With only three games remaining second place is still there for the taking as Arkansas has to go to Kentucky, South Carolina and finish with LSU at home. KenPom projects them to lose two of those games with the game at South Carolina being a slight lean towards the Gamecocks. If Arky finished 13-5 that means Ole Miss or Texas A&M can tie if either wins out. The Aggies have Auburn, @Florida and Alabama left on the schedule, with a projection of 2-1 there (I think that Florida game will depend heavily on if Dorian Finney-Smith and Michael Frazier are still out). Ole Miss has @LSU, @Alabama and Vanderbilt left, KenPom projects a 1-2 record there losing both road games. From my own eyes, I would give A&M the better chance to get to 3-0 since their only road game is at Florida, who is struggling right now.
All that gets blown up if Arkansas beats Kentucky though.
But seriously... that isn't going to happen.
At the bottom, Missouri finally won again, beating Florida. And all it took was a Herculean shooting night from Freshman Namon Wright. The Tigers are almost certain to finish last but with a home game against Auburn and a road game against Mississippi State, it's not out of the question that they tie for last with Auburn. But after suffering through 13 straight losses, I think Mizzou fans would take a 2-2 finish (and KenPom still project them to beat Auburn at home).
Listed is the rank, team and record, with their KenPom ranking and rating, their RPI ranking and score, and their BPI rank and score. Followed by me being quippy.
1. Kentucky 28-0 (15-0)
The only thing more exciting for the Wildcats than winning in Starkville was getting to stay an extra night due to the weather!
2. Arkansas 23-5 (12-3)
Arky has the toughest test of their season heading into Lexington... good luck, we're all counting on you.
3. Georgia 18-9 (9-6)
After a rough week UGa returned to form with a win on the road at Ole Miss (along with a road win against Bama), they needed those wins.
4. Ole Miss 19-9 (10-5)
Narrowly beat MSU and UT before losing to UGa at home, not a great streak for Ole Miss.
5. Texas A&M 19-8 (10-5)
Damn near completed the comeback of all comebacks in Fayetteville after getting bombed out of there in the first half.
6. LSU 20-8 (9-6)
They'll be a tough out in March, but I can't move them up too much because they don't have any real great wins and some pretty bad losses.
7. Vanderbilt 15-12 (6-9)
Freshmen are growing up and have now won 5 of their last 7... all despite playing in an awful building on a horrible court.
8. Alabama 17-11 (7-8)
#GRANTSKETBALL might be coming to a merciful end. They are painful to watch.
9. Tennessee 14-12 (6-9)
4th straight loss and reality has set in in Knoxville I think. They just aren't very good. Tyndall has they going at it each night, but there just isn't enough on the roster.
10. Florida 13-15 (6-9)
Hit absolute rock bottom with a road loss to 20 loss Missouri. On behalf of RockMNation, I'd like to thank you for hitting rock bottom.
11. South Carolina 13-14 (4-11)
A lot of fight, not a lot of points.
12. Mississippi State 12-16 (5-10)
Real talk, I think it's a mistake if Mississippi State fires Rick Ray. He's still got those guys fighting and they're getting better. The entire program has improved year after year.
13. Auburn 12-16 (4-11)
Yep, they're still bad.
14. Missouri 8-20 (2-13)
For a moment I thought about putting Mizzou not last just because they finally won a game. In the end, it was just nice to get that monkey off their back. Doubt too much momentum comes from that with a trip to Georgia looming.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
KenPom, because it's awesome and the best:
I try to measure skills based on the opportunities for those skills to be observed. On the team level, this often means ratings the offense (and defense) on points scored (and allowed) per possession. That is the basis for the ratings system. If you're looking for info on what the columns mean on the ratings mean, please continue. If you don't like the ratings, wonder why I have your team too low, or wonder why the ratings don't look like the AP top 25, go here. (For information on preseason ratings, see this and this and this.)
RPI, the NCAA selection committee uses this:
The RPI (Rating Percentage Index) is a measure of strength of schedule and how a team does against that schedule. Created in 1981, the RPI is a tool used in selecting and seeding the 68 teams for the NCAA Men's basketball Division I tournament. RPI data includes games against Division I schools only.
I decided that the RPI is too stupid to keep using, so I'm switching to Sagarin.
Sagarin, because it's similar to KenPom:
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different methods, with more total weight to the two completely SCORE-BASED methods and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.
BPI, Joe Lunardi uses this:
The Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a team rating system that accounts for the final score, pace of play, site, strength of opponent and absence of key players in every Division I men's game. BPI can be used to measure both how well a team has performed (going far beyond just wins and losses) and how powerful it is likely to be going forward.