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Kentucky at Missouri: It's not too late for the Tigers to turn their season around ... but it's close

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

At some point, you become your record. Right now Missouri is a team that has shown quite a bit of promise on paper and has a 2-5 record to show for it. The Tigers are 40th in S&P+ and are favored by 5.5 over Kentucky, a team two games ahead of them in the win column.

Eventually you play to the level of your stats, or your stats change. Missouri's early-Saturday efforts will go a long way toward determining which will happen with the Tigers.

Kentucky Wildcats (4-3) vs. Missouri Tigers (2-5)

October 29, 2016 (12:00 PM ET, SECN)
Spread: Missouri -5.5
S&P+ Projection: Missouri (34.8-25.2)

Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
Statistical profiles index.
Full Football Outsiders F/+ rankings can be found here.

The Basics
Category Kentucky Missouri
S&P+ (Rk) 70 40
Category Kentucky offense Missouri defense Missouri offense Kentucky defense
Yards per play (Rk) 5.45 (70) 5.58 (81) 6.04 (31) 5.46 (71)
Yards per game (Rk) 365.9 (103) 469.6 (114) 500.0 (14) 419.4 (79)
Points per possession (Rk) 2.08 (76) 2.02 (56) 2.37 (60) 2.60 (108)
Category Kentucky offense Missouri defense Missouri offense Kentucky defense
S&P+ (Rk) 28.2 (77) 28.2 (54) 34.1 (33) 29.6 (71)
Rushing S&P+ (Rk) 123.8 (11) 92.7 (97) 108.4 (51) 93.8 (91)
Passing S&P+ (Rk) 100.3 (68) 112.4 (27) 118.9 (25) 94.8 (85)
Standard Downs S&P+ (Rk) 115.8 (20) 104.7 (47) 117.9 (13) 97.9 (77)
Passing Downs S&P+ (Rk) 109.3 (51) 97.2 (77) 100.2 (76) 93.9 (90)
Q1 S&P+ (Rk) 112.8 (46) 107.7 (48) 133.2 (11) 102.5 (59)
Q2 S&P+ (Rk) 114.2 (36) 96.4 (81) 123.3 (21) 85.9 (112)
Q3 S&P+ (Rk) 117.9 (30) 107.4 (41) 123.5 (25) 83.4 (121)
Q4 S&P+ (Rk) 105.6 (54) 94.4 (90) 111.7 (36) 108.8 (39)

In the rushing/passing offense/defense matchups above, Mizzou wins three of four. Its pass defense is better than UK's pass offense, and both its run and pass offense are better than Kentucky. But Kentucky can run the ball. And that's a concern.

Five biggest advantages* (according to the advanced stats)

* or smallest disadvantages

Kentucky

  1. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 4 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
  2. Rushing Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 11 offense vs. No. 115 defense)
  3. Standard Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 10 offense vs. No. 98 defense)
  4. Rushing S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 97 defense)
  5. Second Down S&P+ (No. 11 offense vs. No. 96 defense)

Kentucky runs the ball efficiently on first down, runs efficiently on second down, and runs efficiently in short-yardage. Basically all five of UK's biggest advantages have to do with the ground game. The Tigers simply must figure out ways to throw the Wildcats off-schedule. If they can, they could win big. But they haven't given us much reason to believe they can.

Missouri

  1. Redzone S&P+ (No. 1 offense vs. No. 113 defense)
  2. Run Stuffs (No. 18 offense vs. No. 127 defense)
  3. Passing Downs Efficiency (Success Rate) (No. 33 offense vs. No. 125 defense)
  4. First Down S&P+ (No. 21 offense vs. No. 110 defense)
  5. Short-Yardage Rushing (No. 12 offense vs. No. 96 defense)

Yes, that's right: Mizzou currently has the No. 1 offense in Redzone S&P+. That's an incredible thing to realize considering how awful the Tigers were at finishing against WVU, but here we are. Even if UK is running the ball well, Mizzou could find an advantage by holding the Wildcats to field goals and scoring TDs on their own opportunities.

It is probably telling that the five biggest advantages for both team all come from the offensive side of the ball, huh?

Five Factors
Category Kentucky offense Missouri defense Missouri offense Kentucky defense
EXPLOSIVENESS 1.37 (22) 1.26 (73) 1.30 (48) 1.09 (6)
EFFICIENCY 41.7% (69) 41.3% (61) 41.8% (67) 46.6% (115)
FIELD POSITION 29.3 (76) 26.9 (19) 29.4 (74) 30.3 (87)
FINISHING DRIVES 5.1 (43) 4.8 (79) 5.3 (24) 4.9 (84)
TURNOVER MARGIN EXPECTED:
Kentucky -2.17 (96)
Missouri -2.09 (93)
ACTUAL
Kentucky -9 (125)
Missouri 0 (55)

Offensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Kentucky offense Missouri offense
Adj. Pace -6.4 (113) 8.3 (10)
Plays per game 67.1 (118) 82.7 (12)
Possessions per game 12.9 (79) 14.7 (8)
Std. Downs Run Rate 70.4% (12) 58.0% (74)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 38.6% (36) 31.7% (74)
% of solo tackles 72.9% (74) 76.1% (46)

There's value in knowing what you are and what you can do. Kentucky has never been particularly run-happy in Mark Stoops' tenure, but it became painfully obvious this year what the Wildcats' offensive strengths and weaknesses are, and offensive coordinator Eddie Gran is playing to them. Kentucky is a slow-tempo, run-first team this year, but as you see, the Wildcats are doing well with it. If they have to pass, they are in trouble. If they have to make a stop to save the game, they are in trouble. But they can run the ball, so they run it a lot.

Defensive Footprint
Category (Rk) Kentucky defense Missouri defense
Std. Downs Run Rate 61.3% (52) 58.6% (69)
Pass. Downs Run Rate 43.6% (5) 32.6% (82)
Overall Havoc Rate 13.5% (104) 14.9% (89)
Front 7 Havoc Rate 7.2% (109) 8.0% (90)
DB Havoc Rate 6.3% (68) 6.9% (50)
PD to INC 34.4% (52) 37.8% (26)

Opponents have chosen to run the ball a ton against Kentucky, even on passing downs. That could be a matter of individual preference (there haven't been many dramatically pass-happy teams on Kentucky's schedule so far), it could be an adjustment to facing a fierce pass rush (Kentucky tries to rush the passer pretty hard but doesn't do it incredibly well), and it could just be because running the ball against Kentucky is really easy.

Southern Miss' Ito Smith and George Payne rushed 52 times for 273 yards against UK. Florida's Lamical Perine rushed 17 times for 105. Alabama's Joshua Jacobs rushed 16 times for 100. Vandy's Ralph Webb rushed 18 times for 100. Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald rushed 16 times for 107. UK's defensive front is not very effective.

Of course, neither is Missouri's.

When Kentucky has the ball…

Standard Downs
Kentucky Offense Missouri Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 115.8 20 104.7 47 Kentucky
Standard Downs Success Rate 49.6% 42 47.0% 70 Kentucky
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.24 20 0.97 57 Kentucky
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.35 19 3.44 121 Kentucky big
SD Sack Rate 3.8% 37 2.5% 113 Kentucky big

Spoiler alert, but I think one of the keys to this game will be Kentucky's opportunity rate (percentage of carries gaining at least five yards). Mizzou hasn't proven it can be a huge threat in the UK backfield, but if the Tigers are at least holding the Wildcats to two or three yards on first down, they'll give themselves a chance to make stops.

That's far, far easier said than done, as you see here. Mizzou's front has been feckless when opponents are on schedule, and that was with Michael Scherer and Terry Beckner Jr.

Passing Downs
Kentucky Offense Missouri Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 109.3 51 97.2 77 Kentucky
Passing Downs Success Rate 26.4% 110 29.9% 56 Missouri big
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.86 43 1.49 97 Kentucky big
PD Line Yards per Carry 3.79 28 2.76 30
PD Sack Rate 14% 120 6.2% 87 Missouri

The advantage shifts if you can knock Kentucky off-schedule. The Wildcats just aren't very reliable passing the ball with Stephen Johnson, and if Mizzou's ever going to get its pass rush going, it might be on Saturday. Missouri's given up a few too many big plays on passing downs (the MTSU game almost single-handedly turned Missouri's PD IsoPPP numbers from reasonable strength to weakness), but the efficiency is there.

When Missouri has the ball…

Standard Downs
Missouri Offense Kentucky Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Standard Downs S&P+ 117.9 13 97.9 77 Missouri big
Standard Downs Success Rate 48.1% 56 50.9% 104 Missouri
Standard Downs IsoPPP 1.21 26 1.07 13 Kentucky
SD Line Yards per Carry 3.26 27 3.72 128 Missouri big
SD Sack Rate 1.8% 13 4.7% 67 Missouri big

The goal for Missouri's offense is to play one hell of a game of "Anything you can do, I can do better." Mizzou's offense is also excellent on standard downs and shaky on passing downs and holds many of the same advantages that Kentucky holds. Only, in theory, Missouri's advantages here are bigger. In situations in which opponents can either run or pass, Kentucky has gotten wrecked, at least near the line. Their big-play prevention ability is legit, but that doesn't matter much if you're constantly getting gashed for 6-8 yards.

Missouri should find some matchups it likes in the passing game and should be able to find steady yardage on the ground. If this isn't the case, the Tigers aren't good enough on third-and-8 to keep up on the scoreboard.

Passing Downs
Missouri Offense Kentucky Defense
Avg. Rk Avg. Rk Edge
Passing Downs S&P+ 100.2 76 93.9 90 Missouri
Passing Downs Success Rate 28.6% 88 36.4% 115 Missouri
Passing Downs IsoPPP 1.61 94 1.86 11 Kentucky big
PD Line Yards per Carry 2.23 123 3.86 117
PD Sack Rate 1.2% 2 10.1% 32 Missouri

Kentucky's defense is obviously far from amazing on passing downs -- in fact, the Wildcats have pretty much the same "bend-don't-break" vibe on all downs. Still, Missouri's 'advantages' here are minimal.

Individual Passing Stats
Team Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD INT Comp
Rate
Sacks Sack Rate Yards/
Att.
Kentucky Stephen Johnson 6'2, 183 JR 69 123 920 5 2 56.1% 10 7.5% 6.3
Kentucky Drew Barker 6'3, 225 SO 18 36 334 4 5 50.0% 8 18.2% 6.4
Missouri Drew Lock 6'4, 220 SO 137 257 1995 16 6 53.3% 5 1.9% 7.5
Missouri Marvin Zanders 6'1, 200 SO 9 11 105 1 0 81.8% 0 0.0% 9.5

I'm again curious about Marvin Zanders' role in this game. It was surprising not to see him playing at all against MTSU, especially considering how much Missouri was running the ball. Then again, the threat of the pass (with Lock) might have opened up some of the rushing opportunities. Regardless, Mizzou's use of Zanders has been incredibly unpredictable. We'll see what they have (or don't have) planned for him.

Individual Rushing Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards TD Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Kentucky Stanley Boom Williams RB 5'9, 196 JR 91 639 2 7.0 7.6 47.3%
Kentucky Benjamin Snell, Jr. RB 5'11, 220 FR 80 469 6 5.9 4.2 50.0%
Kentucky Stephen Johnson QB 6'2, 183 JR 46 199 1 4.3 2.4 43.5%
Kentucky Jojo Kemp RB 5'10, 200 SR 41 145 3 3.5 3.0 31.7%
Missouri Ish Witter RB 5'10, 200 JR 102 460 3 4.5 3.6 30.4%
Missouri Damarea Crockett RB 5'11, 220 FR 83 546 7 6.6 5.1 50.6%
Missouri Marvin Zanders QB 6'1, 200 SO 27 164 2 6.1 5.0 51.9%
Missouri Drew Lock QB 6'4, 220 SO 24 139 0 5.8 4.5 50.0%
NOTE: Quarterback run totals above do not include sacks (which are counted toward pass averages below) or kneeldowns.

Witter and Crockett, first 3 games: 70 carries, 264 yards (3.8 per carry), 2 TD

Witter and Crockett, last 4 games: 94 carries, 587 yards (6.2 per carry), 8 TD

More of the latter, please.

Individual Receiving Stats
Team Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Yds/
Catch
Yds/
Target
Catch Rate
Kentucky Garrett Johnson WR 5'11, 175 JR 34 22 277 2 12.6 8.2 64.7%
Kentucky Jeff Badet WR 6'0, 180 JR 30 17 392 3 23.1 13.1 56.7%
Kentucky C.J. Conrad TE 6'5, 245 SO 20 13 195 3 15.0 9.8 65.0%
Kentucky Ryan Timmons WR 5'10, 198 SR 13 10 156 0 15.6 12.0 76.9%
Kentucky Tavin Richardson WR 6'3, 216 SO 12 7 137 0 19.6 11.4 58.3%
Kentucky Dorian Baker WR 6'3, 208 JR 9 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0%
Kentucky Stanley Boom Williams RB 5'9, 196 JR 7 5 26 0 5.2 3.7 71.4%
Missouri J'Mon Moore WR 6'3, 205 JR 66 30 539 6 18.0 8.2 45.5%
Missouri Dimetrios Mason WR 6'0, 185 FR 35 23 268 0 11.7 7.7 65.7%
Missouri Emanuel Hall WR 6'3, 205 SO 27 17 281 2 16.5 10.4 63.0%
Missouri Johnathon Johnson WR 5'10, 185 FR 25 13 219 1 16.9 8.8 52.0%
Missouri Chris Black WR 6'0, 190 SR 23 14 199 1 14.2 8.7 60.9%
Missouri Sean Culkin TE 6'6, 250 SR 19 10 104 0 10.4 5.5 52.6%
Missouri Jason Reese TE 6'5, 250 JR 13 8 97 2 12.1 7.5 61.5%

Kentucky's iffy passing game only has so much to do with its receivers. This is an experienced, decent unit. And if the Wildcats watched any of last year's MU-UK film, they might have some things planned for C.J. Conrad. He had a nice game in Lexington.

Meanwhile, I'm curious about the tight ends' role for Mizzou, too. They were targeted 13 times last week.

Individual Defensive Stats
Team Name Pos Ht, Wt Year Tackles % of Team TFL Sacks Int PBU FF FR
Kentucky Jordan Jones LB 6'2, 220 SO 57.0 13.6% 5.5 2.0 0 2 0 0
Kentucky Mike Edwards S 6'0, 200 SO 42.5 10.2% 4.0 0.0 0 8 0 0
Kentucky Courtney Love LB 6'2, 242 JR 28.0 6.7% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Kentucky Josh Allen LB 6'5, 230 SO 25.5 6.1% 5.5 4.5 0 0 1 0
Kentucky Derrick Baity CB 6'3, 182 SO 25.5 6.1% 1.0 0.0 2 4 0 0
Kentucky Denzil Ware DE 6'2, 255 SO 24.5 5.9% 8.0 4.5 0 0 0 0
Kentucky Chris Westry CB 6'4, 195 SO 23.5 5.6% 0.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Kentucky Marcus McWilson S 6'0, 210 SR 22.5 5.4% 1.5 0.0 1 0 0 0
Kentucky Blake McClain DB 5'11, 200 SR 22.5 5.4% 0.5 0.0 2 2 0 0
Kentucky J.D. Harmon CB 6'2, 200 SR 19.0 4.5% 0.0 0.0 2 1 0 0
Kentucky Naquez Pringle DT 6'3, 320 JR 16.5 3.9% 1.5 0.5 0 0 0 0
Kentucky Courtney Miggins DT 6'5, 285 SR 16.0 3.8% 3.0 0.0 0 4 1 0
Kentucky Alvonte Bell DE 6'5, 260 JR 13.0 3.1% 0.5 0.5 0 1 0 0
Missouri Donavin Newsom LB 6'2, 240 SR 42.0 10.2% 3.0 2.0 0 2 0 0
Missouri Thomas Wilson S 5'10, 195 JR 40.5 9.9% 1.5 0.0 0 2 1 0
Missouri Michael Scherer LB 6'3, 235 SR 39.0 9.5% 3.5 0.5 1 2 0 0
Missouri Anthony Sherrils DB 6'0, 205 JR 28.0 6.8% 1.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Missouri Aarion Penton DB 5'10, 195 SR 22.0 5.4% 0.0 0.0 3 8 0 0
Missouri Charles Harris DL 6'3, 260 JR 20.0 4.9% 5.5 3.5 0 1 1 0
Missouri Terry Beckner, Jr. DL 6'4, 290 SO 20.0 4.9% 2.0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Missouri Joey Burkett LB 6'2, 225 JR 19.5 4.7% 1.0 0.0 1 0 0 0
Missouri Cale Garrett LB 6'3, 230 FR 19.0 4.6% 3.0 0.0 0 2 0 0
Missouri Cam Hilton S 6'0, 190 SO 18.5 4.5% 0.0 0.0 1 4 0 0
Missouri Ronnell Perkins S 6'0, 200 FR 17.5 4.3% 0.5 0.0 0 2 0 0
Missouri Brandon Lee LB 6'2, 225 SO 13.0 3.2% 1.0 0.0 0 1 1 1
Missouri Rickey Hatley DL 6'4, 320 SR 13.0 3.2% 1.0 1.0 0 0 0 0
Note: It appears "Fumble Returns" are getting pulled instead of "Fumble Recoveries." My apologies. Will try to get that corrected.

So many players, so little havoc.

Individual Special Teams Stats
Team Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg TB FC I20 FC/I20
Ratio
Kentucky Grant McKinniss 6'1, 210 FR 31 40.2 1 8 6 45.2%
Missouri Corey Fatony 5'11, 205 SO 40 43.9 1 10 13 57.5%
Team Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg TB TB% OOB Fair
Catches
Onside
Att
Onside
Success
Kentucky Austin MacGinnis 5'10, 180 JR 38 62.2 14 36.8% 0 0 0 0
Missouri Tucker McCann 6'0, 195 FR 44 63.6 32 72.7% 0 0 0 0
Missouri Turner Adams 6'0, 205 JR 0 0.0 0 0.0% 0 0 1 1
Team Place-Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT FG Pct
Kentucky Austin MacGinnis 5'10, 180 JR 20-21 9-11 81.8%
Missouri Tucker McCann 6'0, 195 FR 27-29 5-7 71.4%
Missouri Turner Adams 6'0, 205 JR 2-3 0-0 #DIV/0!
Team Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Kentucky Jeff Badet 6'0, 180 JR 10 24.6 0 0 0 (0)
Kentucky Benjamin Snell, Jr. 5'11, 220 FR 4 25.5 0 0 0 (0)
Missouri Alex Ross 6'1, 220 SR 10 22.2 0 0 0 (0)
Missouri Johnathon Johnson 5'10, 185 FR 9 18.0 0 0 0 (0)
Team Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD Fair Catch Fumbles (Lost)
Kentucky Charles Walker 5'11, 203 JR 8 13.3 1 13 2 (1)
Missouri Chris Black 6'0, 190 SR 9 11.3 0 4 1 (0)
Missouri Johnathon Johnson 5'10, 185 FR 5 13.8 1 4 2 (1)

If this is a punting battle, that might be good for Missouri. If this is a place-kicking battle, that might not (though Tucker McCann's offered nothing to complain about lately).

***

4 keys to the game

This game is pretty easy to assess, really.

1. Stay on schedule

Both offenses hold reasonably significant advantages on standard downs, even more than offenses are supposed to have on such downs. Which defense is more effectively able to knock the opposing offense off-schedule? The stats say Missouri's odds of pulling this off are decent but far from guaranteed.

Key stat: Success rate

2. 2-yard rushes vs. 5-yard rushes

This is more of a 1a, I guess. But while neither team is likely to have a particularly disruptive presence, any stop at or near the line will create an advantage.

Key stat: Opportunity rate

3. The first quarter

Losing to Middle Tennessee is at least somewhat excusable on paper (the Blue Raiders are a top-50 team, after all), but it was a gutting experience nonetheless. Now the Tigers have even less margin for error ... and no Scherer or Beckner. This is a recipe for either a) a slow, demoralized start or b) renewed inspiration/motivation.

So which is it?

Key stat: Q1 success rate

4. Explosives and turnovers

Kentucky holds the advantage in every explosiveness (IsoPPP) category above, and big plays killed Missouri last week. So did turnovers. The efficiency advantage the Tigers created nearly guaranteed victory but was undone all the same.

Efficiency defines most of your success, but big plays can turn the tables. So count 'em up.

Key stat: 20-yard gains and turnover margin

***

As demoralizing as last week was, Missouri should win this game. Kentucky has been quite a bit worse than MTSU this season, but the Wildcats' matchup advantages in terms of rushing offense and explosiveness have to give you pause.

I'm feeling pretty confident, in part because I'm anti-social -- I tend to gravitate toward the sentiment others aren't having. But in this case, I have the stats to back me up, I guess.