I went back and read the Study Hall from the last Alabama game because I didn’t want this to just be a repeat of what was said weeks ago. But there were a lot of very central themes from that game which seemed to carry over to this one.
Going into the game, there was some talk that since Mizzou had Kobe Brown for this game that it might make a difference. In the home game against Alabama the only player capable of generating any offense that day was Isiaih Mosley, who wasn’t even in Nashville yesterday. Add in one weapon but subtract another.
The central themes didn’t go away even with Kobe Brown on the floor. While Missouri was able to play the Tennessee bigs off the floor the day before, Alabama provides more mobility with similar levels of elite length. They have more agile athletes where Tennessee wants to be more physical. So Mizzou can’t play anyone off the floor for Alabama, and their ability to affect shots and protect the rim caused Missouri to miss a lot... like, a LOT of shots at the rim.
So when you’re struggling to convert at the rim as much as Missouri did, then you definitely need to shoot it well. And that didn’t happen either.
Alabama is going to be a one seed for a reason, and for a good portion of the game Mizzou made them work. The Tigers came out of the half and took a 2 point deficit to a four point lead in a hurry. But after the 17:51 mark the offense went mostly dormant. And that was the key stretch. Because for the first 6+ minutes of the half Alabama could only muster 5 points. They were missing everything. Missouri started hot, but went through an 0-for-8 stretch from 17:51 to 14:23 when D’Moi Hodge got a run out dunk.
It was right after that when Alabama began to find their footing on offense. The Tigers followed suit, but just for a few possessions. I thought the key miss was after Brandon Miller made a three to put the Tide up 5, Mizzou’s next possession generated what was perhaps D’Moi Hodge’s best look all day. But his shot rimmed out. Noah Gurley hit a three on the other end and Mizzou never got it back to within five points.
- One of the best things about the Missouri offense is the amount of rim attempts: they’ve had three games where they’ve shot below 40% from inside the arc and lost all three. Unless you’re just going wild from three, that’s a pretty unsustainable percentage.
- In a lot of ways the defense was more than enough: Alabama was able to get things loosened in the second half, but they had 17 turnovers and forced just five from Missouri. Mizzou shot the ball so poorly a 4:1.2 BCI advantage wasn’t enough.
- I also found the rebounding funny: Mizzou wasn’t awful on the defensive glass, but they were essentially wiped clean from the offensive glass.
An 11 point loss when you missed 18 threes and 27 twos may be hard to swallow but it’s kind of what Alabama does. Their 2-point FG defense is the best in the country, and their three point defense is 3rd. Shooting is difficult against that length. Mizzou was the 17th team Alabama has held to a 2FG shooting below 40%, and only one of those games did they lose. That was a road game against Texas A&M when the Aggies had a 52.8% free throw rate. So a 12% free throw rate wasn’t going to be enough.
Your Trifecta: D’Moi Hodge, DeAndre Gholston, Noah Carter
On the season: D’Moi Hodge 51, Kobe Brown 50, Noah Carter 23, Nick Honor 22, DeAndre Gholston 20, Sean East II 18, Tre Gomillion 6, Isiaih Mosley 5, Mohamed Diarra 4
D’Moi Hodge overtook Kobe Brown in the season long trifecta by having a terrific performance yesterday. Hodge had a season high 9 rebounds to go with his 21 points, 2 assists and 2 steals.
Greenlight Gholston had the green light on in attempting 17 shots. He had his issues converting around the rim, and might’ve boosted his game score with a couple late baskets. But Gholston was also one of the few guys who could get shots off on his own.
I don’t want to repeat myself too much but this really just feels like a tough matchup, and only really for the Tide defense. Before the season I noted that Alabama was going to be as good as their defense would take it. The offense, under Nate Oats, has always been there. They’re prone to dry spells because of their emphasis on the three point shot. If the D is there then it makes it easier to stay in games when the threes aren’t dropping. And well you can see the results. D’Moi was great. Everyone else wasn’t. The entire team had just 5 turnovers and those offensive ratings are ugly. The Floor Rates also ugly.
Not having Tre Gomillion and Isiaih Mosley in the lineup hurt. A shortened bench for two straight games also contributed to some tired legs. But it was still a successful tournament, and a successful regular season. You beat Tennessee again, and you gave Alabama fits. Missouri belongs.
The NCAA Tournament Selection Show and bracket reveal is tomorrow and Missouri will have their name called. We’ll have full coverage including our Live Stream after the Selection Show, so I hope you tune in. Also be on the lookout this morning for the next Bracket Projection from Matt Watkins, who has been doing a bang up job with his Bracket Racket posts.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%): Quite simply, this calculates a player’s shooting percentage while taking into account 2FG%, 3FG%, and FT%. The formula is Total Points / 2 * (FGA + (0.475+FTA)). The 0.475 is a Free Throw modifier. KenPomeroy and other College Basketball sites typically use 0.475, while the NBA typically uses 0.44. That’s basically what TS% is. A measure of scoring efficiency based on the number of points scored over the number of possessions in which they attempted to score, more here.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%): This is similar to TS%, but takes 3-point shooting more into account. The formula is FGM + (0.5 * 3PM) / FGA
So think of TS% as scoring efficiency, and eFG% as shooting efficiency, more here.
Expected Offensive Rebounds: Measured based upon the average rebounds a college basketball team gets on both the defensive and offensive end. This takes the overall number of missed shots (or shots available to be rebounded) and divides them by the number of offensive rebounds and compares them with the statistical average.
AdjGS: A take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual’s “score” for a given game. The “adjustment” in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game’s points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.
%Min: This is easy, it’s the percentage of minutes a player played which were available to them. That would be 40 minutes, or 45 if the game goes to overtime.
Usage%: This “estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor” (via sports-reference.com/cbb). The usage of those possessions is determined via a formula using field goal and free throw attempts, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. The higher the number, the more prevalent a player is (good or bad) in a team’s offensive outcome.
Offensive Rating (ORtg): Similar to Adjusted game score, but this looks at how many points per possession a player would score if they were averaged over 100 possessions. This combined with Usage Rate gives you a sense of impact on the floor.
IndPoss: This is approximates how many possessions an individual is responsible for within the teams calculated possessions.
ShotRate%: This is the percentage of teams shots a player takes while on the floor.
AstRate%: Attempts to estimate the number of assists a player has on teammates made field goals when he is on the floor. The formula is basically AST / (((MinutesPlayed / (Team MP / 5)) * Team FGM) - FGM).
TORate%: Attempts to estimate the number of turnovers a player commits in their individual possessions. The formula is simple: TO / IndPoss
Floor%: Via sports-reference.com/cbb: Floor % answers the question, “When a Player uses a possession, what is the probability that his team scores at least 1 point?”. The higher the Floor%, the more frequently the team probably scores when the given player is involved.
Touches/Possession : Using field goal attempts, free throw attempts, assists and turnovers, touches attempt to estimate, “the number of times a player touched the ball in an attacking position on the floor.” Take the estimated touches and divide it by the estimated number of possessions for which a player was on the court, and you get a rough idea of how many times a player touched the ball in a given possession. For point guards, you’ll see the number in the 3-4 range. For shooting guards and wings, 2-3. For an offensively limited center, 1.30. You get the idea. Anyway, using the Touches figure, we can estimate the percentage of time a player “in an attacking position” passes, shoots, turns the ball over, or gets fouled.
In attempting to update Study Hall, I’m moving away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.