) | 8.0% (90) |
| DB Havoc Rate | 6.3% (68) | 6.9% (50) |
| PD to INC | 34.4% (52) | 37.8% (26) |
Opponents have chosen to run the ball a ton against Kentucky, even on passing downs. That could be a matter of individual preference (there haven't been many dramatically pass-happy teams on Kentucky's schedule so far), it could be an adjustment to facing a fierce pass rush (Kentucky tries to rush the passer pretty hard but doesn't do it incredibly well), and it could just be because running the ball against Kentucky is really easy.
Southern Miss' Ito Smith and George Payne rushed 52 times for 273 yards against UK. Florida's Lamical Perine rushed 17 times for 105. Alabama's Joshua Jacobs rushed 16 times for 100. Vandy's Ralph Webb rushed 18 times for 100. Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald rushed 16 times for 107. UK's defensive front is not very effective.
Of course, neither is Missouri's.
When Kentucky has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Kentucky Offense | Missouri Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 115.8 | 20 | 104.7 | 47 | Kentucky |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 49.6% | 42 | 47.0% | 70 | Kentucky |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.24 | 20 | 0.97 | 57 | Kentucky |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.35 | 19 | 3.44 | 121 | Kentucky big |
| SD Sack Rate | 3.8% | 37 | 2.5% | 113 | Kentucky big |
Spoiler alert, but I think one of the keys to this game will be Kentucky's opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards). Mizzou hasn't proven it can be a huge threat in the UK backfield, but if the Tigers are at least holding the Wildcats to two or three yards on first down, they'll give themselves a chance to make stops.
That's far, far easier said than done, as you see here. Mizzou's front has been feckless when opponents are on schedule, and that was with Michael Scherer and Terry Beckner Jr.
Passing Downs
| Kentucky Offense | Missouri Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 109.3 | 51 | 97.2 | 77 | Kentucky |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 26.4% | 110 | 29.9% | 56 | Missouri big |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.86 | 43 | 1.49 | 97 | Kentucky big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 3.79 | 28 | 2.76 | 30 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 14% | 120 | 6.2% | 87 | Missouri |
The advantage shifts if you can knock Kentucky off-schedule. The Wildcats just aren't very reliable passing the ball with Stephen Johnson, and if Mizzou's ever going to get its pass rush going, it might be on Saturday. Missouri's given up a few too many big plays on passing downs (the MTSU game almost single-handedly turned Missouri's PD IsoPPP numbers from reasonable strength to weakness), but the efficiency is there.
When Missouri has the ball…
Standard Downs
| Missouri Offense | Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Standard Downs S&P+ | 117.9 | 13 | 97.9 | 77 | Missouri big |
| Standard Downs Success Rate | 48.1% | 56 | 50.9% | 104 | Missouri |
| Standard Downs IsoPPP | 1.21 | 26 | 1.07 | 13 | Kentucky |
| SD Line Yards per Carry | 3.26 | 27 | 3.72 | 128 | Missouri big |
| SD Sack Rate | 1.8% | 13 | 4.7% | 67 | Missouri big |
The goal for Missouri's offense is to play one hell of a game of "Anything you can do, I can do better." Mizzou's offense is also excellent on standard downs and shaky on passing downs and holds many of the same advantages that Kentucky holds. Only, in theory, Missouri's advantages here are bigger. In situations in which opponents can either run or pass, Kentucky has gotten wrecked, at least near the line. Their big-play prevention ability is legit, but that doesn't matter much if you're constantly getting gashed for 6-8 yards.
Missouri should find some matchups it likes in the passing game and should be able to find steady yardage on the ground. If this isn't the case, the Tigers aren't good enough on third-and-8 to keep up on the scoreboard.
Passing Downs
| Missouri Offense | Kentucky Defense | ||||
| Avg. | Rk | Avg. | Rk | Edge | |
| Passing Downs S&P+ | 100.2 | 76 | 93.9 | 90 | Missouri |
| Passing Downs Success Rate | 28.6% | 88 | 36.4% | 115 | Missouri |
| Passing Downs IsoPPP | 1.61 | 94 | 1.86 | 11 | Kentucky big |
| PD Line Yards per Carry | 2.23 | 123 | 3.86 | 117 | |
| PD Sack Rate | 1.2% | 2 | 10.1% | 32 | Missouri |
Kentucky's defense is obviously far from amazing on passing downs -- in fact, the Wildcats have pretty much the same "bend-don't-break" vibe on all downs. Still, Missouri's 'advantages' here are minimal.
Individual Passing Stats
| Team | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | INT | Comp Rate |
Sacks | Sack Rate | Yards/ Att. |
| Kentucky | Stephen Johnson | 6'2, 183 | JR | 69 | 123 | 920 | 5 | 2 | 56.1% | 10 | 7.5% | 6.3 |
| Kentucky | Drew Barker | 6'3, 225 | SO | 18 | 36 | 334 | 4 | 5 | 50.0% | 8 | 18.2% | 6.4 |
| Missouri | Drew Lock | 6'4, 220 | SO | 137 | 257 | 1995 | 16 | 6 | 53.3% | 5 | 1.9% | 7.5 |
| Missouri | Marvin Zanders | 6'1, 200 | SO | 9 | 11 | 105 | 1 | 0 | 81.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 9.5 |
I'm again curious about Marvin Zanders' role in this game. It was surprising not to see him playing at all against MTSU, especially considering how much Missouri was running the ball. Then again, the threat of the pass (with Lock) might have opened up some of the rushing opportunities. Regardless, Mizzou's use of Zanders has been incredibly unpredictable. We'll see what they have (or don't have) planned for him.
Individual Rushing Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | TD | Yards/ Carry |
Hlt Yds/ Opp. |
Opp. Rate |
| Kentucky | Stanley Boom Williams | RB | 5'9, 196 | JR | 91 | 639 | 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 47.3% |
| Kentucky | Benjamin Snell, Jr. | RB | 5'11, 220 | FR | 80 | 469 | 6 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 50.0% |
| Kentucky | Stephen Johnson | QB | 6'2, 183 | JR | 46 | 199 | 1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 43.5% |
| Kentucky | Jojo Kemp | RB | 5'10, 200 | SR | 41 | 145 | 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 31.7% |
| Missouri | Ish Witter | RB | 5'10, 200 | JR | 102 | 460 | 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 30.4% |
| Missouri | Damarea Crockett | RB | 5'11, 220 | FR | 83 | 546 | 7 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 50.6% |
| Missouri | Marvin Zanders | QB | 6'1, 200 | SO | 27 | 164 | 2 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 51.9% |
| Missouri | Drew Lock | QB | 6'4, 220 | SO | 24 | 139 | 0 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 50.0% |
| NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns. | ||||||||||
Witter and Crockett, first 3 games: 70 carries, 264 yards (3.8 per carry), 2 TD
Witter and Crockett, last 4 games: 94 carries, 587 yards (6.2 per carry), 8 TD
More of the latter, please.
Individual Receiving Stats
| Team | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Yds/ Catch |
Yds/ Target |
Catch Rate |
| Kentucky | Garrett Johnson | WR | 5'11, 175 | JR | 34 | 22 | 277 | 2 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 64.7% |
| Kentucky | Jeff Badet | WR | 6'0, 180 | JR | 30 | 17 | 392 | 3 | 23.1 | 13.1 | 56.7% |
| Kentucky | C.J. Conrad | TE | 6'5, 245 | SO | 20 | 13 | 195 | 3 | 15.0 | 9.8 | 65.0% |
| Kentucky | Ryan Timmons | WR | 5'10, 198 | SR | 13 | 10 | 156 | 0 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 76.9% |
| Kentucky | Tavin Richardson | WR | 6'3, 216 | SO | 12 | 7 | 137 | 0 | 19.6 | 11.4 | 58.3% |
| Kentucky | Dorian Baker | WR | 6'3, 208 | JR | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% |
| Kentucky | Stanley Boom Williams | RB | 5'9, 196 | JR | 7 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 71.4% |
| Missouri | J'Mon Moore | WR | 6'3, 205 | JR | 66 | 30 | 539 | 6 | 18.0 | 8.2 | 45.5% |
| Missouri | Dimetrios Mason | WR | 6'0, 185 | FR | 35 | 23 | 268 | 0 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 65.7% |
| Missouri | Emanuel Hall | WR | 6'3, 205 | SO | 27 | 17 | 281 | 2 | 16.5 | 10.4 | 63.0% |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | WR | 5'10, 185 | FR | 25 | 13 | 219 | 1 | 16.9 | 8.8 | 52.0% |
| Missouri | Chris Black | WR | 6'0, 190 | SR | 23 | 14 | 199 | 1 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 60.9% |
| Missouri | Sean Culkin | TE | 6'6, 250 | SR | 19 | 10 | 104 | 0 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 52.6% |
| Missouri | Jason Reese | TE | 6'5, 250 | JR | 13 | 8 | 97 | 2 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 61.5% |
Kentucky's iffy passing game only has so much to do with its receivers. This is an experienced, decent unit. And if the Wildcats watched any of last year's MU-UK film, they might have some things planned for C.J. Conrad. He had a nice game in Lexington.
Meanwhile, I'm curious about the tight ends' role for Mizzou, too. They were targeted 13 times last week.
Individual Defensive Stats
| Team | Name | Pos | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | % of Team | TFL | Sacks | Int | PBU | FF | FR |
| Kentucky | Jordan Jones | LB | 6'2, 220 | SO | 57.0 | 13.6% | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Mike Edwards | S | 6'0, 200 | SO | 42.5 | 10.2% | 4.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Courtney Love | LB | 6'2, 242 | JR | 28.0 | 6.7% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Josh Allen | LB | 6'5, 230 | SO | 25.5 | 6.1% | 5.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Derrick Baity | CB | 6'3, 182 | SO | 25.5 | 6.1% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Denzil Ware | DE | 6'2, 255 | SO | 24.5 | 5.9% | 8.0 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Chris Westry | CB | 6'4, 195 | SO | 23.5 | 5.6% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Marcus McWilson | S | 6'0, 210 | SR | 22.5 | 5.4% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Blake McClain | DB | 5'11, 200 | SR | 22.5 | 5.4% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | J.D. Harmon | CB | 6'2, 200 | SR | 19.0 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Naquez Pringle | DT | 6'3, 320 | JR | 16.5 | 3.9% | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Courtney Miggins | DT | 6'5, 285 | SR | 16.0 | 3.8% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Kentucky | Alvonte Bell | DE | 6'5, 260 | JR | 13.0 | 3.1% | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Donavin Newsom | LB | 6'2, 240 | SR | 42.0 | 10.2% | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Thomas Wilson | S | 5'10, 195 | JR | 40.5 | 9.9% | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Missouri | Michael Scherer | LB | 6'3, 235 | SR | 39.0 | 9.5% | 3.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Anthony Sherrils | DB | 6'0, 205 | JR | 28.0 | 6.8% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Aarion Penton | DB | 5'10, 195 | SR | 22.0 | 5.4% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Charles Harris | DL | 6'3, 260 | JR | 20.0 | 4.9% | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Missouri | Terry Beckner, Jr. | DL | 6'4, 290 | SO | 20.0 | 4.9% | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Joey Burkett | LB | 6'2, 225 | JR | 19.5 | 4.7% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Cale Garrett | LB | 6'3, 230 | FR | 19.0 | 4.6% | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Cam Hilton | S | 6'0, 190 | SO | 18.5 | 4.5% | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Ronnell Perkins | S | 6'0, 200 | FR | 17.5 | 4.3% | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Brandon Lee | LB | 6'2, 225 | SO | 13.0 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Missouri | Rickey Hatley | DL | 6'4, 320 | SR | 13.0 | 3.2% | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected. | ||||||||||||
So many players, so little havoc.
Individual Special Teams Stats
| Team | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg | TB | FC | I20 | FC/I20 Ratio |
| Kentucky | Grant McKinniss | 6'1, 210 | FR | 31 | 40.2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 45.2% |
| Missouri | Corey Fatony | 5'11, 205 | SO | 40 | 43.9 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 57.5% |
| Team | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg | TB | TB% | OOB | Fair Catches |
Onside Att |
Onside Success |
| Kentucky | Austin MacGinnis | 5'10, 180 | JR | 38 | 62.2 | 14 | 36.8% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Tucker McCann | 6'0, 195 | FR | 44 | 63.6 | 32 | 72.7% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | Turner Adams | 6'0, 205 | JR | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | Place-Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | FG | Pct |
| Kentucky | Austin MacGinnis | 5'10, 180 | JR | 20-21 | 9-11 | 81.8% |
| Missouri | Tucker McCann | 6'0, 195 | FR | 27-29 | 5-7 | 71.4% |
| Missouri | Turner Adams | 6'0, 205 | JR | 2-3 | 0-0 | #DIV/0! |
| Team | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Kentucky | Jeff Badet | 6'0, 180 | JR | 10 | 24.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Kentucky | Benjamin Snell, Jr. | 5'11, 220 | FR | 4 | 25.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Missouri | Alex Ross | 6'1, 220 | SR | 10 | 22.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | 5'10, 185 | FR | 9 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) |
| Team | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | Fair Catch | Fumbles (Lost) |
| Kentucky | Charles Walker | 5'11, 203 | JR | 8 | 13.3 | 1 | 13 | 2 (1) |
| Missouri | Chris Black | 6'0, 190 | SR | 9 | 11.3 | 0 | 4 | 1 (0) |
| Missouri | Johnathon Johnson | 5'10, 185 | FR | 5 | 13.8 | 1 | 4 | 2 (1) |
If this is a punting battle, that might be good for Missouri. If this is a place-kicking battle, that might not (though Tucker McCann's offered nothing to complain about lately).
***
4 keys to the game
This game is pretty easy to assess, really.
1. Stay on schedule
Both offenses hold reasonably significant advantages on standard downs, even more than offenses are supposed to have on such downs. Which defense is more effectively able to knock the opposing offense off-schedule? The stats say Missouri's odds of pulling this off are decent but far from guaranteed.
Key stat: Success rate
2. 2-yard rushes vs. 5-yard rushes
This is more of a 1a, I guess. But while neither team is likely to have a particularly disruptive presence, any stop at or near the line will create an advantage.
Key stat: Opportunity rate
3. The first quarter
Losing to Middle Tennessee is at least somewhat excusable on paper (the Blue Raiders are a top-50 team, after all), but it was a gutting experience nonetheless. Now the Tigers have even less margin for error ... and no Scherer or Beckner. This is a recipe for either a) a slow, demoralized start or b) renewed inspiration/motivation.
So which is it?
Key stat: Q1 success rate
4. Explosives and turnovers
Kentucky holds the advantage in every explosiveness (IsoPPP) category above, and big plays killed Missouri last week. So did turnovers. The efficiency advantage the Tigers created nearly guaranteed victory but was undone all the same.
Efficiency defines most of your success, but big plays can turn the tables. So count 'em up.
Key stat: 20-yard gains and turnover margin
***
As demoralizing as last week was, Missouri should win this game. Kentucky has been quite a bit worse than MTSU this season, but the Wildcats' matchup advantages in terms of rushing offense and explosiveness have to give you pause.
I'm feeling pretty confident, in part because I'm anti-social -- I tend to gravitate toward the sentiment others aren't having. But in this case, I have the stats to back me up, I guess.