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Let’s take a look at a little snippet of Missouri’s offensive production against Power-5 defenses.
Run: 85 for 448 (5.27 avg.), 3 TD, fumble lost
Pass: 34-of-68, 427 yards (6.28 avg.), 4 TD
Sack: 3 for -24 (-8.00 avg.)
Total: 156 plays, 851 yards (5.46 avg.), fumble lost
Drives: 26
TD: 7
FG: 0
Points: 50
TOP: 46:15
Avg. Plays: 6.00
Avg. Yards: 32.7
Avg. TOP: 1:47
Plays Per Minute: 3.37
Looks pretty good, right? A healthy 4.8 yards a carry (counting sacks) and, while the pass accuracy isn’t great, the 6.3 yards an attempt and seven touchdowns overall against one turnover is a good ratio.
Scoring touchdowns on 27 percent of their drives and averaging 1.92 points a drive? That’s 29 points in a 15-drive game, which is what Missouri is averaging this year.
Not too shabby. So what’s the catch?
Well, those numbers are only from when Missouri is three scores (17 points) or more behind Power-5 opposition. So the defense is either in vanilla defense or has called off the dogs in some other way.
How have the Tigers acquitted themselves when the games have been close? Eh, you probably don’t want to know.
Leading
Run: 30 for 96 (3.20 avg.)
Pass: 8-of-16, 114 yards (7.13 avg.), 3 INT
Bad Snap:1 for -14
Total: 47 plays, 196 yards (4.17 avg.), 3 INT
Drives: 9
TD: 0
FG: 1
Points: 3
TOP: 17:08
Avg. Plays: 5.22
Avg. Yards: 21.8
Avg. TOP: 1:54
PPM: 2.74
—-
Tied
Run: 15 for 45 (3.00 avg.)
Pass: 15-of-27, 110 yards (4.07 avg.), TD
Total: 42 plays, 155 yards (3.69 avg.)
Drives: 10
TD: 1
FG: 0
Points: 7
TOP: 13:29
Avg. Plays: 4.20
Avg. Yards: 15.5
Avg. TOP: 1:20
PPM: 3.12
—-
Down 1-8 Points
Run: 20 for 95 (4.75 avg.)
Pass: 13-of-28, 223 yards (7.96 avg.), 2 TD, 2 INT, 2 fumbles lost
Bad Snap: 1 for -15
Total: 49 plays, 303 yards (6.18 avg.), 2 INT, 2 fumbles lost
Drives: 14
TD: 2
FG: 1
Points: 17
TOP: 12:45
Avg. Plays: 3.50
Avg. Yards: 21.6
Avg. TOP: 0:55
PPM: 3.84
—-
Down 9-16 Points
Run: 33 for 143 (4.33 avg.), fumble lost
Pass: 21-of-44, 299 yards (6.80 avg.), INT
Sack: 1 for 0
Total: 78 plays, 442 yards (5.67 avg.), INT, fumble lost
Drives: 15
TD: 0
FG: 1
Points: 3
TOP: 20:43
Avg. Plays: 5.20
Avg. Yards: 29.5
Avg. TOP: 1:23
PPM: 3.77
—-
Down 17+ Points
Run: 85 for 448 (5.27 avg.), 3 TD, fumble lost
Pass: 34-of-68, 427 yards (6.28 avg.), 4 TD
Sack: 3 for -24 (-8.00 avg.)
Total: 156 plays, 851 yards (5.46 avg.), fumble lost
Drives: 26
TD: 7
FG: 0
Points: 50
TOP: 46:15
Avg. Plays: 6.00
Avg. Yards: 32.7
Avg. TOP: 1:47
PPM: 3.37
——-
That whole “Leading” column comes from the Georgia game, when the Tigers had nine drives with which to expand on their lead and only did so with one field goal.
In fact, all 27 of the points Missouri has scored against Power-5 competition when the Tigers have been up, tied or down by only one score came against Georgia, over 15 drives.
The other four games in this study — 0 points in 18 drives. The only times the offense comes alive in a meaningful way is when Missouri is down by at least two scores.
The problems?
1. Can’t Run: 207 yards on 67 carries (3.09 per) when it’s a one-score game.
2. Turnovers Galore: two touchdowns against seven turnovers (five picks, two fumbles lost) in these situations.
So even the modest offensive gains from last year to this one — third in the SEC in passing offense against Power-5 competition, eighth in total offense, 10th in rush offense, 12th in points per game -- are a little bit of fool’s gold.
I mean, not to be a Negative Nancy, but it just kind of shows that, while the Tigers’ young offense can be intermittently powerful, it hasn’t really done so with anything on the line.
Here are the splits from each Power-5 game, if you’re curious:
West Virginia
Tied
Run: 4 for 10 (2.50 avg.)
Pass: 3-of-5, 11 yards (2.20 avg.)
Total: 9 plays, 21 yards (2.33 avg.)
Drives: 2
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 2:33
Avg. Plays: 4.5
Avg. Yards: 10.5
Avg. TOP: 1:17
PPM: 3.53
——
Down 1-8 Points
Run: 3 for 33 (11.0 avg.)
Pass: 0-of-2
Total: 5 plays, 33 yards (6.60 avg.)
Drives: 1
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 1:11
Avg. Plays: 5.0
Avg. Yards: 33.0
Avg. TOP: 1:11
PPM: 4.23
——
Down 9-16 Points
Run: 15 for 46 (3.07 avg.), fumble lost
Pass: 10-of-24, 189 yards (7.88 avg.)
Total: 39 plays, 235 yards (6.03 avg.), fumble lost
Drives: 7
TD: 0
FG: 1
Points: 3
TOP: 9:10
Avg. Plays: 5.57
Avg. Yards: 33.6
Avg. TOP: 1:19
PPM: 4.25
——
Down 17+ Points
Run: 24 for 100 (4.17 avg.)
Pass: 11-of-22, 82 yards (3.73 avg.), TD
Sack: 1 for -9
Total: 47 plays, 173 yards (3.68 avg.)
Drives: 6
TD: 1
FG: 0
Points: 8
TOP: 12:53
Avg. Plays: 7.83
Avg. Yards: 28.8
Avg. TOP: 2:08
PPM: 3.65
--—-
Georgia
Leading
Run: 30 for 96 (3.20 avg.)
Pass: 8-of-16, 114 yards (7.13 avg.), 3 INT
Bad Snap:1 for -14
Total: 47 plays, 196 yards (4.17 avg.), 3 INT
Drives: 9
TD: 0
FG: 1
Points: 3
TOP: 17:08
Avg. Plays: 5.22
Avg. Yards: 21.8
Avg. TOP: 1:54
PPM: 2.74
——
Tied
Run: 3 for 9 (3.00 avg.)
Pass: 5-of-7, 63 yards (9.00 avg.), TD
Total: 10 plays, 72 yards (7.20 avg.), TD
Drives: 1
TD: 1
FG: 0
Points: 7
TOP: 2:14
Avg. Plays: 10.0
Avg. Yards: 72.0
Avg. TOP: 2:14
PPM: 4.48
——
Down 1-8 Points
Run: 3 for 4 (1.33 avg.)
Pass: 10-of-15, 199 yards (13.3 avg.), 2 TD, 2 fumbles lost
Total: 18 plays, 203 (11.3 avg.), 2 TD, 2 fumbles lost
Drives: 5
TD: 2
FG: 1
Points: 17
TOP: 3:20
Avg. Plays: 3.60
Avg. Yards: 40.6
Avg. TOP: 0:40
PPM: 3.60
--——
LSU
Tied
Run: 1 for 2
Pass: 2-of-5, 9 yards (1.80 avg.)
Total: 6 plays, 11 yards (1.83 avg.)
Drives: 2
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 2:19
Avg. Plays: 3.00
Avg. Yards: 5.50
Avg. TOP: 1:10
PPM: 2.59
——
Down 1-8
Run: 3 for 20 (6.67 avg.)
Pass: 1-of-4, 8 yards (2.00 avg.), INT
Total: 7 plays, 28 yards (4.00 avg.), INT
Drives: 2
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 1:47
Avg. Plays: 3.50
Avg. Yards: 14.0
Avg. TOP: 0:54
PPM: 3.93
——
Down 9-16
Run: 2 for 3 (1.67 avg.)
Pass: 2-of-3, 20 yards (6.67 avg.)
Total: 5 plays, 23 yards (4.60 avg.)
Drives: 1
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 1:46
Avg. Plays: 5.00
Avg. Yards: 23.0
Avg. TOP: 1:46
PPM: 2.83
——
Down 17+
Run: 14 for 67 (4.79 avg.)
Pass: 13-of-26, 151 yards (5.81 avg.), TD
Sack: 2 for -15 (-7.50 avg.)
Total: 42 plays, 203 yards (4.83 avg.), TD
Drives: 7
TD: 1
FG: 0
Points: 7
TOP: 12:28
Avg. Plays: 6.00
Avg. Yards: 29.0
Avg. TOP: 1:47
PPM: 3.37
--——
Florida
Tied
Run: 6 for 20 (3.33 avg.)
Pass: 2-of-6, 10 yards (1.67 avg.)
Total: 12 plays, 30 yards (2.50 avg.)
Drives: 4
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 4:58
Avg. Plays: 3.00
Avg. Yards: 7.50
Avg. TOP: 1:15
PPM: 2.42
——
Down 1-8 Points
Run: 4 for 2
Pass: 0-of-3, INT
Total: 7 plays, 2 yards (0.29 avg.), INT
Drives: 3
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 2:24
Avg. Plays: 2.33
Avg. Yards: 0.67
Avg. TOP: 0:48
PPM: 2.92
——
Down 9-16 Points
Run: 7 for 45
Pass: 1-of-4, 15 yards, INT
Total: 11 plays, 60 yards (5.45 avg.), INT
Drives: 2
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 3:39
Avg. Plays: 5.50
Avg. Yards: 30.0
Avg. TOP: 1:50
PPM: 3.01
——
Down 17+ Points
Run: 29 for 198 (6.83 avg.), 2 TD, fumble lost
Pass: 4-of-9, 73 yards (8.11 avg.)
Total: 38 plays, 271 yards (7.13 avg.), fumble lost
Drives: 7
TD: 2
FG: 0
Points: 14
TOP: 12:06
Avg. Plays: 5.43
Avg. Yards: 38.7
Avg. TOP: 1:44
PPM: 3.14
--——
Kentucky
Tied
Run: 1 for 4
Pass: 3-of-4, 17 yards (4.25 avg.)
Total: 5 plays, 21 yards (4.20 avg.)
Drives: 1
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 1:25
Avg. Plays: 5.00
Avg. Yards: 21.0
Avg. TOP: 1:25
PPM: 3.53
——
Down 1-8 Points
Run: 7 for 36 (5.14 avg.)
Pass: 2-of-4, 16 yards (4.00 avg.)
Bad Snap: 1 for -15
Total: 12 plays, 37 yards (3.08 avg.)
Drives: 3
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 4:03
Avg. Plays: 4.00
Avg. Yards: 12.3
Avg. TOP: 1:21
PPM: 2.96
——
Down 9-16 Points
Run: 9 for 49 (5.44 avg.)
Pass: 8-of-13, 75 yards (5.77 avg.)
Sack: 1 for 0
Total: 23 plays, 124 yards (5.39 avg.)
Drives: 5
TD: 0
FG: 0
Points: 0
TOP: 6:08
Avg. Plays: 4.60
Avg. Yards: 24.8
Avg. TOP: 1:14
PPM: 3.75
——
Down 17+ Points
Run: 18 for 83 (4.61 avg.), TD
Pass: 6-of-11, 121 yards (11.0 avg.), 2 TD
Total: 29 plays, 204 yards (7.03 avg.)
Drives: 6
TD: 3
FG: 0
Points: 21
TOP: 8:48
Avg. Plays: 4.83
Avg. Yards: 34.0
Avg. TOP: 1:28
PPM: 3.30